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John Gordon

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  • Fast Casual Restaurants Continue To Gobble Up Casual Dining And Fast Food Customers [View article]
    Interesting article. Not sure that Qdoba is the best example, as its viability must be reconciled with its recently announced brand review and store closings. I wonder if fast casual success is more about individual brands (CMG, PNRA) versus a building/average check and service system type.
    Aug 12 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Real Estate Model Realities [View article]
    153972: good questions. The data above is based on worldwide reported values. The MCD bias is to own propery where ever possible. China would require a special study.
    Aug 8 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Noodles The New Chipotle? [View article]
    Packer: Too soon for shorts. Just my opinion, but since they have just IPO'd and there are no covering analysts or guidance yet, they will be in a bubble for a year or so. Once NDLS gives annual guidance and if they miss or the growth story erodes, then that is the time for the shorts.
    Jul 4 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Noodles The New Chipotle? [View article]
    Jargon: the table in the article uses parameters from each companies one full year prior to IPO, from their respective S-1s. It is true NDLS has far fewer units than CMG currently, but thats not the point. The point is to compare NDLS prior to its IPO and then CMG prior to its IPO.
    Jul 4 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Noodles The New Chipotle? [View article]
    Jay, look for the first analyst coverage to begin about 30 to 45 days out, lead by Cowen and Morgan Stanley, after the initial research is done. That's when the websites will pick up more data. One of the key matters to consider is whom is NDLS's best peer?
    Jul 1 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Noodles The New Chipotle? [View article]
    thanks...right, $627 million not billion!
    Jul 1 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jack In The Box: No Growth Catalysts And Unjustifiable Valuation [View article]
    Agree that reason for and choice of Qdoba unit closes very telling. See my tweetline @JohnAGordon for last PMs press. 18 units closed in Chicago (5 in center city) , all 7 Manhattan stores. Looks to be small unit AUV base (head to head $CMG competition ?) along with high rents are the prime suspects.

    John A. Gordon
    Jun 28 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Einstein Noah Restaurant Group: Unlocking Value Through The Franchise Model [View article]
    Shaun: nice article. Does your fully capitalized ROI example from the prospectus consider all future years CAPEX or just CAPEX to date? While refranchsing is certainly a investment and asset allocation decision, the capacity of franchisees for CAPEX and expansion needs to considered.
    Jun 27 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jack In The Box: No Growth Catalysts And Unjustifiable Valuation [View article]
    One important note regarding $JACK is what is the new Qdoba thesis, given the closure of 67 company units last week. The market initially viewed it as mild good news, as the closure would eventually be accretive to earnings as all 67 stores were cash flow negative. But the other side of the story is: how did the Qdoba brand get so far off track so early? Its a signal that the burrito space finally may be overdone.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    Jun 27 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Roadhouse: Best Name In The Restaurant Industry, 100% Upside Potential [View article]
    TXRH has been on my earnings fundamentals standouts list the last several quarters. See my SA articles,

    My opinion is much has to do with their less than national penetration status (therefore runway for growth) and that steak centric operators have done well for some time.

    John A. Gordon
    Jun 20 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cosi: Meet The Poor Man's Panera [View article]
    InstlResAnlayst: actually, Au Bon Pain was the predecessor concept entity for Ron Saich and company, who later acquired St. Louis Bread and founded Panera. French name but not original operations.
    Jun 4 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cosi: Meet The Poor Man's Panera [View article]
    Nice job of recapping restaurant history.

    Much changed in the restaurant space from 1991 to 2003. US Restaurant density exploded.No surpise that PNRA would have an earlier movers advantage in getting sites and concept development.

    COSI got the locations that it could in the difficult 00s. Driving any of its major markets, as I did again in May while in Chicago, reveals the store location mix is the structural problem. Too many unbalanced locations. Until that problem, and the money for unit migration becomes available, we'll be talking suboptimal COSI results. But as to valuation, my opinion the company is worth a free cash flow multiple that it produces.

    John A. Gordon
    Pacific Management Consulting Group
    Jun 4 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carhops, Coneys, And Healthcare: Why I'm Short Sonic Drive-Ins, Part II [View article] SONC, its about the lower store margins but also the resulting declining US franchisee store count base.

    Thanks for the color above.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    May 6 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fast Food Chains Left With Multiple Hurdles [View article]
    Adam, I know you are a self described political and economical conservative, but I urge you to look at the big picture what drives restaurant stock growth. In the long term it's same store sales growth, number of units in operation, ROIC and operating margin. In the short term it's same store sales trends.

    Price is not everything and only part of the sales mix. In fact, low margined items generally depress profitability.

    We are pasing by the so called comps cliff caused by the 2012 better weather blip and last week's upgrades were telling. I'd note that each of the group of concerns you noted above apply to all restaurants, not just the QSR subset.

    John A. Gordon
    restaurant earnings and economics expert
    Apr 7 10:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's, I'm Not Lovin' Its Zero U.S. Sales Growth [View article]
    Interesting $MCD comments from BigMac 99, above.

    In response to Markos, your narrative highlights exactly why it is unfortunate that Mr. Market overvalues the same store sales metric. That is, the market moves in variance to fundamentals. Analysis of any retail sector investment, especially restaurants, requires much more than reading the same store sales weatherwave.

    John A. Gordon
    restaurant anlysis and advisory
    Mar 27 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment