To put things in perspective Nvidia generated $229M in revenue from Notebook GPU's in 3Q 2012...mostly from mainstream uber luxury models and gaming laptops. That segment will probably be down at least 10% this year with further improvements in Intel GPU technology. How much of the $229M is from Gaming laptops vs. mainstream uber luxury laptops would be nice to know.
As you know the high margins come from gaming GPU's. The GPU desktop market split between Nvidia and AMD is currently 66% to 34% in 4Q. Probably shift a few percentage points in AMD's favor as it historically has when this market share percentage split has been reached.
The main thrust at AMD is the X86 semi-custom route with all the console wins which should generate $200M+ revenue per quarter. Margins might not be as good, but mainstream Notebook GPU's are not all that much better.
Intel: Something Big Is Coming In April [View article]
When a professed long term investor as the author talks about buying or selling weekly options, he/she is usually the seller. I like the other S/A Intel article posted today. More appropriate for longer term investors.
Google Finally Writes Nvidia's Euology With Nexus Snub [View article]
Appreciate all opinions Tom, But with IBM, Csco, Dell, HP, VMWare, and Citrix backing Nvidia's Grid I seriously doubt now would be a good time to short Nvidia. Let's bookmark this article and see. At the time of publishing for this article Nvidia's stock price was $12.47.
Intel: There Is No Apple Foundry Deal [View article]
Now is not the time to be bullish on Intel. It has a number of headwinds: 1) Goldman Sachs sell price target lowered to 16 from 20. I've learned through other semis to not ignore GS at my own peril. 2) No CEO has been named..uncertainty breeds confusion! 3) Capex is way too high. Too bad it's required to shrink the Atom chip to make it competitive with ARM chips and still comes up short. 4) X86 PC market is shrinking. Moore's law has a corollary. Cost increases equal or greater than the number of transistor increases. 5) The only way Intel can fill their fabs is with: a) a huge foundry arrangement with Apple at a lower margin. b) or a stunning smartphone and tablet application processor market share approching 30%..
For reference - Atom chips and chipsets generated $1.6B in 2010 during the hey dey of netbooks. Netbooks sold worldwide were 50M.
I do find it hard to believe that GS thinks Intel will hit $16. That's a 5.6% dividend yield....but perhaps 18 or a 5% dividend yield buy entry point would be sufficient. Dividend hunters have it on their watch lists as I do.
Nvidia's Upcoming Catalysts To Trade [View article]
The technicals look ugly, and I expect a correction to the mid-$11 November lows You're right, some short covering action on the way up, but the higher volume one would expect is sorely missing. 71324
Short Interest and Volume has stayed relatively flat during the rise from $11.50. It's like it's off all the trader's radar. By the way Beta is 1.63. I remember when it use to peg over 2. Must be the dividend and the active share buyback plus the largest institutional investment percentage in 2 years. But hey trade it you wish and good luck to you
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover 2/15/2013 19,069,121 12,665,422 1.505605 1/31/2013 16,669,716 9,971,878 1.671673 1/15/2013 22,089,865 11,888,628 1.858067 12/31/2012 20,498,284 8,197,794 2.500463 12/14/2012 22,232,030 11,627,484 1.912024 11/30/2012 22,599,925 10,342,385 2.185175 11/15/2012 13,733,949 12,843,361 1.069342
Nvidia's Upcoming Catalysts To Trade [View article]
"It is not something to put in one's investment portfolio." 71324
Marty Whitman's of Third Avenue Management thinks it is.
Third Avenue purchased 2.15 million shares of NVIDIA Corp. for $12.43 per share on average, giving the holding a 1.15% weighting in their portfolio
Third Avenue also commented on NVIDIA in its first quarter letter: “Our primary attractions to NVIDIA (NVDA) are its leading market position in graphics processors (GPUs) and, more recently, the strides it has taken to address the growing mobile computing market (tablets and smart phones). Its tablet and smart phone offerings are based on ARM designs for low power applications, enabling us, as investors, to benefit from growth in the adoption of ARM designs, but at much more attractive pricing than buying ARM shares directly. The GPU market is being driven by an increasing demand for graphics due to increasing digital content design (e.g., videos, commercials, 3-D interactive content, product design) and are used heavily in work stations and supercomputers, where high-end computing is used for design and simulation.”
"It's easy to win synthetics when you throw lots of cores at the problem. Single threaded performance in more than a simple synthetic benchmark is much more important for most workloads." Ashraf
I apologize in advance but do you realize how inane you comment sounds? Let's just review the facts:
Microsoft Surface Pro uses an Intel Core I5 part# 3317u. The cheapest model sells for $899 and Does Not Include Microsoft Office. It has to be that price because Intel charges at least $225 for their chip.
Microsoft Win RT with Tegra 3 costs $499 and Includes Microsoft Office.
Now Nvidia and Geekbench say the Intel part#3317u and Tegra 4 are roughly equivalent Intel I5 - 4679, Tegra 4 - 4592. This is a sea change!
Certainly Microsoft will come out with a Tegra 4 Win RT soon. Might cost as much as $504. Only $395 less...than an Intel CPU.
Now if you have to run Legacy apps then an X86 processor is what you want, But the only legacy apps I have run in the last 10 years is Excel and Power Point which are included free on the Surface Win RT.
I also have to ponder the audacity of Nvidia of using benchmarks against Intel. After all Intel was the first to use them with great effectiveness against AMD.
If Intel sells 250 with 60% gross margin, how much you expect Nvidia gross margin to be with 25$ selling price? Matt-Man
I always thought Intel was overcharging or their costs were out of control or some combination of both but with that said I will give it a shot.
I believe TSMC charges $6500 for a 12 inch wafer now at 28nm. At a die size 80 sq. mm. Using a fab yield of 80% (note: that is a really small die when you think of the fact that Nvidia builds GTX 680 GPUs at a die size of 294 sq. mm or the GTX Titan GPU at 551 sq. mm.) would give you a die cost $9 a piece. Throw in $2 for package and test for a total cost of $11. This would be a gross margin of 56%. Of course they might charge more say $30 tops and raise the gross margin accordingly.
"As Tegra4 will be available about same time as Haswell, it will not look so good in overall comparison."
Haswell will be at least $250 a chip, Tegra 4 will be $25 and we are comparing them using benchmarks and arguing which one has a higher performance. That's the real story to me!
"Engadget has a 6195 score for a Core i5 1.8Ghz." Cincinnatus,
Nvidia was comparing a 1.7 Ghz specific Intel part# 3317u...retail price $225 according to Wikipedia against a $25 ARM chip.
I know it's a schock for an ARM vendor to compare their mobile parts to an Intel X86 mobile part in performance but let's see what happens rather than denying the validity of the claim out right.
I for one think that this is an inflection point. If not this generation then certainly in the next one.
Nvidia: Lots Of Value, But Needs A Catalyst [View article]
With that said Nvidia does have value, but when the growth catalysts will come is an open question.
AMD Takes The Fight To Nvidia [View article]
As you know the high margins come from gaming GPU's. The GPU desktop market split between Nvidia and AMD is currently 66% to 34% in 4Q. Probably shift a few percentage points in AMD's favor as it historically has when this market share percentage split has been reached.
The main thrust at AMD is the X86 semi-custom route with all the console wins which should generate $200M+ revenue per quarter. Margins might not be as good, but mainstream Notebook GPU's are not all that much better.
Intel: Something Big Is Coming In April [View article]
http://bit.ly/YDcg9s
Should You Buy Intel? [View article]
Good article, like the focus on dividend growth potential.
Google Finally Writes Nvidia's Euology With Nexus Snub [View article]
But with IBM, Csco, Dell, HP, VMWare, and Citrix backing Nvidia's Grid I seriously doubt now would be a good time to short Nvidia. Let's bookmark this article and see. At the time of publishing for this article Nvidia's stock price was $12.47.
Intel: There Is No Apple Foundry Deal [View article]
1) Goldman Sachs sell price target lowered to 16 from 20. I've learned through other semis to not ignore GS at my own peril.
2) No CEO has been named..uncertainty breeds confusion!
3) Capex is way too high. Too bad it's required to shrink the Atom chip to make it competitive with ARM chips and still comes up short.
4) X86 PC market is shrinking. Moore's law has a corollary. Cost increases equal or greater than the number of transistor increases.
5) The only way Intel can fill their fabs is with:
a) a huge foundry arrangement with Apple at a lower margin.
b) or a stunning smartphone and tablet application processor market share approching 30%..
For reference - Atom chips and chipsets generated $1.6B in 2010 during the hey dey of netbooks. Netbooks sold worldwide were 50M.
I do find it hard to believe that GS thinks Intel will hit $16. That's a 5.6% dividend yield....but perhaps 18 or a 5% dividend yield buy entry point would be sufficient. Dividend hunters have it on their watch lists as I do.
Nvidia's Upcoming Catalysts To Trade [View article]
71324
Short Interest and Volume has stayed relatively flat during the rise from $11.50. It's like it's off all the trader's radar. By the way Beta is 1.63. I remember when it use to peg over 2. Must be the dividend and the active share buyback plus the largest institutional investment percentage in 2 years. But hey trade it you wish and good luck to you
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
2/15/2013 19,069,121 12,665,422 1.505605
1/31/2013 16,669,716 9,971,878 1.671673
1/15/2013 22,089,865 11,888,628 1.858067
12/31/2012 20,498,284 8,197,794 2.500463
12/14/2012 22,232,030 11,627,484 1.912024
11/30/2012 22,599,925 10,342,385 2.185175
11/15/2012 13,733,949 12,843,361 1.069342
Nvidia's Upcoming Catalysts To Trade [View article]
71324
Marty Whitman's of Third Avenue Management thinks it is.
Third Avenue purchased 2.15 million shares of NVIDIA Corp. for $12.43 per share on average, giving the holding a 1.15% weighting in their portfolio
Third Avenue also commented on NVIDIA in its first quarter letter: “Our primary attractions to NVIDIA (NVDA) are its leading market position in graphics processors (GPUs) and, more recently, the strides it has taken to address the growing mobile computing market (tablets and smart phones). Its tablet and smart phone offerings are based on ARM designs for low power applications, enabling us, as investors, to benefit from growth in the adoption of ARM designs, but at much more attractive pricing than buying ARM shares directly. The GPU market is being driven by an increasing demand for graphics due to increasing digital content design (e.g., videos, commercials, 3-D interactive content, product design) and are used heavily in work stations and supercomputers, where high-end computing is used for design and simulation.”
http://bit.ly/10mFngs
Nvidia: Are The Bulls In Control? [View article]
Is Nvidia Dead money above $12.00 as you have stated before or is it not?
I for one do not believe it is dead money above $12.00 but perhaps you still believe it is?
What say you?
P.S. We are all not day traders.
Nvidia: Are The Bulls In Control? [View article]
SKS1586
Do you speak for Ashraf?
I say Nvidia is not dead money above $12.00, let's hear from him? soon I hope. We're all not day traders you know?
Nvidia: Are The Bulls In Control? [View article]
Do you still think "Nvidia is dead money above 12" as you said in another article a couple of weeks ago?
For the record I don't, but curious what you think.
Was Nvidia's Sacrifice Worth It? [View article]
Ashraf
I apologize in advance but do you realize how inane you comment sounds? Let's just review the facts:
Microsoft Surface Pro uses an Intel Core I5 part# 3317u. The cheapest model sells for $899 and Does Not Include Microsoft Office. It has to be that price because Intel charges at least $225 for their chip.
Microsoft Win RT with Tegra 3 costs $499 and Includes Microsoft Office.
Now Nvidia and Geekbench say the Intel part#3317u and Tegra 4 are roughly equivalent Intel I5 - 4679, Tegra 4 - 4592. This is a sea change!
Certainly Microsoft will come out with a Tegra 4 Win RT soon. Might cost as much as $504. Only $395 less...than an Intel CPU.
Now if you have to run Legacy apps then an X86 processor is what you want, But the only legacy apps I have run in the last 10 years is Excel and Power Point which are included free on the Surface Win RT.
I also have to ponder the audacity of Nvidia of using benchmarks against Intel. After all Intel was the first to use them with great effectiveness against AMD.
Was Nvidia's Sacrifice Worth It? [View article]
Matt-Man
I always thought Intel was overcharging or their costs were out of control or some combination of both but with that said I will give it a shot.
I believe TSMC charges $6500 for a 12 inch wafer now at 28nm. At a die size 80 sq. mm. Using a fab yield of 80% (note: that is a really small die when you think of the fact that Nvidia builds GTX 680 GPUs at a die size of 294 sq. mm or the GTX Titan GPU at 551 sq. mm.) would give you a die cost $9 a piece. Throw in $2 for package and test for a total cost of $11. This would be a gross margin of 56%. Of course they might charge more say $30 tops and raise the gross margin accordingly.
Was Nvidia's Sacrifice Worth It? [View article]
Haswell will be at least $250 a chip, Tegra 4 will be $25 and we are comparing them using benchmarks and arguing which one has a higher performance. That's the real story to me!
Was Nvidia's Sacrifice Worth It? [View article]
Cincinnatus,
Nvidia was comparing a 1.7 Ghz specific Intel part# 3317u...retail price $225 according to Wikipedia against a $25 ARM chip.
I know it's a schock for an ARM vendor to compare their mobile parts to an Intel X86 mobile part in performance but let's see what happens rather than denying the validity of the claim out right.
I for one think that this is an inflection point. If not this generation then certainly in the next one.