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John Gilluly

 
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  • Kandi Technologies: The Latest Bubble Stock? [View article]
    To the contrary, thank you Chris for alerting me to this most excellent short-selling opportunity yesterday through your article. An extremely-overextended stock with a product that is likely re-producible by a major car maker, or supplier, to China.

    Who knows what its' worth (?) in the long run, but not worth 25% more in a single day. That was the whole point. Plus the volume and the true-believer quality of your detractors.

    As we can see from today's price, the market has spoken. KNDI has even broken the -10% circuit breaker. The sharks are beginning to circle the frothy and ecstatic - wherever they present themselves in the market. Alternative energy manias have preceded every top in the Nasdaq for the last 2 decades.

    BTW...I counted up your comments yesterday for this article. There were 69 at the time. 67 vehemently disagreed with your exposition, one was neutral, and one was mildly positive.

    One could hardly ask for more from the mania-meter to determine a short-selling probability. Your commentators should be thanked for their input.
    Mar 19, 2014. 01:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Playing PLUG Power [View article]
    Cactus jack 65

    The reason that authors do not respond more is because we are encouraged by the editors to put a great amount of thought into our writing - and our comments - so our work will not be diminished by some off-the-cuff reply in the comments section (which is NOT edited by S/A).

    I am new to PLUG (only 10 days, actually) and decided to write about the company because its movement was so different from the sleepy realm of real estate I am accustomed to analyzing. Real estate going up 25% in a single year is the biggest of big deals - "Bubble talk invades the nation".

    But PLUG power rising 25% in a day? No big deal. Investors say the run is just getting started and everyone wants in. I have heard this story before. A forklift company with scant IP (Intellectual Property) leading the leagues (to pan a baseball comparison) in batting average, home-runs, triples, doubles, STEALS, every imaginable metric in stock trading - and this is just the beginning?

    Nope. It 's not going to pan out.

    Rather, "Playing PLUG" has become the online "casino game of the month" - the minnow that swallowed the whale of Wall Street.
    Mar 16, 2014. 05:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Requiem For Plug-Mania [View article]
    I think anyone who reads my closing sentiments here - buried under a hundred comments - would be well-served to take their profits in PLUG and GET OUT. PLUG has a book value of 2 CENTS, a price to sales ratio of 33.5, and an Olympic-sized track record of losses. The same thing the company says about future orders and future profits I heard said about eyeball clicks in the dotcom days.

    Besides, hasn't the market spoken this week? Hundreds of millions of shares traded over a tiny fabricating company in upstate rural NY, and shorts finally come out of the week smiling like bunnies in a carrot patch. And the bulls - they had chances to smile too - all last week, this Monday and then Wednesday, Thursday too. What's not to like about that? Everyone had their chance to make some profits.
    Mar 14, 2014. 08:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug Power: Irrational Exuberance To End In Ruin [View article]
    Just a remarkable exegesis - you are to be commended.

    In my articles on this huckstered pump of a stock, I concentrated on the trading characteristics of the mania, but not on the casual dishonesty posed in its accounting which you have unearthed

    By my pencil I counted almost 140 ML shares outstanding, BEFORE the recent secondary that ALSO had warrants attached to it.

    So what do we have here since 2010: a rising share count [13.1M in 2010, to 18.8M in 2011, to 34.4M in 2012, to 106.2M in 2013] on MULTIPLYING LOSSES.

    Is it any wonder their CFO left them?

    Add up the losses with the increasing share count, and PLUG is an exponential fire($) eater: 34.4M shares in 2012 (losing -0.93/share), up to 106.2M shares in 2013 (losing -0.83/share).

    The thing that gets me is nobody cares about the valuation - Nothing seems to matter but up up up up. PLUG power - based in its backwoods 5,000 square foot facility in rural upstate NY - is trading more shares today than 99.5% of the SPX 500, more than all the international banks, more than all the car companies and industrial leaders.

    And what is their claim to fame: FORKLIFTS (!)
    Mar 13, 2014. 07:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Requiem For Plug-Mania [View article]
    Discovered another tidbit on PLUG today. This tiny 5,000 sq. ft facility in rural NY is trading more shares a day than 497 stocks in the SPX 500, the largest index in America. Only Bank of America, Facebook, and Verizon trade more.

