Seeking Alpha

John Gilliam

 
View as an RSS Feed
View John Gilliam's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The Curious Case Of The Blyth Buyout [View article]
    When CVSL adjusted their offer to address the issues BTH management had with the original offer and BTH management again rejected it, it became difficult to justify owning a significant stake in BTH. Obviously, CVSL management reached the same conclusion. As would be expected, management's indifference to shareholders and the announcement of CVSL's withdrawal has caused the stock to fall almost back down to the price where I first recommended it. At this price, it could prove to be a bargain if Visalus starts to turn the corner and/or management begins to take steps that reflect concern for shareholder value. Until that happens, it is likely that BTH shares will stay in a trading range at a low valuation unless we see a short squeeze. The short interest as reported would typically indicate the potential for large gains on any good news. We have seen that occur several times. However, I am now convinced there may be more to the short position than just speculators making bets against the stock. The trading action over the last six months suggests to me that the players behind the BTH short position may know more than the rest of us. The trading action in the days following the CVSL offer were quite telling - the spread between trading price and offer price that evolved on the first trading day after the deal was announced was one of the largest I have ever seen. I still own a very small number of "house money paid for" BTH shares, but frankly it is not enough to hold my attention. I still check the price from time to time, but cannot commit significant capital here when there are so many companies out there with good prospects and management that will try to create value for ALL shareholders.

    Best of luck to all who posted here with honest commentary.
    Feb 9 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CVSL Puts Blyth In Play As Public Float Disappears [View article]
    When CVSL adjusted their offer to address the issues BTH management had with the original offer and BTH management again rejected it, it became difficult to justify owning a significant stake in BTH. Obviously, CVSL management reached the same conclusion. As would be expected, BTH management's indifference to shareholders and the announcement of CVSL's withdrawal has caused the stock to fall almost back down to the price where I first recommended it. At this price, it could prove to be a bargain if Visalus starts to turn the corner and/or management begins to take steps that reflect concern for shareholder value. Until one of these occurs, it is unlikely that BTH shares will make a sustained move higher and the best hope traders have for upward price movement is a short squeeze. The short interest as reported would typically indicate the potential for large gains on any good news. We have seen that occur several times. However, I am now convinced there may be more to the short position than just speculators making bets against the stock. The trading action over the last six months suggests to me that the players behind the BTH short position may know more than the rest of us. The trading action in the days following the CVSL offer were quite telling - the spread between trading price and offer price that evolved on the first trading day after the deal was announced was one of the largest I have ever seen. I still own a very small number of "house money" BTH shares, but frankly it is not enough to hold my attention. I still check the price from time to time, but cannot commit significant capital here when there are so many companies out there with good prospects and management that will try to create value for ALL shareholders.

    Best of luck to all who posted here with honest commentary.
    Feb 9 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVSL Puts Blyth In Play As Public Float Disappears [View article]
    This or that - you may be on to something there (HLF/BTH!!). Thank you for your comments and sense of humor. Have to point out how consistent you have been on this one, with a link to your original comment on my Blyth thesis -

    http://bit.ly/1aJCoW7

    That is a link to your quote from August 31 when you gave us the rationale for your BTH price prediction when you said "I think the stock keeps going lower...." from where it was trading then ($8.99 close on August 31). Today's close at $14.16 is not what you hope for after trading in the high 15s yesterday, but its still a nice 57% return in the 60 days since your "keeps going lower" prediction.

    Your thesis on the fundamental story could one day prove to be correct , but near term BTH has been about the short to float imbalance story that evolved to include whales and whale watchers chasing a large stake.

    I have a feeling your might still stop by from time to time. :-) Best of luck with your trading This or That.
    Oct 31 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVSL Puts Blyth In Play As Public Float Disappears [View article]
    This or that - you may be on to something there (HLF/BTH!!). Thank you for your comments and sense of humor. Have to point out how consistent you have been on this one, with a link to your original comment on my Blyth thesis -

    http://bit.ly/1aJCoW7

    That is a link to your quote from August 31 when you gave us the rationale for your BTH price prediction when you said "I think the stock keeps going lower...." from where it was trading then ($8.99 close on August 31). Today's close at $14.16 is not what you hope for after trading in the high 15s yesterday, but its still a nice 57% return in the 60 days since your "keeps going lower" prediction.

