Comments on John Hempton's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-hempton/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-378875 378875 Fri, 06 Feb 2009 17:15:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-221304 221304 Sat, 02 Aug 2008 23:12:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78111-royal-bank-of-scotland-ceo-deathwatch?source=feed#comment-206467 206467 Tue, 15 Jul 2008 20:04:25 -0400 But if you believe even for one second that the company has fully recognised the losses in its vast balance sheet then you are deranged.
It is true that even NET of the minority interests in ABN Amro the bank remains the largest in the world. That is interesting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78111-royal-bank-of-scotland-ceo-deathwatch?source=feed#comment-206125 206125 Admittedly RBS consolidated the interests of Santander and Fortis in the ABN Amro acquisition – but even net of those minorities RBS remains the biggest balance sheet in the world. Minorities? The total size of those 'minority' stakes sums to vastly more than the RBS stake. The so-what is obvious. In times of a credit crisis – when seemingly safe AAA rated assets are defaulting – big balance sheets are likely to have big problems. They do – and the stock price is telling you. RBS stock is startlingly weak. The company however seem to believe everything is fine – and only miniscule charges have been taken. You are talking about total balance sheet size without discussing what that balance sheet contains. There are banks even bigger than citigroup whose profits have risen recently. Take HSBC, or of course the 'ABN Amro'-purchasing-currently-acquisition-mad Santander whose chief is being hailed as the king of banking this year. Banks need to operate with gearing. RBS's banking model has brought them from a regional bank to a world superpower in banking terms. >15% dividend growth over >15 years is not to be sniffed at. If anything, RBS were faster than their competitors in admitting difficulties in the current market, and were first in the UK (and it seems, most successful) to raise cash to allow a gigantic writedown (30bn US$) as provision against possible writeoffs. The big question, that this article fails to address, is, 'what is on the balance sheet', not 'how big is the balance sheet'? Disclosure: long RBS, HSBC. ]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:38:07 -0400 Admittedly RBS consolidated the interests of Santander and Fortis in the ABN Amro acquisition – but even net of those minorities RBS remains the biggest balance sheet in the world.

Minorities?

The total size of those 'minority' stakes sums to vastly more than the RBS stake.

The so-what is obvious. In times of a credit crisis – when seemingly safe AAA rated assets are defaulting – big balance sheets are likely to have big problems. They do – and the stock price is telling you. RBS stock is startlingly weak. The company however seem to believe everything is fine – and only miniscule charges have been taken.

You are talking about total balance sheet size without discussing what that balance sheet contains. There are banks even bigger than citigroup whose profits have risen recently. Take HSBC, or of course the 'ABN Amro'-purchasing-curre... Santander whose chief is being hailed as the king of banking this year.

Banks need to operate with gearing. RBS's banking model has brought them from a regional bank to a world superpower in banking terms. >15% dividend growth over >15 years is not to be sniffed at.

If anything, RBS were faster than their competitors in admitting difficulties in the current market, and were first in the UK (and it seems, most successful) to raise cash to allow a gigantic writedown (30bn US$) as provision against possible writeoffs.

The big question, that this article fails to address, is, 'what is on the balance sheet', not 'how big is the balance sheet'?

Disclosure: long RBS, HSBC. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84517-mbia-ambac-and-gics-the-other-view?source=feed#comment-203431 203431 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 20:26:13 -0400
A financial that loses the faith of the markets is usually dead. Witness Indy Mac. What happens there is that their funding disappears.

Ambac and MBIA are NOT FUNDED MODELS. Its a trivial point - but they have issued guarantees. If the market loses faith - so what. Put them in runoff.

If it turns out well then all is well.

But with Indy Mac the market lost faith and the government (aka FDIC) stepped in.

Crocodilian misses point. These do not require faith of the market. If anything faith of the market is a BAD THING because they can buy back some CDS issued at a discount...

J]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84517-mbia-ambac-and-gics-the-other-view?source=feed#comment-203293 203293 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:36:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84517-mbia-ambac-and-gics-the-other-view?source=feed#comment-203285 203285 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:31:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84517-mbia-ambac-and-gics-the-other-view?source=feed#comment-203238 203238 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:27:52 -0400 biz.yahoo.com/bw/08071...
doest it make you a believer now?
I would say yes!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84517-mbia-ambac-and-gics-the-other-view?source=feed#comment-203231 203231 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:18:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84517-mbia-ambac-and-gics-the-other-view?source=feed#comment-202863 202863 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:26:13 -0400
www.thestreet.com/_yah...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84517-mbia-ambac-and-gics-the-other-view?source=feed#comment-202836 202836 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:10:00 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84517-mbia-ambac-and-gics-the-other-view?source=feed#comment-202762 202762 Fri, 11 Jul 2008 06:12:11 -0400
static.seekingalpha.co...
www.mbia.com/investor/...
www.mbia.com/investor/...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84354-the-insanity-of-holding-mbia-parent-company-credit-default-swaps?source=feed#comment-202240 202240 Thu, 10 Jul 2008 11:19:59 -0400
In respect to AMBAC and MBIA, they need to keep and save all the cash possible including stop paying dividends, deleverage AGGRESSIVELY from all their risky liabilities specially those CDS-CDO's, RMBS-ABS of uncertain value to remediate their book values in all their subsidiaries, once their book values are sound they need to reinstate their triple A rating again to write new low risk public bond insurance business. They can also open or extend a line of credit to make sure to continue operations, dissipate doubts and prevent further downgrades from rating agencies.

