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John Gordon

 
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  • Noble Roman's Inc: Who Knew Pizza Could Be So Profitable [View article]
    I really appreciate that writer is long Noble Roman's. But as is often said, buyer beware.

    Growing up in Indiana and a IU Bloomington grad (where Noble's started in 1972), I know Noble. It was a small Indiana centric pizza operator, with a regional identity. For one reason or another, throughout the 1980s and 1990s, they lost it operationally and got out of the operating store business. As writer noted, they morphed to a franchisng and supply chain business in the late 1990s and 00s.

    Whether Noble actually has real open "stores" is debatable. When Noble refers to locations, they are referring to points of distribution, or PODs. Whether they count a sign or pizza box or actual products sold as a POD is a great question.

    Noble's 2000 era franchsing effort ended in disaster: EVERY one of their franchisees at a point sued in the mid 00s. It did divert management's attention. The franchisees lost the action via a series of rulings in 2009-2011, for a number of reasons. None are current franchisees, that is, their stores closed.

    It is a family operated operation. Its what you get.

    Hope springs eternal. Do due diligence.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant earnings and economics expert
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Sep 7, 2012. 02:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Don't Look Back; Burger King Is Gaining On You [View article]
    MCD v. BKW: they are really in two different classes, almost not comparable.

    If this article was written ten years ago, perhaps. But BKW is at least ten years behind, likely twenty years, with US and world-wide store store level AUVs two times or more higher than that of BKW. BKW suffered through a decade of private equity and poor internal management suboptimization. MCD is remodeling with existing cash flows, BKW is hoping to remodel VERY OLD stores based on franchisees money that hasn't been invested (or found) yet.

    And BKW will have to get past Wedny's first. And CKE Restaurants. And others. And it has to deal with its own in house retail guru, Bill Ackman, he who of Borders, Target and JCP fame.

    BKW has some same store sales momentum in the US right now, but I'd hope so, given the large number of new products and the ad fund investment.

    Let's watch the numbers.


    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Aug 14, 2012. 10:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Preview: CKE [View article]
    CK IPO was pulled at the last momement Thursday evening.

    Restaurant space momentim has cooled, with 50 days of earnings misses and soft sales from a range of companies. And CK would have been the 5th restaurant IPO in the last 60 days.

    As IPO Desktop indicates, CK's legacy interest costs would have depressed earnings (even thought they were improving), and resulted in a difficult, costly PE ratio. In addition, the debt/EBITDA ratio would have been high. Same store sales were positive and improving but only a low single dibit range.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Aug 10, 2012. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Preview: Del Frisco's Restaurant Group (DFRG) [View article]
    Steak operators have outperformed since 2010, a function of recovering business and high end travel and spending. For example, check out decent RUTH's SSS last week. At a $100 check, there will be only so many new sites possible. International development in worldclass gateway cities necessary.
    Aug 2, 2012. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Starbucks Should Jump In And Bid For Peet's: A Variety Of Ways To Create Synergy And Growth [View article]
    Peets and SBUX were closely aligned via founders relationships in the early 1980s, but both companies have progressed from that era.

    Such a costly M&A driven multiple is realistically unjustifiable.
    Jul 31, 2012. 11:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons 'Le' Starbucks Purchase Of La Boulange Is Beautiful [View article]
    SBUX is a great company with impressive management systems, but only time will tell whether they paid $100M for just food and pastry recipes.

    SBUX certainly has the free cash flow to buy it easily, but the fresh bakery business is capital intensive and location sensitive. Since SBUX is not able to transform their stores into mini-bakeries, some form of hub and spoke commissary system will be still necessary.
    Jul 2, 2012. 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Restaurant Same Store Sales Misses, Marketing Miscues? [View article]
    Jeff: thanks for your comments. I'll try to tap into ourt friends at MarketingNPV, http://bit.ly/KWS5yn, and get their stats on viewership. I agree with you social media is but yet another execution means.
    Jun 10, 2012. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Nathan's Famous Going To Be Taken Private? [View article]
    Wealth: the problem may have been not enough diversification, but for sure more research into restaurant fundamentals is necessary.
    For example, such buybacks and suboptimal size/scope of company unit operations says enough. Buybacks are not a wealth generator, only free cash flow is.

    Call anytime if you'd like to discuss chain restaurant fundamentals.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Apr 8, 2012. 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: The Correction Has Just Begun [View article]
    Mr. Efsinvestment: I understand your thought. However, I'm not sure most institutions, the bulk of the trading volume, invest in MCD for the solely for the dividend. I can't get past the point that INTC is not a peer of MCD, and its growth and dividend experience is driven by its fundamentals of its performance as it interfaces with others in the restaurant and consumer space.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Mar 19, 2012. 10:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: The Correction Has Just Begun [View article]
    INTC is not a proper peer of MCD.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Mar 11, 2012. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Burned By Margin-Squeezed Chipotle [View article]
    Vigilant: in your commentary above, you are almost totally focusing on same store sales data, but you are not benchmarking any of the metrics to anything relevant.

    What should price increases be? What should traffic be? What should store economics be? What should new unit growth be? What should G&A be? What should CAPEX be? What are their peers doing?

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Mar 4, 2012. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Get Burned By Margin-Squeezed Chipotle [View article]
    There is absolutely no evidence to believe anything about 2013 growth contracting. We've only just received 2012 CMG new store opening growth guidance, and it is up from 2011. CMG's growth profile will be driven primarily by its internal capabilities and the need to find suitable sites.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Feb 29, 2012. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carrols Restaurant Group's CEO Discusses Q4 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    $TAST: will be interesting to watch the new Fiesta--SSS up in both brands. Burger King SSS finally edging up but EBITDA and free cash flow down.
    Feb 29, 2012. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Is A Prime Short On Competition Fears [View article]
    Two restaurant fundamentals notes for author:

    (1) CMG is not in a position where it needs to lower prices. In fact, it needs some price increase over time to cover commodities.
    (2) price is but one component of value.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Feb 14, 2012. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Fundamentally Overpriced [View article]
    Same comments as to prior MCD article, MCD is cheap in my opinion. By focusing on fundamentals, the baseline and trend prospects for MCD's business components (restaurants, franchsing and real estate), and then comparing to peers, its lower valuation can be seen.

    Techno analysis only gets one so far.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Jan 15, 2012. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
176 Comments
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