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John H. Ford's  Instablog

John H. Ford
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For the past 30 years, I have been involved in startups, as a founder, and active investor. My first company was purchased by Johnson & Johnson, which set the foundation for future investments. My level of trading escalated after graduating from college, primarily as a result of my... More
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  • 2014 Results

    2014's average peak gain per trade came in at 41%, well below 2013's 124% average. A 41% gain is definitely respectable, but well below my goal of 50% to 100%. Here are the results:

    1. Finjan: 66% gain.
    2. Cynapsus: 58% gain.
    3. uSell: 26% gain.
    4. Drone Aviation: 15% gain.

    Average gain per trade: 41%

    One primary cause for the decline in results was based on publishing after the shareprice had already run up 50% to 100%. This has proven to be a nemesis in my trading strategy, and something that I need to correct.

    The other error I made in 2014 occurred with Drone Aviation, where the reverse merger generated a large number of cheap shares that were sold indiscriminately, preventing the shareprice from rising above 15%, and subsequently driving the share price down to ridiculous levels. I was blindsided by the complex capital structure, something I aim to correct in the future.

    However, 2014's mediocre results were offset by some of my 2013 trades which rocketed into the stratosphere in 2014. For example Marathon which only provided a 17% gain in 2013, went up over 350% from my initial coverage price. An even better performer was 22nd Century, which went from $1 to over $6. Some of my 2012 picks also performed well in 2014; for example Isoray went from $.70 to almost $4 and Neuralstem went from my $.60 buy in price to $4.80.

    Results for all trades since I began publishing on Seeking Alpha

    The average peak gain per trade for the 4 years I've been publishing on Seeking Alpha is 60%. That's on the low end of my intended 50% to 100% but within the ballpark. All gains are calculated based on the closing price one day prior to publication.

    My goal for 2015

    My primary goal for 2015 will be to significantly improve my 60% gain per trade number. In the past my focus has been on short-term trades. That will still remain my primary strategy, however in 2015 I intend to combine longer-term investment potential with a short-term trading strategy. In other words, I will be looking for companies that are extremely undervalued, with near-term catalysts that provide short-term trading opportunities. But I will also try to add the element of longer-term investment potential, because I believe this will limit the downside risk and provide greater returns. My ideal trade will be a company that provides a 50% to 100% short-term gain, and longer-term gains well above 500%.

    Jan 12 10:22 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Marathon Could Become One Of The Most Successful Patent Monetization Companies In The World

    When I first began covering Marathon, the stock was trading in the $4.50 range. I more than doubled my position when it hit $14, and last Friday it closed at $17.66, up over 8% on the day. With a mind-boggling number of catalysts in the next few months, this run-up could continue with a vengeance.

    When CEO Doug Croxall commented on Q3 results, he made a very significant statement that I think investors overlooked. He stated that Marathon has the wherewithal to become one of the most successful patent monetization companies in the world.

    What makes this statement particularly important is that it came from a CEO who has proven to be extremely conservative in nature. I had breakfast with Doug last year in Los Angeles, and observed that he is not a leader to make exaggerated claims. In fact he is quite the opposite. When he publicly states that he believes Marathon could become one of the most successful patent monetization companies in the world, that's not to be taken lightly. After observing him in action, and witnessing the company's better-than-expected execution, I believe his prediction will materialize.

    Disclaimer and disclosure: It is probable that the author and his associates have a position in the subject securities consistent with the opinion expressed in this article and they reserve the right to buy and/or sell the securities mentioned in this article, at any time without further notice. For complete disclosure and disclaimer information please click here.

    Disclosure: The author is long MARA.

    Dec 07 8:30 AM | Link | Comment!
  • I Am Long Cynapsus Therapeutics

    I have initiated a long position in Cynapsus Therapeutics (OTCQX:CYNAF). The company will soon be reporting Phase 2 data, and if the data is positive, Cynapsus should be valued above $500 million, equal to that of its closest competitor Civatas which was recently purchased for $525 million cash. Cynapsus is currently valued at $56 million, has $18 million in cash, and no debt. I will publish a detailed analysis once the company completes its NASDAQ up listing.

    Disclaimer and disclosure: It is probable that the author and his associates have a position in the subject securities consistent with the opinion expressed in this article and they reserve the right to buy and/or sell the securities mentioned in this article, at any time without further notice. For complete disclosure and disclaimer information please click here.

    Disclosure: The author is long CYNAF.

    Nov 06 9:57 AM | Link | 17 Comments
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