They are already doing these, so it will take some time to deleverage their books from uncertainties and rewrite new business again. This coming back will be the best advertisement to recruit new clients.

seekingalpha.com/artic...

seekingalpha.com/artic...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84354-the-insanity-of-holding-mbia-parent-company-credit-default-swaps?source=feed#comment-202074 202074 Thu, 10 Jul 2008 08:34:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-198390 198390 Fri, 04 Jul 2008 04:25:07 -0400
John]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-197458 197458 Wed, 02 Jul 2008 15:27:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-196697 196697 Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:07:41 -0400
*I am not authorized to speak for the bank, and this posting is my own personal opinion and experience and in no way reflects that of 5/3 or any of its entities.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-196243 196243 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 20:13:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-196054 196054 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 13:53:30 -0400 good choice!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-196010 196010 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 13:08:51 -0400 My issues should cause you to consider whether FITB has been credible in its public pronouncements and actions and I for one believe they have been highly misleading. As is so often the case, the longer term shareholders get treated the worst of all -- declining value of the stock, reduced dividend, diluted future earnings.
I hope the two class action suits against FITB and Kevin Kabat, filed just in the past week or so, will be HIGHLY successful.
mongoose
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195869 195869 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 10:35:26 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195804 195804 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 09:33:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195539 195539 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 21:14:45 -0400
My God, don't do this!!! The markets will finish their declines in December of 2008. DO NOT buy until then, and especially DO NOT BUY FINANCIALS. We are no where near the bottom, and as an assignment, suggest you review what happened in 1973-74, the biggest bear market since the Great Depression. This market is following that analog to a 'T'. That market decline ended on Dec. 26, 1974, and this one will likely come to an end in December 2008. Please don't even think about buying until then.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195478 195478 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 19:09:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195438 195438 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 17:44:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195436 195436 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 17:40:35 -0400
Thanks! Jason ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195421 195421 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 17:08:41 -0400
Here is something you should consider when thinking about buying into the banking sector.

Many banks aren't lending money and on top of that consumers aren't borrowing. So how will banks make any money over the coming years?

That should definitely be taken into consideration when discussing financials, along with this: How long will this last? The Fed is pumping money into the economy, but lending institutions fear the highly leveraged shape of the public. And rightly so. When, how, and what may change that?

No matter though, because in my view there is no hope in the long run to save our nation from its steady and definite decline, i.e, our nation as we've known it.

For as long as so many people want to keep leftists in power so that they can create more government to combat the problems and disasters that their government programs and legislation caused in the first place, we are eventually doomed economically.

And government bureaucrats do this over and over, but always wiggle out of what they've done by blaming private industry (Big Oil, Big Pharma, and the like, and of course a bogeyman such as Bush or Cheney or Rove), and the people for what they have brought about.

With the help of the Marxist media, the people then yell for the government to do even more, thus causing problems that will have to be faced in the future—and that means more government rules, regulation, and legislation that brainwashed parrots scream for.

And clearly, it doesn't help sending our forces around the world to carry out other nation's wars for them. You can't blame Bush for all of this either. The Dumborats in Congress voted to go get the Toy Tiger in Iraq (except for the members of the Black Caucus, which only votes for bills to punish American businesses and individuals); and Bush didn't put troops and bases in over 140 nations around the world. They were there when he took office.

Meanwhile, America has an invasion from the south, crashing stock markets and the dollar, along with hyper-inflation, declining property values, exploding crime (see Sean Hannity's America from Sunday, June 22, `08), and energy and food prices nearly equalling Germany's in the 1920s.

Enjoy the ride, especially those of you who're calling for even more leftists to take over so they can create more government to punish businesses and anyone else who is succeeding in the private sector.

Parasites engender more parasites of different types, because when one begins its feeding, it weakens the host, which invites even more suckers to the party. The host soon withers to nothing. Consider the American people the host. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195247 195247 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 12:43:13 -0400
Plus there is a lot of competition from private lendors and peer-to-peer lending sources..... I'd put my money into the private sector not the stock market. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195243 195243 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 12:38:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83066-fifth-third-bank-drink-deeply-of-the-poison?source=feed#comment-195200 195200 Sun, 29 Jun 2008 11:52:58 -0400