John Hampson

Long/short equity, long-term horizon, research analyst, gold
John Hampson
Long/short equity, long-term horizon, research analyst, gold
Contributor since: 2011
Understand how geomagnetic storms influences stocks and commodities:
http://bit.ly/zBqVIb
You can now follow me at http://solarcycles.net - formerly amalgamator.co.uk
Thanks Thomas. I will be revamping the website at the end of the year and will look into adding that.
Thanks also
Thanks
Hello all,
This is my last article for Seeking Alpha as I don't feel there is a good fit between SA's focus on fundamentals alone, and my approach which unites technicals, cycles, senitment, seasonals etc along with fundamentals. SA isn't keen on publishing articles that focus more on these other disciplines, but I don't want to narrow my scope. Those who wish to read my work can find me at amalgamator.co.uk. I wish the site and its readers all the best.
John
Pseudogrowth it may be, but it drives stocks and commodities to higher prices, which is what I'm interested in as a trader.
Re shadowstats gdp, clearly gdp data lags, and leading indicators (ecri, conference board, bloom fc, stock market, money supply, manufacturing data) all point to acceleration, so I expect their alt data to turn positive, once the data comes in.
Hi MJE
I cover that issue of 'better detection' rather than 'more occurences' for natural phenomena here:
amalgamator.co.uk/10Na...
In short, it can only be partially accountable.
US civil war - yes, 1860 was a solar peak.
And yes, the data suggests rising pro-action, demonstration and conflict alongside rising commodity prices and inflation into 2013, so I too expect a feedback loop between the two.
All the best
John
Perhaps it came across as a little dismissive of a key issue. I have studied peak oil and am aware of the timeline. My point is that on EIA forecasts we are only going to approach the lower end of historical crude inventories by the end of next year, so as a near term price driver that slack is a depressant.
Regarding sunspots I assume that it's field you haven't studied otherwise you wouldn't be so quick to disregard it.
Hi JD, I look out for your articles. Don't think we're too far apart. amalgamator.co.uk/2011...
You're right Charlie, it's kind of a duplication on the oil/dollar. My thinking was serious dollar breakdown - surge into commodities - oil kills.
Somehow between subtmitting my article and it being published by SA point 7 has been moved up - it should be the first one under leading indicators.
Stock market historian, Russell Napier. But I'm totally with you on that point - makes it difficult to compare. That's why I made it a watch item despite USA and Europe 'officially' some way below the threshold.
A problem with publishing - the final paragraph "So what about.....rhyme of the 1970s" should lie inbetween the USD-JPY chart and the Dollar Spot Index / 1970s chart.
Interesting stat, thanks
Absolutely, Q ratio and real (inflation ajusted) P/es have to fall to give us a convincing secular bottom in equities, and I track both on my site, as well as regression to trend. I repeat my comment above that I expect a cyclical stocks bear to follow the current cyclical stocks bull to end this secular stocks bear, which I expect to give us a higher nominal low than March 2009 but a lower real (inflation adjusted) low.
After the current cyclical stocks bull, a cyclical stocks bear to end the secular stocks bear, with treasuries a catalyst and likely some policy responses to strong arm domestic capital into treasuries. From this bleak scenario, historically low real equity valuations and extreme commodity-stocks ratios should initiate a secular stocks bull.
Thanks for all the positive comments
Not at all. It's demonstrating that significant money supply and liquidity expansion is the perfect preparation for a secular stocks bull.
500%+ stock market moves follow periods of monetary inflation - see last chart here: amalgamator.co.uk/2011...
Yes, covered elsewhere: 7th chart here: amalgamator.co.uk/2011...
Hello all,
I am long Natural Gas April contract (expires 28th March) not UNG ETF. This is a trade not an investment, and that is my window for weather, stockpiles and oil price to work in my favour, so let's see. I haven't ingored the supply side because tracking stockpiles reflects demand net of supply - we don't have a glut any more. Not sure how seasonals no longer apply when it can be seen clearly and up to date in the 3rd chart in the stockpile trends.
John.