The R squared for jobs leading 17 weeks is 0.60 which is almost three times higher than the correlation for initial claims leading 20 weeks.

The strongest staticical correlation is with jobs leading 17 months. It should be obvious even visually that claims leading is the wrong conclusion.

]]>The R squared for jobs leading 17 weeks is 0.60 which is almost three times higher than the correlation for initial claims leading 20 weeks.

The strongest staticical correlation is with jobs leading 17 months. It should be obvious even visually that claims leading is the wrong conclusion.

]]>In the previous article I had incorrectly stated GDP would be released today on the 27th. It will actually be released Friday the 30th.

The consensus is for about 3.2% growth. There is great potential for disappointment Friday.

]]>In the previous article I had incorrectly stated GDP would be released today on the 27th. It will actually be released Friday the 30th.

The consensus is for about 3.2% growth. There is great potential for disappointment Friday.

]]>In making the histogram I decided to take the log differences between the PEses and the estimate. I believe this is a more consistent way to look at the residuals. It also means the current valuation labeled as being 58% above the red best fit line in the article is only 2.6 standard deviations above the red best fit line rather than more than 3 as I stated in the article.

The distribution is somewhat normal; 77% of the residuals are within one standard deviation.

]]>In making the histogram I decided to take the log differences between the PEses and the estimate. I believe this is a more consistent way to look at the residuals. It also means the current valuation labeled as being 58% above the red best fit line in the article is only 2.6 standard deviations above the red best fit line rather than more than 3 as I stated in the article.

The distribution is somewhat normal; 77% of the residuals are within one standard deviation.

]]>**Disclosure: **I am short [[SPY]].

**Disclosure: **I am short [[SPY]].