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John Gilluly

 
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  • January Jobs Report Positives: Residential Construction Momentum And The Participation Rate [View article]
    The nominal number of new construction-related jobs in January, 2014 was almost double that of January, 2013 - in what was one of the coldest Januaries on record. There was also a pick-up in manufacturing jobs.
    Feb 11 02:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Go The Tailwinds [View article]
    In the latest BLS construction employment figures for January, 2014, hiring in that sector increased 100% over 2013: to 48K from 24k (approximately).

    For 2/3 of the United States that increase was for what's considered an "outside job" in one of the coldest Januaries on record.

    Manufacturing payroll employment also improved over January, 2013
    Feb 10 02:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe To Return To REITs? [View article]
    Galicianova - that REM looks great. Hasn't cut or reduced its 15% dividend during the recent 2013 downturn; is diversified, and is composed of some great companies.
    Feb 10 02:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Estate Slide - It's Just The Weather [View article]
    That's because there's no supply. Do a For Sale check on Zillow.
    Feb 9 11:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe To Return To REITs? [View article]
    Galicianova - NLY, WMC, HTA, AGNC. Maybe other posters could list more names.
    Feb 9 03:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe To Return To REITs? [View article]
    Just saw this piece on S/A "American Capital Agency: Conference Call Turned Circus Act" (http://bit.ly/1jlEvoT?). In January, 2014, it's been cheaper for AGNC to buy other MREITS at a 20% discount than to buy the underlying MBS assets for their own portfolio.

    This means the 2013 market sell-off in the names is offering investors the same trade-off. If that 20% gap is closed and NLY trades up to its book value of $12.83, leveraged investors from early January will make 60% on the stock and another 25% on the dividends. That is good. Real good. This only reinforces my thesis that this is a once-in-a-blue-moon opportunity for savers and retirees to do something good for themselves, and why there has been such concentrated insider buying in the names.
    Feb 8 02:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Construction Ramping In The Chicago Metro Area - 2014 [View article]
    Investors may not sell them. Maybe they will rent them. In a growing population, you have to live somewhere. Where I live, I could rent my home (through a property management company), and net a $1,000/mo above all costs. A friend of mine who bought homes in the Sacramento area in 2011-12, makes 20% annually from those leases. The demand for housing where we live (SF Bay Area) remains constant - whether it be purchase or rent - because of the land constraint and housing permits per employment..
    Feb 8 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Home Construction Ramping In The Chicago Metro Area - 2014 [View article]
    "By the time it looks good, you're too late." Helen Meisler, technical analyst, TheStreet.com
    Feb 6 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe To Return To REITs? [View article]
    Rose, for many of us, a bad experience was the beginning we needed to manage our own affairs. What often passes for financial advice from these "advisers" is just salesmanship with a small cut off every mutual fund deposit or IRA deposit from you - for them - forever. Doesn't even matter if the fund makes money (for you). It's the original and recurring sales fees and commissions that matter to them. Google - "The Retirement Gamble" from FRONTLINE and PBS.
    Feb 5 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe To Return To REITs? [View article]
    I suppose buying the banks the first week of March in 2009 was a success. But I was unprepared for the financial crisis before it happened, and didn't see it coming. I was nauseated all that summer (2008). That should have told me something.

    My success was buying some amazing stocks in March of 2009, and my failure was in not sticking with them. Ford for a buck, BAC for $2-$5, GE at $7, KLIC for a $1. I was so scared of losing my winnings at the end of that year that I bought a house with the money.

    The home builders gave me a second chance in 2012, and I guess that is where I found a niche market that I could understand; one that involved real things bought by real people (very different from tech with its allure, vaporware, and software dreams) , which led me to studying interest rates in the summer of 2013 (I had to know why I was getting clobbered).

    Safe to say, an understanding of interest rates is the biggest of big deals. The global financial universe seems to hang on the TNX. I never knew that before, I know that now. The cost of credit is what makes capitalism go. To my mind, the study of U.S. interest rates is both an aesthetic thing and a technical thing. Historical periods of high interest rates have a particular sociological character, as do low-interest rate environments.

    I think the Great Recession could end up being the dominant financial memory for the next two decades. People can't "get over it" because it affected them so deeply. Even after one of the greatest bull markets in memory (2009-13), the public is still very under-invested because of the persistence of this memory.

    In my articles on the housing sector, 75% of the comments could be characterized as negative, some even cynically dismissive. Meanwhile, I had a 600% return on the home builders in 2012-13. There was one real estate agent from Phoenix back then who wrote positive comments. He had bought a bunch of houses in 2011 and Pulte stock, and he sold houses in Phoenix too. He kept trying to tell people how good the Phoenix market was. They wouldn't believe him.

    Now I am into the REITS. The insider buying in the REITS is indisuputable. Union Trade Assoc's comment below about HTA is accurate. Those guys were buying their own stock throughout 2013. They must feel good about something there, yes?

    Another long term play I would look at is NSM - Nationstar Mortgage. They service loans. Yes, the re-fi market has dried up. But what about the purchase market? There has been a large increase in housing starts slated for 2014. If rates stay low and new home sales pick up, NSM should start showing a profit (again). It's down 50% in the last 90 days, and they are the best of the best at what they do. BAC sold them their portfolio of servicing rights last year on billions in mortgages.
    Feb 4 02:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe To Return To REITs? [View article]
    Charlie, Good Point. That would have been a better title. But from the charts I'm looking at, seems like the market lumped all the dog REITS and crow REITS into one house of pain and treated them the same. HTA followed the same fate as NLY.
    Feb 3 09:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Safe To Return To REITs? [View article]
    Bruce,
    That's true, but I was looking at the relative probability, the way in which the proposition is "leaning". My NLY entry point is before the ex-dividend date (at $9.89), so I have some cushion currently ($1.13/9.89). A complete round-trip down to $8 would take NLY all the way back to 1997. I'm prepared to add if it does that.

    ..."By the time it looks good, you're too late". (Helene Meisler, technical analyst, The Street.com)
    Feb 3 05:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Saga Will Continue, But Annaly Capital Could See An 18% Increase [View article]
    Regarded, take a look at Scott Grannis's November article: "Quantitative Easing Myths" (http://bit.ly/1i8ddlh). You might like it.

    Also, the home-builders are planning on a 25% increase in new single family housing this year. Should be good for private MBS purveyors and originators, and those who invest in them - like Analy - especially if the Federal Reserve is easing off on their purchases. Tapering will open up the market for others to get involved.

    I'm hoping that Analy will return to its customary $12-14 range by the end of 2014. It is still trading at a discount to its $12 book value.

    $2/share in price appreciation and $1.20/share in dividends in 2014 would make for a nice 32% return off a sub-$10 investment in Analy. With modest leverage, it could be even more. 2013 was one of those once-in-a-blue moon opportunities to start a long-term savings and re-investment plan in MREITS.

    Since my first purchase in December, 2013, I have increased my share count by 12%.
    Jan 31 03:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Continue To Confound The Bears [View article]
    My slant to the housing market remains bullish.
    Jan 30 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Homebuilders Continue To Confound The Bears [View article]
    Interest rates fell another 7 basis points today, almost 40 basis points since January 8th. This Fed-tapering could get interesting if it actually "cools" off the economy little pieces at a time, thus giving investors and home-buyers another shot at the builder stocks and the housing market this Spring, with the added effect of preserving the dividends of the mortgage REITS.
    Jan 29 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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