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John Ginn

 
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  • 3 Fundamental Negatives Investors Can't Ignore [View article]
    Yes they could do it until 2020 but the point is we already have extraordinarily low interest rates so (as we are seeing now) QE would no longer be effective.

    I agree on the point on longterm bonds. I wrote about that on my blog back on 1/22 in the article titled "The trade of the decade." http://on.fb.me/YcjBs2
    Feb 15 03:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Fundamental Negatives Investors Can't Ignore [View article]
    Thank you for the encouragement. And yes as soon as I started posting financial related articles I learned pretty quick that you must have thick skin in this game.
    Feb 15 02:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Fundamental Negatives Investors Can't Ignore [View article]
    JS,

    I agree with all of your points. Unemployment is especially interesting considering the labor force participation rate has also been steadily declining, and when people quit looking for work they aren't count as unemployed.

    The fundamentals always prevail, it's just a matter of how long it takes.
    Feb 15 02:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Fundamental Negatives Investors Can't Ignore [View article]
    The total cuts come out to $1.2T, $85B is just what is to take place in March.

    And I agree less debt will be good for the economy in the long run. However, keeping an eye on the underlying fundamentals and selling when negative fundamentals occur at the same time as record high stock prices is much more attractive to me - this chart does a pretty good job of explaining the point on its own: (http://scharts.co/YiO5dM)

    For example, an investor who chose to ignore the unsustainable P/E ratios of tech stocks throughout the late 90's into 2000 would eventually make their money back, but not until a decade later in 2007. The same is true for the housing bubble which formed in '06 and '07.

    The counter argument to that is those that bought the market dips or bought in the early '90's are up huge. My reply to that is that if we were at those levels now (or even under say 1350) I would add stock exposure. But we're not. We're back at all-time high stock prices.
    Feb 15 02:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Fundamental Negatives Investors Can't Ignore [View article]
    Muolo,

    I do not think "low taxes" contribute significantly to corporate earnings.
    I study corporate and international tax law, and the effective average tax rate on US corporations is much higher than many think - see the chart of government tax receipts here (http://bit.ly/12FYJg0)

    Plus, although foreign earnings are not taxed in some jurisdictions, corporations cannot bring those earnings back to the U.S. without paying a 30% withholding tax.
    Feb 14 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Fundamental Negatives Investors Can't Ignore [View article]
    I'm ok with being a little too early if that means a few weeks or a month early. Longer than a month and it would not be enjoyable to still be short.
    Feb 14 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Fundamental Negatives Investors Can't Ignore [View article]
    Cranky,

    That approach was much more attractive pre 2008.
    Feb 14 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Fundamental Negatives Investors Can't Ignore [View article]
    In my opinion the answer to how long QE will last depends on how much weight you give to the Fed's statements and actions.

    Up until earlier this year they pegged the fed funds rate at 0-.25% until 2015 - but last November they changed that policy to the current policy of employment below 6.5% or inflation above 2.5%.

    That tells me that the Fed is anticipating having to raise rates earlier than expected, and from their previous statements and actions QE would end well before a rate hike.

    Accordingly, I'm estimating the Fed will end QE around late '13 to early '14 and then raise rates as early as mid-late 2014
    Feb 14 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RPC Surges On Earnings But Necessitates A Deeper Look Into Natural Gas [View article]
    Well before deciding keep in mind that the article is meant to be an analysis of intermediate term direction over the next 6 months to 1yr. As the last paragraph points out, RES has great long term potential (I'm looking out 2-5yrs). Good luck!
    Jan 29 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RPC Surges On Earnings But Necessitates A Deeper Look Into Natural Gas [View article]
    j,rogers - Thank you for your comment. The company being sold in the near future would definitely be a catalyst for the stock, but I prefer to invest based mainly on the current earnings outlook.

    I would only hold a position in expectation of a buyout if the company was known to be in negotiations and the stock price had yet to reflect what I perceived as a likely sale.
    Jan 28 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RPC Surges On Earnings But Necessitates A Deeper Look Into Natural Gas [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. I believe that RES will benefit from a rise in natural gas prices and thus a rise in rig counts, which will occur when natural gas prices near $4.50/btu.

    However, I am selling now because I expect RES's stock price to decline for the intermediate term - the catalyst being that rig count has now declined to a level where RPC is seeing a slowing of demand for their services - and current natural gas prices are not high enough to reverse the ongoing trend of declining rig count and drilling.
    Jan 28 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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28 Comments
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