    The trading in PLUG has nothing to do with the company, and everything to do with a daytrader gladiator contest. This is a mania. Period. And I might add, a global war of trading-chicken (as in seeing who can drive on the wrong side of the road the longest til they have a head-on crash.)
    Mar 13, 2014. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Requiem For Plug-Mania [View article]
    Plug's annual earnings (reported this morning)

    2012 PLUG lost $0.93/share
    2013 PLUG lost $0.83/share.

    They had a 103ML shares outstanding on 1/1/2014. With the two new secondaries that they completed in Q1 - with MORE warrants - the share count will be about 110 ML.

    Warrants are an option to buy stock at a certain price by a certain date. They are dilutive. $0.49 of the 2013 loss was related to the stock warrants they issued in 2013 that diluted the stock value.

    If those warrants were priced for today's annual report at $1.55 (PLUG's close on December 31, 2013), then the new secondary offerings - with warrants - would pose a massive dilution of shareholder value for the March 2014 quarter, and create another significant loss for the company.

    The money PLUG has had to give to individual investors to entice them to participate in their secondary offerings will directly affect its earnings going forward. They may NEVER make money.
    Mar 13, 2014. 09:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trading Characteristics Of Market Manias [View article]
    A quick sampling of PLUG message board wisdom. 10 minute cut and paste. The sentiments expressed are authentic. (From: http://yhoo.it/M6UZT1)

    * " PLUG is Like Knowing the Winning #'s Before the Lottery Draw Takes Place

    * BE READY FOR 25% GAIN IN PRE-MARKET FOLLOWED BY CLOSE ABOVE $11 MONDAY

    * I am sure it will (be) beyond 50 in very short time

    * My friend is a hedge fund manager he sees Plug going to 20 no problem

    * My target price 4 digits $1000

    * I'm happy with 3 digits $999 !

    * 10 bagger time BLDP and PLUG The Department Of Defense Goes Green

    * I expect to close above 10 by Tuesday for sure and close to if not above $13 on Friday. A whole new definition for March madness."
    Mar 9, 2014. 06:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    Thank you. That was the purpose in writing it. PLUG and Ballard have become retail-investor-get-rich quick manias. My broker told me Friday afternoon that its cut the margin requirement on PLUG to 100% in order to make it a non-marginable stock; and will make no shares available for shorting.

    This is what killed the Silver rally a couple of years ago. Silver had become a mania. It was so much cheaper than gold to own; and it was going up in leaps and bounds daily and in after-hours worldwide.

    International Brokerages raised the margin requirements in sync - to hold what you had and to buy more. Investors worldwide had to sell, which allowed the shorts to cover. It had become the mother of all short-squeezes. SLV rallied the following morning for about 15 minutes, as if to defy the new margin rule, but then began to tank.

    It's tanked ever since. Someone will pull the plug on PLUG soon, and thus the purpose of my article - as both a warning and a lesson to be learned about manias. They are not good for anyone except for the first-movers who get in on the dance floor, just as the music begins.
    Mar 8, 2014. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    "Methinks thous doth protest too much."
    http://bit.ly/17KyiJz

    Hmmm. And "who" was the investor; and "who" did the investor sell his shares too - the retail public? And when the stock was trading at $3/share "a few weeks before" was that when the "investor" thought that paying $5.74 a share was just fine with "him"?

    A shameless brokerage firm cashed in on a mania, and one of their analysts helped them pitch the secondary shares for the company. Whether it was overt or covert - the result was the same.

    One of the big discussions after the financial crisis - and after the dotcom bust too - was the degree to which analysts became cheerleaders for the firms their company was doing business with. It's clearly unethical.

    You better hope this stock stays above $5.74; or Henry Blodget could be highlighting Cowen & Co's plug for PLUG on the Business Insider.
    Mar 8, 2014. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    I priced them out and realized it would be cheaper - when all was said and done- to pay the extra $50/month on gas and just get a regular car. The Chevy Volt is the closest I have read about to what I would like to buy (someday).

