Seeking Alpha

John Gilluly

View as an RSS Feed
View John Gilluly's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Down Market Ahead? What Do Leveraged ETFs Tell Us? [View article]
    Peter, I appreciate your simplicity and the timeliness for these articles.

    I went long the TQQQ (3x NDX100) on Monday and doubled the position on Tuesday at the lows (TQQQ was $20 cheaper a share). I assumed it will follow URTY's pattern. The charts look similar. I am looking for another pullback of URTY into the upper $70s for a second shot.

    Also, about 6 weeks ago you did a risk-reward on LBJ when it was in the $14-$16 range. The risk assigned by MMs at that price at that time was near zero on your scatter chart. Today it is at $22.

    The thing that I like most about your analysis is your stress on the importance of time: that it increases your risk the longer you dally with it; it is not the investor's friend in the way that the buy and hold investor assumes.

    If I am to assess correctly (my guesstimate) what you are presenting: it's that there is a TIME to do things when the risk/reward is in your favor, with a menu (range) that accompanies that risk/reward at that time. When it's there, it's there. When it's gone; it's gone.
    Apr 18 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beazer Home's Debt Deal Reflects Deteriorating Homebuilder Fundamentals [View article]
    Dave, I have thought about this a lot over the last 3 months, and the things you've written about the housing market are either somewhat - or entirely - true, depending on the time frame. For example, the last 3 months have been a very good time to be bearish on home-builders.

    But at the end of the day, bearish investors will have one outlook and bullish investors will do the opposite. For example, you have been shorting KBH; I am buying again in the mid $16s.

    Beazer was on its deathbed just two years ago (along with Hovnanian - HOV) and I am surprised it survived, given how much of the company's future profits they gave away to their angel investors. But BZH's ability to borrow insecured money ($325 ML) at 5.75% when their profit margins are above 16% is free money for them, to develop new communities. And if they use the dough to pay down high-interest debt (9%+), even better for their ratios.

    Your article sounds a little like, "If I was running the company. I would do this." But the company sees the same circumstances you see - differently. They are profitably selling houses into solid demand, and they like the easy money and the easy terms for borrowing.
    Apr 11 02:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power [View article]
    You are not missing a thing. Read my articles on PLUG. Common sense is an excellent place to begin. If what they have/had is so valuable, WHY didn't anyone who is anyone buy them for 15 cents when they could? BECAUSE IT DOESN'T ADD UP.
    Mar 26 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power [View article]
    But that was yesterday, yes, and today was the day when he publicly admitted he had mislead the market by implying that there was material invest-able information where there was none.
    Mar 26 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power [View article]
    I am glad to hear you were happier yesterday. I definitely was not (which might make you happy). But now today, I am very very happy, which makes me think you are not very happy, yes? So you see....you have your days and we have ours...nothing personal. It's not about PLUG. It's about those who Play Plug.

    Which leads me to my next item: the CEO has forced me write another article, this time about the history of his deceptive ways. Today's debacle was nothing new for him - just one more pump and dump fueled by one day's misleading comments and the next day's mea culpa. 260 ML shares later and almost a billion in Lo$$es shared by shorts and longs, it's been one of the biggest whipsaws anyone could ever experience. That's CEO Mash's pixie dust for you.
    Mar 26 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power [View article]
    Purple K -
    The thing is, it's fascinating, this mania, it truly is. For example, a few guys with some great forethought bought into PLUG at 15 cents after it had fallen almost 90%. (If you look at FLUX, you can see the same kind of thing happening there). So it flies upward in 6 consecutive parabolas to one of the greatest stock stories of all time. EVERY dip bought for 7 months. Not an unhappy "investor" as far as the eye can see! Plug-o-mania!

    Then Andrew Left and I write a couple of articles at the peak of the mania, because the trading has become just surreal, like the Nasdaq in March, 2000. People are literally THROWING money at Plug. It is almost messianic, people's reverence for this money-machine, printing-press. Just buy and you're golden.

    Left's article pops the bubble. I have to say this - it popped just like the Nasdaq popped - in a single moment that Tuesday morning, exactly 14 years from the previous time PLug popped, on March 10th, in 2000. And now, just like the trip up, every rally is being sold into, a shorter's dream come true.

    My interest in Plug is how a mania is disseminated, and I came to realize that all the strong feelings expressed here have nothing to do with PLUG, really, but they are like a Rorshach ink blot of each person's personal greed. Playing Plug has become a casino game; and the stock name is immaterial to what's actually happening in the casino. It's a game of wits.

