Seeking Alpha

John Gilluly

 
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  • In The Wake Of Iraq, Parsing Putin's Next Move
    Fri, Jun. 27 ERUS, RSX, RSXJ 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The sudden turmoil in Iraq places a strategic premium on the safety and stability of Russian Oil & Gas exports to Europe, South Asia, and the Far East.
    • Russia has much to gain ($) by softening its Ukraine policy and actively promoting peace along its western borders with Europe.
    • Domestic and foreign capital flight from Russia has diminished, but a lack of trust is now prevalent among potential investors and former political allies.
    • Current valuations of the energy-laden Russian Stock Market do not reflect the recent 8% rise in Brent Crude (Spring, 2014).
  • Counting Russian Cards
    Wed, Jun. 4 RSX, RUSL, RSXJ 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The Ukrainian conflict has created a significant, measurable sentiment cost for the Russian stock market.
    • A sociological barometer of sorts is in play with which to view (and trade) the economic impact of the conflict.
    • Peace will prove uber-bullish for Russian equities.
  • Calm Before The Storm
    Thu, May. 29 VXX, UVXY, TVIX 153 Comments

    Summary

    • The VIX Volatility Index is currently at a 7 year low.
    • There have been 10 volatility events (spikes up or down) in the last 18 months; each one presenting a superb opportunity to go long or short the SVXY.
    • The SVXY (Inverse of the near-month futures contracts on the VIX Volatility index) is approaching the extreme upper edge of its trading range.
  • New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power
    Mon, Mar. 24 PLUG 144 Comments

    Summary

    • Schedule 13-D: filed on March 19, 2014 for event of March 8, 2014. Details to follow.
    • On May 16, 2013, Air Liquide (ALIAD) acquired 10,431 shares of the Issuer’s (PLUG) convertible Series C Preferred Stock for $2,595,400.
    • On May 8, 2014, Air Liquide can convert this $2,595,400 investment into 10.97189ML shares of common stock (PLUG) - currently valued at $68,135,436 (March 19, 2014).
    • March 11, 2014: Plug Power reported 106,340,501 shares outstanding. If/when Air Liquide's shares are converted, the total count would likely rise to 117.3ML outstanding shares.
    • Similar dilutions lie ahead because of the warrants included in Plug Power's many equity raises of the last 16 months.
  • Playing PLUG Power
    Sun, Mar. 16 PLUG 152 Comments

    Summary

    • Trading in Plug Power has become synonymous with online gaming. It is not "Investing".
    • How the game of PLUG is played.
    • Conference calls and cheerleader news releases provide infomercials for PLUG.
    • Shareholder dilution and exponential losses keep the game afloat.
  • A Requiem For Plug-Mania
    Thu, Mar. 13 BLDP, FCEL, PLUG 106 Comments

    Summary

    • On Monday, March 10, 2014, PLUG Power's volume/price soared - trading 205 ML shares or 2.5x its float; up 25%.
    • On Tuesday, March 11, 2014, PLUG Power dropped to $6.03; trading almost 3x its float - 243ML shares; down -41%.
    • On Wednesday, March 12, 2014, PLUG Power traded as high as $7.30 (up 22%) on 1.5x its float - 141ML shares.
    • Before its epic fall on March 11th, trading in PLUG had approached outright gambling as investors threw all caution to the wind. Ascent was clearly parabolic.
    • Shares responded violently to analyst's characterization of PLUG as a "casino stock."
  • The Trading Characteristics Of Market Manias
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Mar. 9 BLDP, SLV, WMT 90 Comments

    Summary

    • A simple exposition of manias and what they have in common.
    • Analysis of the Nasdaq, tech, silver, and fuel cell manias.
    • A comment on Plug Power's new Wal-Mart Contract.
    • A true story from the 1998 tech mania.
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Mar. 7 BLDP, SPWR, PLUG 393 Comments

    Summary

    • Comparison of solar stocks from 2006-2013 with the current fuel-cell rally.
    • The pro-rated (overall) cost of a technology is what finally drives its adoption.
    • Why was Plug Power not acquired when its price was compelling?
    • Current peer-reviewed research: "Economic comparison of fuel cell powered forklifts to battery powered forklifts".
    • Discussion of charts & price surges in Plug Power and Ballard Power Systems.
  • Brookfield Looks Ready For Another Leg Higher
    Fri, Feb. 28 DHI, ITB, KBH 4 Comments
  • Homebuilder ETF Surges To New 52-Week High
    Wed, Feb. 26 BRP, DHI, HD 2 Comments
  • Trading The Ranges In M.D.C. Holdings And Tri-Pointe Homes
    Wed, Feb. 19 MDC, TPH 8 Comments
  • New Home Construction Ramping In The Chicago Metro Area - 2014
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Feb. 6 BRP, DHI, HOV 8 Comments
  • Is It Safe To Return To REITs?
    Mon, Feb. 3 AGNC, HTA, IVR 30 Comments
  • Tapering Could Be The Investment Event Of The Year
    Mon, Feb. 3 BRP, DHI, KBH 2 Comments
  • Is A Welcome Surprise Coming For Mortgage Rates?
    Fri, Jan. 31 AGNC, KBH, NLY 2 Comments
  • Homebuilders Continue To Confound The Bears
    Wed, Jan. 29 BRP, DHI, KBH 26 Comments
  • A Picture History Of The Housing Recovery
    Thu, Jan. 23 BRP, DHI, HOV 28 Comments
  • Builders Prepare For A Blowout Spring Selling Season
    Fri, Jan. 17 PHM, TOL, LEN 12 Comments
  • Are Bonds On A Collision Course With Housing, History And The Fed?
    Dec. 2, 2013 IYR, TLT, VNQ 25 Comments
  • Home Builders Immunize 2014-15 Growth Prospects Through Select Metro Markets
    Nov. 17, 2013 BRP, KBH, MDC 3 Comments
  • What A Banana Republic And Monetary Policy Can Teach Us About The Future Of U.S. Housing
    Nov. 11, 2013 IYR, VNQ, TOL 25 Comments
  • Toll Brothers Overpays For Shapell, But Reports Blowout Preliminary Earnings
    Nov. 11, 2013 BRP, KBH, TPH 3 Comments
  • A Simple And Timeless Way To Trade The S&P 500 Successfully
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 8, 2013 DDM, DIA, QLD 149 Comments
  • Brookfield Residential Hits Another Homer - So Why The Q3 Booing?
    Nov. 7, 2013 BAM, BRP 7 Comments
  • Important Lessons For Housing From The Government Crises Of 2011 And 2013
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 6, 2013 BRP, DHI, KBH 16 Comments
  • KB Home And Tri-Pointe: Short-Interest Or Short-Squeeze?
    Sep. 26, 2013 KBH, TPH 5 Comments
  • The Bottom For The Builders May Be In, Part II
    Sep. 11, 2013 BRP, DHI, KBH 24 Comments
  • 4.5% Mortgage Rates For The Remainder Of The Decade?
    Sep. 10, 2013 BRP, DHI, KBH 53 Comments
  • Builders Up, Builders Down - Who's Right?
    Aug. 28, 2013 BRP, KBH, LEN 8 Comments
  • The Bottom For The Builders May Be In
    Aug. 15, 2013 DHI, HOV, KBH 4 Comments
  • When Will The Builders Be A Buy Again?
    Editors' Pick • Jul. 26, 2013 XHB, MTH, TOL 26 Comments
  • Gafisa Revisited And Restructured
       • Jul. 24, 2013 EWZ, GS, PHM 15 Comments