Seeking Alpha

John Gordon

 
View as an RSS Feed
View John Gordon's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Don't Get Burned By Margin-Squeezed Chipotle [View article]
    There is absolutely no evidence to believe anything about 2013 growth contracting. We've only just received 2012 CMG new store opening growth guidance, and it is up from 2011. CMG's growth profile will be driven primarily by its internal capabilities and the need to find suitable sites.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Feb 29, 2012. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carrols Restaurant Group's CEO Discusses Q4 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    $TAST: will be interesting to watch the new Fiesta--SSS up in both brands. Burger King SSS finally edging up but EBITDA and free cash flow down.
    Feb 29, 2012. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Is A Prime Short On Competition Fears [View article]
    Two restaurant fundamentals notes for author:

    (1) CMG is not in a position where it needs to lower prices. In fact, it needs some price increase over time to cover commodities.
    (2) price is but one component of value.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Feb 14, 2012. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Fundamentally Overpriced [View article]
    Same comments as to prior MCD article, MCD is cheap in my opinion. By focusing on fundamentals, the baseline and trend prospects for MCD's business components (restaurants, franchsing and real estate), and then comparing to peers, its lower valuation can be seen.

    Techno analysis only gets one so far.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Jan 15, 2012. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Is 20% Overvalued -- Investors Should Sell [View article]
    MCD seems still cheap. By focusing on the fundamentals, in MCD's case real restaurant, franchsing and real estate margins and comparing to peers, and identifying growth components, a 17X PE is on the low end of expectations. Techno analysis only gets one so far.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Jan 15, 2012. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Is Overvalued And Won't Break $100 [View article]
    In fact, $MCD did close over $100, last week.

    Would suggest writer focus on fundamentals of potential worldwide restaurant growth. $YUM is not a proper peer as it is a bundle of three primarily international focused brands, concentated in China.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Jan 8, 2012. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • P.F. Chang's On The Rebound [View article]
    Jim, thanks for this article that displays the technical variables and viewpoints.

    As I'm a fundamantal buy side focused restaurant analyst, and look at fundamentals, my perspecive is different. For a number of reasons, PFCB has lost momenmtum the last 2-3 years. The quick casual Pei Wei chain has sluggishly developed, missing opportunities.

    The Bistro of the future test unit has just opened in Southern CA in December and some considerable time will be required to learn and effect feedback.. We see no fundamental drivers in the near term that would warrant anything beyond opportunistic balancing until a breakthrough event occurs. In addition to the Bistro, we;d look to see a logical ouyyears Pei Wei expansion template and energy, which we do not see now.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/sYPvCa
    Dec 28, 2011. 03:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sonic's CEO Discusses Q4 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Difficult Sonic ($SONC) earnings calls continue. This call could have been handled much better. Often, the longer the response, the less said and more conusion results.

    SONC likely is struggling supporting and promoting the 5 dayparts it covers with its ad fund budget. But instead, the false comparison to other competitors supporting just lunch/dinner was made. Every major QSR burger competitor must cover multiple dayparts.

    It was odd that the commodity basket inflation was not revealed. Inflation is a major current issue in the restaurant space and actually a good explanation for declining margins, but SONC didnt go there. Same with the OPEX uptick (deferred maintenance finally coming due).

    We have long advocated for more franchisee data disclosure. Franchisee conditions are certainly key to this situation, particularly since the franchisee unit base is much larger now after SONC's significant refranchising in 2008-2010

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Oct 19, 2011. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panera Bread: A Restaurant For The Recession [View article]
    Nice article....but a bit off in the peer group comparison. PNRA's peer is not THI. Tim Horton's is a donut shop, with only very regional US penetration, and is a peer of DNKN and Krispy Kreme.

    PNRA does not have an national scope competitor other than the much smaller Corner Bakery, which is PE owned and beginning to ramp up. Interestingly, the Corner Bakery AUVs are said to be higher than that of PNRA, so perhaps they have some good locations.

    That said, the quick casual set has grown share (both sales, units and AUV growth), with both PNRA and CMG leading the way.

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant analysis and advisory
    http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Oct 18, 2011. 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Krispy Kreme: Turnaround That's Making Shareholder Profits [View article]
    $KKD--a long term turnaround playing out; several interesting fundamentals notes when you dig:

    (1) Company US SSS plus 2.5%, franchisees plus 6.3% but international minus 11.7%. Company doesn't have franchisee transaction data. In the US, "on premise" segment price component was positive 14%, traffic 11% negative.

    (2) company stores posted an $1M Q2 EBITDA loss, but $1.1M for first half. Most of company margin and earnings dollars comes from supply chain.
    Aug 30, 2011. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carrols Restaurant Group CEO Discusses Q2 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Note Burger King SSS still down, 3.7% for quarter, 6 month BK segment EBITDA (includes G&A) at only 3.7%. Pollo Tropical had almost 6 times higher segement EBITDA, at 18.7%.
    Aug 9, 2011. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Restaurant Review: What's Cooking and What's Not [View article]
    Two thoughts come to mind upon conclusion of this piece:

    (1) focus on the forwardlooking fundamentals, not the fluff.
    (2) prior performnce does not guarantee future results.

    John A Gordon
    chain restaurant earnings and economics experts
    pacificmanagementconsu...
    Aug 1, 2011. 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kona Grill: The Next Restaurant Superstar? [View article]
    With all due respect to Mike, and to the author, who of course, is LONG, the 20 unit Kona has a long way and crowded field to traverse before it gets to superstar status.

    John A. Gordon
    restaurant analysis and advisory
    pacificmanagementconsu...
    Jul 19, 2011. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Darden Restaurants' CEO Discusses Q3 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    June 28 2011, Darden (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) Q4 update: currently Darden is featuring Carbonara Ravioli ($10.95) and same with shrimp ($12.95), and has associated TV spot, but all I see on television is $6.99 unlimited soup, salad and breadsticks. Ad agency just burning off spare GRPs or a real media strategy thrust?

    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant earnings and economics experts
    www.pacificmanagementc...//
    Jun 28, 2011. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jack in the Box's CEO Discusses Q2 2011 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Several interesting notes we heard from JACK's Q2 Earnings Call:

    (1) the Jack in the Box negative same store sales run has been effectively snapped, having been positive now in both Q1 and Q2. JACK (and other California centric QSR operators) were skewed by the CA/SW US slump but now recovering.

    (2) JACK remained true to its strategy of remodeling, improving core products and bundled/new meals platforms, with the $4.99 All American Jack the major media Q2 feature. Contrast this to the generally poor results of the $1 TV burger operator results. (BKC)

    (3) JACK has gotten only modest franchise margin leverage this far: with another 700 franchised stores, it's total EBITDA $ per franchisee was about $95,882 per store in 2010, versus $90,909 in 2006. Its getting about a 5% royalty and a 3.5% rent spread.

    (4) analysts were fully consumed tracking how JACK's AUVs and margins were changing on a real basis versus as a store operated mix basis, with more Qdoba and more franchisees. There were no questions on franchisees.


    John A. Gordon
    chain restaurant earnings and economics experts
    pacificmanagementconsu...
    May 23, 2011. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
180 Comments
75 Likes