    I would be very surprised if Plug Power did not sink back down to pennies again. Remember that analogy of the investor who bought a 1,000 shares of Plug at the IPO, was once worth $150,000 and today is worth $569? Amazing. I hope that doesn't happen to any of the early birds here.
    Mar 25 02:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power [View article]
    Catsrevenge - "Methinks thou doth protest too much" (see: http://bit.ly/17KyiJz)

    And for a daytrader? I don't understand that at all. Too much huff and puff. Why you would have such strong feelings about something like a stock? Or me, a writer about stocks? Let the market cast the vote for you. You do agree it is important to be on the right side of a trade, yes, much more important than being "dead right"?

    A last point. Plug Power is not only extremely popular with investors. It's popular with Short-sellers also, who are lining up with a begging bowl for their "me-too" opportunity to Play Plug.

    Longs came for the first shift and left with outrageous profits... Shorts with significant profits (for good reason) have now come for round 2... Playing Plug part 2 - but it's an equal opportunity experience. So half the float hopes it will go to the moon, and the other half hopes it goes to (well, you know, the other place).

    By my pencil, almost 60ML shares are now short (0.6 BL if you don't count the reverse-split). Yet you would discriminate; not let the second half contestants their chance at Playing Plug? Doesn't make sense when you see the reality on the ground and the float changing hands umpteen times a week.
    Mar 25 01:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power [View article]
    Catsrevenge

    And isn't your "whole agenda" (to repeat the phrase) ultimately to see a stock "go up" so you might profit from it too, while enhancing its share value for other people?

    Data is neutral. Buyers and sellers have belief systems that inform their choices. You are long. I am short. It's what makes the world (and especially the stock market) go round - this difference in viewpoint.

    And by my pencil, PLUG investors have had an exceedingly beneficent turn of the wheel. Don't you want to share some of that? Only you can be profitable? Shorts are not allowed to be?

    At least not with your "pet stock", yes? And that's the problem, and why you should probably not be invested in this mania-driven story stock.
    Mar 24 06:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power [View article]
    Catsrevenge - if you and I watch a bright meteor (a shooting star) steak across the sky and I say, "Look! that one's surely gonna fall"

    Who made it fall - me, or the meteor's own weight?

    And if I hadn't been there, and hadn't carefully observed its path (the path of meteors like it before), would it then not have fallen? Would it have kept streaking brighter onward without me?

    The inner movements of things - especially when they trade tens of millions of shares - follow the lines of least resistance - the direction where their energies can flow the easiest.

    There are two sides to a trade - buyers and sellers.

    You are a buyer. I am a seller.

    That is not evil. That is the way it is.
    Mar 24 02:20 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New 13D Filing Reveals More Dilution Ahead For Plug Power [View article]
    My "balanced" view is that Plug Power (PLUG) will likely hit $4.00 (-35% from today's open) before this downturn is done; and if it doesn't hold $4.00, then a meandering range between $2.50 to $4.00 maybe the norm for the remainder of the year.

    If there is a large scale sell-off on the Nasdaq, then there is no telling how low it will go. Manias in alternative energy stocks have preceded previous tops in the NASDAQ in both 2000 and 2007. The fuel stocks of 2014 will likely be no exception to this tradition.

    PLUG power is probably the easiest short to come along in many a moon.

    As large investors exercise the warrants that cost them pennies and immediately sell - and as Air Liquide waits with baited breath for its May 8 release date to cash in on their spectacular investment and sell some of that too - there will be continuous and inexorable downward pressure on the shares to sell. Everyone who got in at 50 cents, at a dollar, at $1.50, at $2.00, at $2.50 will see their profits evaporate and will SELL.

    I have seen this before. Too many people on the dance floor dancing to the same music, but the exits are small, exceedingly small, and as the dancers wish to leave - they will crowd the exits on their way out - even as the music is playing. There have already been two mini-stampedes out of the stock in the last two weeks where the circuit-breakers hit. Today may be another.

    Instead of throwing stones at me for forewarning of PLug's likely fate (for the previous three weeks), investors would be advised to GET OUT, and protect your profits, not your pride. You have already had chances to sell at $11, $10, $9, $8, $7, $6.