    It might be simplistic of me, but I think this is what the heavy equipment manufacturers reasoned with PLUG. It just didn't pencil out for them. They figured the expense wouldn't pencil out for their customers, either.

    It wasn't "there" yet. And if it was, they would have bought it, maybe for 5 cents on the dollar. I know that if someone offered me a compelling automobile alternative, I would take them up on it.

    Why would it be any different for a forklift company with an expensive power supply? The OEM's passed on it.
    Mar 7, 2014. 06:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    Yes, all true. And so is this: "A forklift is a forklift is a forklift", even if you sprinkle pixie-dust on it.
    Mar 7, 2014. 05:29 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    It caught my eye and reminded me of the old days. As far as PLUG's high tech future, I will quote Shakespeare, "The fault is not in our stars, but in ourselves, that we are underlings." Yogi Berra would put it like this: "A forklift is a forklift is a forklift."

    But if - at the end of the day - it is NOT a forklift, let me know. Last I looked, they sure looked like everyday forklifts to me (but shhh...don't let that big secret out!). And for those who continue to believe in the "secret sauce" behind this everyday journeyman forklift, what words could dissuade them otherwise? Maybe the leprechaun I have tucked in my vest pocket could convince them.
    Mar 7, 2014. 05:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pulling The PLUG On The Fuel-Cell Mania [View article]
    A lot of comments on the article, and about 9,000 hits (and counting) thus far on SeekingAlpha by 3:30 PM EST, so definitely it's been food for thought for investors PLUGging along.

    For the longs, congratulations. Santa has never had it as good as you have it now, so relish this once-in-a-lifetime fish story that "didn't get away" from you. PLUG must seem like the "Best Ponzi scheme ever". Whoever was on the dance floor first remains the happiest.

    But remember: parabolas have 2 directions - Up and then down. And pigs have only one direction in life: the slaughter-house.

    Earnings next week? In the dotcom days what would always kill a stock was its first earnings announcement after a big run, because what was "under the hood" could then be quantified. A little bit of reality is all it took. Even dotcoms printing a profit were slammed.

    I missed a couple of things in the article - for example - how Walmart mercilessly squeezes its suppliers. I bet that PLUG's profit on those forklifts will be just a little above their cost to sell them. Maybe the CEO offered Walmart the deal of a lifetime to save his company from being delisted? I know I would have if I was him. And Walmart surely wouldn't have minded obliging him, either. "Business as usual", they'd say.

    And since Walmart got such a good deal from PLUG, all the other Big Warehouse Tunas are going to want the same PLUG for themselves too - cheap forklifts.

    Anyway, for those of you who are riding this moonshot higher and believe you've just hit the Klondike while trading in your pajamas, check your oxygen level and keep a steady hand on your stake. There's claim jumpers licking their chops every buck this thing goes higher; and shorts lining up at the door with a begging bowl for more. The short interest in PLUG will probably be over 50% the next time Nasdaq tabulates it.
    Mar 7, 2014. 03:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In This Year Of The Horse, Ride The Best In Our Stable: UDOW [View article]
    Peter,

    I can't thank you enough for this article, and it's clear as bell to me what you are saying. A remarkable way to look at how human nature both calculates and trades risk.

    Do standard deviations have a place in your calculations? Because it is my experience that one could buy a negative (-2) STD (standard deviation) print when the number of stocks "above their 10 day moving average" in that index reaches a -2 STD.

    For some reason, 10 days straight of losses forces many investors to bail because they cannot withstand the psychological pressure; creating a nice buying opportunity. I cross-calculated the SPXL, SVXY, UDOW, and TNA to these -2 STD moments (end of day data) for the indices and the returns were all positive within 2 weeks.

    Of course, this probably would not work in a bear market, but we are obviously not in one of those now. Keep writing. Great stuff.
    Mar 5, 2014. 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market May Be Starting To Crash [View article]
    More thoughts on this matter were expressed 3 months ago in an article, "Home Builders Immunize Growth Prospect through Select Metro Markets" (http://bit.ly/1eonw2f)
    Feb 27, 2014. 04:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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