John Gaats

Shanghai Rallies, Recoups Most of Thursday's Drop

Is the roller coaster over? The heavy handedness of the governement is indeed troubling.

Quarterly Round-Up of the Global Stock Market's Performance

The question is how can we benefit from these advances. We don't even have an ETF for most of these indexes.

The Housing Crisis: Symptom or Cause of Market Volatility?

Tough time for the hedge funds. If they don't lose on the housing market, they lose on equity market. Bond market is tough to figure so there are hardly any sure bets. They can still go short on equity like crasy. Then that is not a sure bet either.

Japanese Exporters Look Poised to Profit from Weak Yen

TM has been a net loser this year. Is it because our investors conveniently ignore all potentials you pointed out here? Even without the currency effect, dominate position in the global car market is something to consider for the investors. However, nothing seems to matter.

Japan's Auto Parts Makers Gaining Attention

I have heard some stockholder thanked Toyota with her tears. It is quite a suprise because TM has been losing money on NYSE. Is there a disparity between Toyota in the Japanese market and NYSE? How is Toyota doing in the Tokyo exchange?

Yield Curve Versus Stocks On a Decade By Decade Basis

Good work.

Looks that the correlation changes from time to time. Right now, the yeild curve is like a back door for short sellers to hajack the market. If the correlation you mentioned here holds for good, the market could be controlled by special interest groups at the time of their choosing. That's the kind of thing that worries me.

Thanks again for the good work.

Short Interest Hits New Record High On NYSE

I think Duke University has some seminar papers distinguising short sales and stock fundamentals.

ABB Ltd: A Powerful Play on China

I like ABB too. But I am suspicious about your China talk. I thought the Chinese electricity project has topped. Can you give us more detailed information to back up your cliams?

Rising Yield Curve Generally Bad For Stock Performance

Concluding that rising bond price is bad for stock based the two curves are apart is at best unscientific. I can pick two stock price curves that move in opposite directions (they are thousands of curves). But I cannot conclude one is bad for another. The most likely conclusion is that they are not corelated. I challenge you do a rolling correlation. Confirm your conclusion if they are negatively correlated. Based on my observation, the correlation is not stable. Therefore, You cannot conclude anything just by that chart.

China Natural Gas: There's Still Time to Catch Some Growth

Sounds like a Chinese local player. Does it plan to be exchange traded any time soon?

Market Outlook Continues to Be Bullish

The bullishness has not been shown much in terms of the equity market. Then who said the market was a good measure of the economy. The way I see from the market index, investors seem to have some shame to hide. Then of course it is the market's way to hide things. In short, bullish is not something tangible when you bid and ask.

Best Buy Execs Comment on China Retail Strategy

It shows some learning curve for BBY in China. Long term vise, BBY will be a lot less attractive without a good Chinese strategy. So far, it is on the right path. Just not on a straght line.

Marathon Oil: High Proportion Of Value In The Downstream Refining Business

Your statement here is arcane and terse. AS an MRO investor, I would rather you give more reasonable analysis than than just to endorse a price. When you use the term NPV, I realise you were trying to discount the future income. However, because of assumptions you mentioned, the analysis is rather limited. It takes a lot of courage to publish it. And the likelyhood is to be proven incorrect not long after.

More Volatility in Sight for China's Markets

So far, the volatility you dread so much is a V-Shaped drop and recovery. There is nothing new if that is what you predict. Using Nasdaq to point to the future of Chinese stock market is really a guess work. You can point to any market say it is a Nasdaq. I will challenge you to predict when and how much. Before anything visiable, I am long on China. You can short it if you believe in what you said. Or you can stay out of it altogether. Any way, talk is cheap. Market is about risk taking and getting rewarded for taking the risk.

The Impact of Long Bonds on This Market

Good blog! I am so happy to read it even while I am still losing on stock. What confused me was I thought rising ten year was a good thing because it fixs the inverted yeild curve. However, the market got really panic. Looks to me that the bond market is at least partially driven by reasoning. Stock market is mostly speculation. B.T.W, can you enlighten me on correlation between our economy and the Fed rate? I suspect the correlation built between stock indexes and the fed rate is more of a superstition. Thanks.