    How low does it need to go before you ring your bell?
    Mar 24 01:31 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies: The Latest Bubble Stock? [View article]
    To the contrary, thank you Chris for alerting me to this most excellent short-selling opportunity yesterday through your article. An extremely-overextended stock with a product that is likely re-producible by a major car maker, or supplier, to China.

    Who knows what its' worth (?) in the long run, but not worth 25% more in a single day. That was the whole point. Plus the volume and the true-believer quality of your detractors.

    As we can see from today's price, the market has spoken. KNDI has even broken the -10% circuit breaker. The sharks are beginning to circle the frothy and ecstatic - wherever they present themselves in the market. Alternative energy manias have preceded every top in the Nasdaq for the last 2 decades.

    BTW...I counted up your comments yesterday for this article. There were 69 at the time. 67 vehemently disagreed with your exposition, one was neutral, and one was mildly positive.

    One could hardly ask for more from the mania-meter to determine a short-selling probability. Your commentators should be thanked for their input.
    Mar 19 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing PLUG Power [View article]
    Cactus jack 65

    The reason that authors do not respond more is because we are encouraged by the editors to put a great amount of thought into our writing - and our comments - so our work will not be diminished by some off-the-cuff reply in the comments section (which is NOT edited by S/A).

    I am new to PLUG (only 10 days, actually) and decided to write about the company because its movement was so different from the sleepy realm of real estate I am accustomed to analyzing. Real estate going up 25% in a single year is the biggest of big deals - "Bubble talk invades the nation".

    But PLUG power rising 25% in a day? No big deal. Investors say the run is just getting started and everyone wants in. I have heard this story before. A forklift company with scant IP (Intellectual Property) leading the leagues (to pan a baseball comparison) in batting average, home-runs, triples, doubles, STEALS, every imaginable metric in stock trading - and this is just the beginning?

    Nope. It 's not going to pan out.

    Rather, "Playing PLUG" has become the online "casino game of the month" - the minnow that swallowed the whale of Wall Street.
    Mar 16 05:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Requiem For Plug-Mania [View article]
    I think anyone who reads my closing sentiments here - buried under a hundred comments - would be well-served to take their profits in PLUG and GET OUT. PLUG has a book value of 2 CENTS, a price to sales ratio of 33.5, and an Olympic-sized track record of losses. The same thing the company says about future orders and future profits I heard said about eyeball clicks in the dotcom days.

    Besides, hasn't the market spoken this week? Hundreds of millions of shares traded over a tiny fabricating company in upstate rural NY, and shorts finally come out of the week smiling like bunnies in a carrot patch. And the bulls - they had chances to smile too - all last week, this Monday and then Wednesday, Thursday too. What's not to like about that? Everyone had their chance to make some profits.
    Mar 14 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Irrational Exuberance To End In Ruin [View article]
    Just a remarkable exegesis - you are to be commended.

    In my articles on this huckstered pump of a stock, I concentrated on the trading characteristics of the mania, but not on the casual dishonesty posed in its accounting which you have unearthed

    By my pencil I counted almost 140 ML shares outstanding, BEFORE the recent secondary that ALSO had warrants attached to it.

    So what do we have here since 2010: a rising share count [13.1M in 2010, to 18.8M in 2011, to 34.4M in 2012, to 106.2M in 2013] on MULTIPLYING LOSSES.

    Is it any wonder their CFO left them?

    Add up the losses with the increasing share count, and PLUG is an exponential fire($) eater: 34.4M shares in 2012 (losing -0.93/share), up to 106.2M shares in 2013 (losing -0.83/share).

    The thing that gets me is nobody cares about the valuation - Nothing seems to matter but up up up up. PLUG power - based in its backwoods 5,000 square foot facility in rural upstate NY - is trading more shares today than 99.5% of the SPX 500, more than all the international banks, more than all the car companies and industrial leaders.

    And what is their claim to fame: FORKLIFTS (!)
    Mar 13 07:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Requiem For Plug-Mania [View article]
    Discovered another tidbit on PLUG today. This tiny 5,000 sq. ft facility in rural NY is trading more shares a day than 497 stocks in the SPX 500, the largest index in America. Only Bank of America, Facebook, and Verizon trade more.

    The trading in PLUG has nothing to do with the company, and everything to do with a daytrader gladiator contest. This is a mania. Period. And I might add, a global war of trading-chicken (as in seeing who can drive on the wrong side of the road the longest til they have a head-on crash.)
    Mar 13 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
331 Comments
412 Likes