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John Gordon  

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  • Is Chipotle Going To Serve Breakfast? [View article]
    The restaurant business is the sum of proper execution of thousands of small details. All of the following details must be considered before breakfast can be seen as an option:

    (1) Is there cannibalization of likely higher gross profit cents/item lunch/dinner items to lower cents/item breakfast items?
    (2) Incremental labor/marketing expense for the most highly priced to perfection company ever. Think: the Wendy's experience (WEN).
    (3) CMG has not one drive thru. At breakfast, price and speed are essential.
    (4) The most important factor: the Steve Ells factor. Is it right for the concept?
    Oct 7, 2013. 06:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Do With Darden After The Earnings Miss [View article]
    A new COO or CEO will not solve these isssues. With a company rich in heritgage and tradition, and 2200 locations, change does not occur rapidly. The question is, how do the brands transform to the new normal?

    Personal tweak: given these circumstances, the current PE is a lot more meaninful than the forward PE
    Sep 22, 2013. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jamba Juice: Why Q2 (Company Store) Sales Don't Really Matter [View article]
    Several comments, long investor...

    Company store sales do really matter. It's a proxy for profit flowthrough and a profit center going forward. If a company is publicly traded, that part of the metrics base.

    The JMBA model isnt broken. Management has been quite creative and working brand optimization since where they found it in 2007.

    Since "the story" is all about higher margined revenue streams like CPG and franchising, its somewhat amazing that neither this writeup nor company color in the earnings call discussed franchisee sales and economics whatsoever. That is the foundation for the "asset light model". The refranchsing has ocurred long ago enough to take a read.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    Aug 20, 2013. 04:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fast Casual Restaurants Continue To Gobble Up Casual Dining And Fast Food Customers [View article]
    Interesting article. Not sure that Qdoba is the best example, as its viability must be reconciled with its recently announced brand review and store closings. I wonder if fast casual success is more about individual brands (CMG, PNRA) versus a building/average check and service system type.
    Aug 12, 2013. 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Real Estate Model Realities [View article]
    153972: good questions. The data above is based on worldwide reported values. The MCD bias is to own propery where ever possible. China would require a special study.
    Aug 8, 2013. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Noodles The New Chipotle? [View article]
    Packer: Too soon for shorts. Just my opinion, but since they have just IPO'd and there are no covering analysts or guidance yet, they will be in a bubble for a year or so. Once NDLS gives annual guidance and if they miss or the growth story erodes, then that is the time for the shorts.
    Jul 4, 2013. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Noodles The New Chipotle? [View article]
    Jargon: the table in the article uses parameters from each companies one full year prior to IPO, from their respective S-1s. It is true NDLS has far fewer units than CMG currently, but thats not the point. The point is to compare NDLS prior to its IPO and then CMG prior to its IPO.
    Jul 4, 2013. 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Noodles The New Chipotle? [View article]
    Jay, look for the first analyst coverage to begin about 30 to 45 days out, lead by Cowen and Morgan Stanley, after the initial research is done. That's when the websites will pick up more data. One of the key matters to consider is whom is NDLS's best peer?
    Jul 1, 2013. 05:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Noodles The New Chipotle? [View article]
    thanks...right, $627 million not billion!
    Jul 1, 2013. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jack In The Box: No Growth Catalysts And Unjustifiable Valuation [View article]
    Agree that reason for and choice of Qdoba unit closes very telling. See my tweetline @JohnAGordon for last PMs press. 18 units closed in Chicago (5 in center city) , all 7 Manhattan stores. Looks to be small unit AUV base (head to head $CMG competition ?) along with high rents are the prime suspects.

    John A. Gordon
    Jun 28, 2013. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Einstein Noah Restaurant Group: Unlocking Value Through The Franchise Model [View article]
    Shaun: nice article. Does your fully capitalized ROI example from the prospectus consider all future years CAPEX or just CAPEX to date? While refranchsing is certainly a investment and asset allocation decision, the capacity of franchisees for CAPEX and expansion needs to considered.
    Jun 27, 2013. 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jack In The Box: No Growth Catalysts And Unjustifiable Valuation [View article]
    One important note regarding $JACK is what is the new Qdoba thesis, given the closure of 67 company units last week. The market initially viewed it as mild good news, as the closure would eventually be accretive to earnings as all 67 stores were cash flow negative. But the other side of the story is: how did the Qdoba brand get so far off track so early? Its a signal that the burrito space finally may be overdone.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    Jun 27, 2013. 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Texas Roadhouse: Best Name In The Restaurant Industry, 100% Upside Potential [View article]
    TXRH has been on my earnings fundamentals standouts list the last several quarters. See my SA articles,

    My opinion is much has to do with their less than national penetration status (therefore runway for growth) and that steak centric operators have done well for some time.

    John A. Gordon
    Jun 20, 2013. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cosi: Meet The Poor Man's Panera [View article]
    InstlResAnlayst: actually, Au Bon Pain was the predecessor concept entity for Ron Saich and company, who later acquired St. Louis Bread and founded Panera. French name but not original operations.
    Jun 4, 2013. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cosi: Meet The Poor Man's Panera [View article]
    Nice job of recapping restaurant history.

    Much changed in the restaurant space from 1991 to 2003. US Restaurant density exploded.No surpise that PNRA would have an earlier movers advantage in getting sites and concept development.

    COSI got the locations that it could in the difficult 00s. Driving any of its major markets, as I did again in May while in Chicago, reveals the store location mix is the structural problem. Too many unbalanced locations. Until that problem, and the money for unit migration becomes available, we'll be talking suboptimal COSI results. But as to valuation, my opinion the company is worth a free cash flow multiple that it produces.

    John A. Gordon
    Pacific Management Consulting Group
    Jun 4, 2013. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment