Seeking Alpha

John Gordon's  Instablog

John A. Gordon is Principal and Founder of Pacific Management Consulting Group (http://www.pacificmanagementconsultinggroup.com/), an association of service sector senior management professionals providing management consulting and advisory expertise to restaurant, hospitality and multi-unit... More
My business:
Pacific Management Consulting Group
My blog:
pacificmanagementcon...
  • Some Chain Restaurants Gaining Sales Traction
     
     
    Thus far in Q3 2009 earnings season, most of the chain restaurants have delivered “good” earnings results: generally negative sales comp results, favorable commodity and other cost reductions and as a result meeting EPS expectations.
    More »
    Oct 27 01:19 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Chili's New Menu Test Underway
    We were able to get into a Chili's (EAT) test unit for lunch today, and there are some interesting menu items in the works. All are lower priced, menu adds or new platforms that may give Chili's some new news to talk about, particularly at lunch, or in conjunction with bar themes.

    Chili's has redone its menu face and is featuring its burgers, ribs and fajitas heritage, while adding the triple dipper menu (preset items, $9.99). It's also featuring $4.99 Margaritas and happy hour begins at 300P in many units, as well.

    The new items added are mostly lower than $10 and speak to a more lunch time, snack, sandwich focus:

    4 new entree salads: Caribbean, Asian Noodle, BBQ Chicken, Chicken Caesar for $8.79 (most) to $11.29 (shrimp, salmon)

    4 new sandwiches/wraps: Turkey, Carne Adada , BBQ Pulled Pork, Chicken Wrap: for $6.99 to $7.99

    5 new taco items: chicken, shrimp, pulled pork, ground beef and combination, for about $8.99.

    Store management indicated that while it was a test, the tacos and sandwiches were selling well and had largely favorable reaction. 
    While we haven't seen all of the menu items, the percentage gross profit shouldn't be bad.

    We all know it will take some promotional muscle to establish these new items in the marketplace. The market is so crowded, and messages get lost quickly. For
    example, Macaroni Grill (former EAT, now privately held) began broadcast featuring its almost totally redone menu recently. 

    The valuation is still cheap and has a run of upgrades since November, 2008.
    Current year EPS estimate is $1.31, about a 13 multiple. We'll see how earnings go tomorrow. I've been in four Chili's in the last month and they look about steady to me.  

    Disclosure: no positions




         
    Oct 19 07:41 pm | Link | Comment!
  • High Stakes Burger King Remodel Still Work In Progress
    High Stakes Burger King Remodel Still Work in Progress
     
    Burger King (BKC) is releasing earnings on October 29th,, and needs some big news to reassure investors as well as ultimately drive sales. On October 17th, its featuring the $1 double cheeseburgers via national advertising, as Wendy’s (WEN) just began rolling out their new burger, Carl’s and Hardee’s (CKR) new burgers, and of course, McDonald’s (MCD) endless promotion of the Angus Burger. The Burger universe is crowded.
    More »
    Oct 15 12:04 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Starved for Comps: Important Burger King Promo in October

    The Burger King $1 doublecheeseburger campaign starts nationally on October 19. For Burger King, its high stakes. For the QSR sector, its a way to detect whether the $1 value focus will actually payoff.

    In its August 25th earnings call, CEO John Chidsey indicated they were happy with the early $1 double results in about 40 markets. Earlier this year, Burger king and its franchisees failed twice to come to agreement to promote it, and these must be test markets or company markets.

    Burger King noted the $1 double promotion narrowed the traffic losses it was realizing earlier, and market profitability outperformed the assumed gross profit dilution. The VP of Strategy said it was a superior sandwich at an exceptional value. And, they declined to provide actual traffic gains in these markets.

    More »
    Sep 28 12:56 pm | Link | Comment!
  • QSR "Weakness" vs. Casual Dining Optimism
    Yesterday’s news about McDonald’s (MCD) sales softness made the restaurant universe move, and pulled down other QSR operators (YUM, BKC) yesterday, so far today, September 10.
    But this should not have been new news. The QSR sector has been weakening for some time, as the table of selected “national/international” QSR and Casual Dining operators, 6 quarters of SSS shows:  
     
    More »
    Sep 10 02:03 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Burger King v. Popeye's: Factors for Popeye's Comps Gain ?
    Last week, we got the Q4 and full year earnings of Burger King (BKC) and on August 20th, the Q2 earnings of Popeye’s (AFCE). Burger King reported disappointing sales comparables—US/Canada down 4.5%, while AFSC was one of the very rare chain restaurant universe gainers—up 4.3%.
     
    We were intrigued as to why such a large sales performance difference.
    More »
    Aug 31 12:44 am | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »

StockTalks

  • We know DRI knows everything...but check out 9 week long promotions--is that too long to sustain interest?http://bit.ly/m8ad9
    Sep 30, 2009
  • MCD: New Angus Burger field tests: dry, no flavor profile. Must watch pre-cooked product standards. We are analysts and not stock traders.
    Aug 18, 2009
  • Q4 EAT--Chili's sales, mix and traffic numbers seem weak- comp sales minus 9.4%, traffic minus 10.5 (as imputed). Was it a July turn?
    Aug 06, 2009
More »
Posts by Ticker
AFCE, ANF, BJRI, BKC, BWLD, CAKE, CIT, CKE, CKR, CMG, CPKI, DIN, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, KKD, MCD, MRT, MSSR, PFCB, PNRA, RRGB, RT, RUTH, SBUX, SNS, SONC, WEN, YUM

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.