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Is October's Storm Nearly Over?
- The VIX volatility index has risen eight times above 20 in the last 34 months. It is currently at 21.24.
- Past spikes in the VIX above 20 have presented superb entry-points to go long the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF.
- The SVXY (Inverse of the near-month future contracts on the VIX volatility index) has formed a 4-year channel with clearly-demarcated highs and lows, and has now touched its extreme lows.
- Severe selling days are often clustered at the end of a large down move and mark the moment when prices have fallen low enough to attract new buyers.
- To follow this trade in time, see Updates at end of article.
In The Wake Of Iraq, Parsing Putin's Next Move
- The sudden turmoil in Iraq places a strategic premium on the safety and stability of Russian Oil & Gas exports to Europe, South Asia, and the Far East.
- Russia has much to gain ($) by softening its Ukraine policy and actively promoting peace along its western borders with Europe.
- Domestic and foreign capital flight from Russia has diminished, but a lack of trust is now prevalent among potential investors and former political allies.
- Current valuations of the energy-laden Russian Stock Market do not reflect the recent 8% rise in Brent Crude (Spring, 2014).
Counting Russian Cards
- The Ukrainian conflict has created a significant, measurable sentiment cost for the Russian stock market.
- A sociological barometer of sorts is in play with which to view (and trade) the economic impact of the conflict.
- Peace will prove uber-bullish for Russian equities.
Calm Before The Storm
- The VIX Volatility Index is currently at a 7 year low.
- There have been 10 volatility events (spikes up or down) in the last 18 months; each one presenting a superb opportunity to go long or short the SVXY.
- The SVXY (Inverse of the near-month futures contracts on the VIX Volatility index) is approaching the extreme upper edge of its trading range.
New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power
- Schedule 13-D: filed on March 19, 2014 for event of March 8, 2014. Details to follow.
- On May 16, 2013, Air Liquide (ALIAD) acquired 10,431 shares of the Issuer’s (PLUG) convertible Series C Preferred Stock for $2,595,400.
- On May 8, 2014, Air Liquide can convert this $2,595,400 investment into 10.97189ML shares of common stock (PLUG) - currently valued at $68,135,436 (March 19, 2014).
- March 11, 2014: Plug Power reported 106,340,501 shares outstanding. If/when Air Liquide's shares are converted, the total count would likely rise to 117.3ML outstanding shares.
- Similar dilutions lie ahead because of the warrants included in Plug Power's many equity raises of the last 16 months.
Playing PLUG Power
- Trading in Plug Power has become synonymous with online gaming. It is not "Investing".
- How the game of PLUG is played.
- Conference calls and cheerleader news releases provide infomercials for PLUG.
- Shareholder dilution and exponential losses keep the game afloat.
A Requiem For Plug-Mania
- On Monday, March 10, 2014, PLUG Power's volume/price soared - trading 205 ML shares or 2.5x its float; up 25%.
- On Tuesday, March 11, 2014, PLUG Power dropped to $6.03; trading almost 3x its float - 243ML shares; down -41%.
- On Wednesday, March 12, 2014, PLUG Power traded as high as $7.30 (up 22%) on 1.5x its float - 141ML shares.
- Before its epic fall on March 11th, trading in PLUG had approached outright gambling as investors threw all caution to the wind. Ascent was clearly parabolic.
- Shares responded violently to analyst's characterization of PLUG as a "casino stock."
The Trading Characteristics Of Market Manias
- A simple exposition of manias and what they have in common.
- Analysis of the Nasdaq, tech, silver, and fuel cell manias.
- A comment on Plug Power's new Wal-Mart Contract.
- A true story from the 1998 tech mania.
Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania
- Comparison of solar stocks from 2006-2013 with the current fuel-cell rally.
- The pro-rated (overall) cost of a technology is what finally drives its adoption.
- Why was Plug Power not acquired when its price was compelling?
- Current peer-reviewed research: "Economic comparison of fuel cell powered forklifts to battery powered forklifts".
- Discussion of charts & price surges in Plug Power and Ballard Power Systems.
- Brookfield Looks Ready For Another Leg Higher
- Homebuilder ETF Surges To New 52-Week High
- Trading The Ranges In M.D.C. Holdings And Tri-Pointe Homes
- New Home Construction Ramping In The Chicago Metro Area - 2014
- Is It Safe To Return To REITs?
- Tapering Could Be The Investment Event Of The Year
- Is A Welcome Surprise Coming For Mortgage Rates?
- Homebuilders Continue To Confound The Bears
- A Picture History Of The Housing Recovery
- Builders Prepare For A Blowout Spring Selling Season
- Are Bonds On A Collision Course With Housing, History And The Fed?
- Home Builders Immunize 2014-15 Growth Prospects Through Select Metro Markets
- What A Banana Republic And Monetary Policy Can Teach Us About The Future Of U.S. Housing
- Toll Brothers Overpays For Shapell, But Reports Blowout Preliminary Earnings
- A Simple And Timeless Way To Trade The S&P 500 Successfully
- Brookfield Residential Hits Another Homer - So Why The Q3 Booing?
- Important Lessons For Housing From The Government Crises Of 2011 And 2013
- KB Home And Tri-Pointe: Short-Interest Or Short-Squeeze?
- The Bottom For The Builders May Be In, Part II
- 4.5% Mortgage Rates For The Remainder Of The Decade?
- Builders Up, Builders Down - Who's Right?
- The Bottom For The Builders May Be In
- When Will The Builders Be A Buy Again?