    Your thesis on the fundamental story could one day prove to be correct , but near term BTH has been about the short to float imbalance story that evolved to include whales and whale watchers chasing a large stake.

    I have a feeling your might still stop by from time to time. :-) Best of luck with your trading This or That.
    Oct 30 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVSL Puts Blyth In Play As Public Float Disappears [View article]
    Arkin, thank you for your comments. I am not sure that looking at four month old filings, that provide a snap shot of the financials at 7 months old of a company that is now 11 months old and has grown from zero to a $100m annual revenue run rate through acqusitions during that time frame is going to get you the answer you need. If you read sathkumara's comments below, I think he addresses this quite well.
    Oct 30 10:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVSL Puts Blyth In Play As Public Float Disappears [View article]
    Ranma, thank you for your comments and for doing the heavy lifting here for me. Your last two comments were exactly what I would have written if I got here first. Thank you very much!
    Oct 30 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVSL Puts Blyth In Play As Public Float Disappears [View article]
    Thanks for your comments sathkumara. I agree, this is all about track record and credibility. While I understand why some want to to look at CVSL's financials and tell us why this deal cannot happen, the same could have been said for the Longaberger deal, Agel and really all of the deals that CVSL has done so far. CVSL is a start up with a unique approach in many respects. If there were no Richmont or Rochon involvement, I would agree that a CVSL deal to buy all outstanding shares of Blyth would be unlikely.

    I would love to see what Rochon could do with Blyth's considerable assets. Thanks again sathkumara
    Oct 30 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blyth/CVSL Conference Call Update [View article]
    Click here to see one of the many lies you recently posted under old articles of mine -
    http://bit.ly/19W9r8Y

    You posted - "VTRO no longer exists, like almost every other stock this author has attempted to pump over the years. It was trading at > $3 at the time this article was written. Now it is zero."

    Lie #1 - you said "It was trading at > $3 when it was written, now it is zero".

    It was actually trading below $3 when it was written (Back then it usually took a few days from submission to publication on SA). Vertro was acquired by Inuvo for 1.54 Inuvo shares per Vertro share two years ago yesterday so the value received for each Vertro share is today worth about $2.63 It traded up well over 100% after the article was published and traded north of $5 for several months after the article was written. It later got creamed by a Google ad policy change that fundamentally altered its business model and Inuvo scooped it up because it was so undervalued. It is certainly not among my best performers where it stands today, but it may be when all is said and done. The Inuvo shares we received will likely reach levels that will be more valuable than Vertro at $5+. There is a free one for you evo, a way to make the money back that you have lost in your BTH short. Buy a little INUV.

    It is a lie to post on this board "...now it is zero". Sometimes you come up with sleight of hand that makes what you write only partially untrue or merely deceptive. But this is a flat out lie. You said the stock went to zero and the value of the Inuvo shares we got for each Vertro share is at $2.63.

    There are many more direct lies, half truths and deceptions that you have posted under my articles, but I am too busy to take the time to list them all here. I suspect you think hiding behind that screen name allows you to lie and deceive and do so even to the point of actionable libel without getting sued. In reality, your screen name hides little, as SA will provide enough information to determine who you are if subpoenaed. The real reason you don't have to worry about getting sued is because anyone who reads what you post here realizes that you probably don't have much money or assets of value to make it worth pursuing.

    I have outed you as a liar and a troll. I am not going to respond to your posts, except for the same canned response to make sure we keep the record straight. Your charge going forward will be to review all of my articles, look at stock charts and come up with new lies to post in the comment sections of each one. In your downtime, you can ponder the question of why no one ever chooses to "follow" you on Seeking Alpha.

    Oh yeah, and that goes for all your other screen names (if any) too.
    Oct 18 01:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blyth/CVSL Conference Call Update [View article]
    Re: IP checking - that would tell me if you post under the evo34 handle from the same internet connection only.

    If I posted something about you that turned out to be inaccurate, I might get overwhelmed by negative feedback from all of your followers. ;-)
    Oct 17 02:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blyth/CVSL Conference Call Update [View article]
    As usual, what you are posting here is untrue. I am sure that anyone who has ever paid your posts enough attention to fact check you has realized what you do. That is why you have zero followers.

    So here is a little homework for you evo34 - run the returns on each long article I have written and post the returns here. Be sure to give us a 3 day, 5 day, 30 day and 6 month return.. The majority of my long picks have made those who bought the stocks indicated very nice returns and usually in a relatively short time frame. But don't let the facts get in the way of one of your patented posts that are as deceptive as they are negative.
    Oct 17 02:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Herbalife Whale Watchers Watching The Wrong Whale? [View article]
    Maybe you did not read that entire article or maybe you lack the proper frame of reference. Or maybe you are right, Rochon really just rode on Richard Rogers coattails. If you believe that, I have a bridge for sale on the west coast that you should consider adding to your portfolio and I will give you a substantial discount from its true value for an all cash deal.
    Oct 17 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Herbalife Whale Watchers Watching The Wrong Whale? [View article]
    crazylikebudfox - actually the stock only traded down to $8.65 and that occurred on August 28, 2013, the day I wrote this article -

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    If you have traded on your convictions and are short from $26, then you made a good trade and still have a nice profit. You can keep talking trash (like "other pump") but I still have to take you to task for missing the chance to cover in the single digits. Also, if you are still short and not taking this chance to cover at $12.50ish, I am going to have to call you out on that too.
    Oct 17 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Herbalife Whale Watchers Watching The Wrong Whale? [View article]
    crazylikebudfox - Icahn, Soros, Loeb and Chapman...Ackman, Einhorn - which one of those is a publicly traded company? CVSL is a publicly traded company that benefits when more people are made aware of its existence and it benefits tremendously when investors make open market purchases of its shares. CVSL is a company that is rapidly acquiring attractive direct selling businesses using its stock as currency and its ability to do so is enhanced when the price and liquidity of its publicly traded shares improves. I think they are wise to get their story out to as many potential investors as possible.

    My article pointed out what I believe to be a brilliant move by CVSL in taking the quick and easy profit from the Herbalife trade and plowing it into BTH shares where they can make a larger profit and get more positive industry exposure at the same time. I think in due time many others will see the genius in what they did and are doing.

    I believe the speculation in your comments is about on par with your speculation in selling BTH short - ill conceived. Being short BTH with all the things we now know about the BTH situation suggests to me that you should consider dropping the "likebudfox" part of your name and just go with "crazy". Seriously though, I can understand why you might think I was paid by CVSL, but let me be very clear on that - I was not paid or solicited by anyone (except the $ paid by SA) to write this article. I am just calling 'em like I see 'em and I don't think the genius of what they are doing here will be debatable when all is said and done. For now the shorts can claim that CVSL has not made a significant investment in BTH, because their stake remains undisclosed and likely will until they reach the 5% threshold. When they reach that level and file the 13d, it will make it abundantly clear to all that they are following through on what they have previously stated as their intention. I suspect shorts will want to reevaluate their positions when that occurs in light of what "substantial" might mean to John Rochon.
    Oct 16 01:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blyth/CVSL Conference Call Update [View article]
    evo34 - - evo34 is a seeking alpha comment troll. He posts untrue things while hiding behind screen names like evo34. You can click on a user's screen name and see how many "followers" they have to determine if other users see value in their comments or articles. evo34 has not been able to get a follower yet. Here is an idea for you evo34 - you should click to "follow" yourself using one of your other screen names so it would look like someone values your input.

    evo34 posted ""To anyone reading this: check out the author's article history, the timing of the articles and the price action after them. It's a graveyard of illiquid stocks that plunged massively within 6 mos. of his pump pieces."

    These are more of evo34's lies. He posts things like this below each of my articles and in most cases uses faux dates and stock prices to suggest the stocks have fallen since the article was written. Investors choosing to take the time to do a little research should do a chart for the stock indicated, then compare the date of my articles (usually articles published within 24 hours of submission) and see the true performance. Investors who have purchased the stocks I have written about on the day they were recommended have typically had the opportunity to sell at gains of 10 - 300% at some point in the near future, most often within the next few months.
    Oct 13 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Blyth Shares Go Parabolic As Unshorted Float Approaches Zero? [View article]
    For those unaware, evo34 is a seeking alpha comment troll. He posts untrue things while hiding behind screen names like evo34. For those new to SA, you can click on a user's screen name and see how many "followers" they have to determine if other users see value in their comments or articles. evo34 has not been able to get someone to click to follow him yet. Here is an idea for you evo34 - you should click to "follow" yourself using one of your other screen names so it would look like someone values your input.
    Oct 13 11:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
197 Comments
38 Likes