John Jansen

John Jansen
Contributor since: 2008
If you think that a bear market is on the horizon why not put your money into cash. The dividends on the stocks mentioned in the article will not cover your mark to market losses if we really are in recession.
Tony,
i do not know how they rank those who comment buy you are number one in my book
maybe we can be a rapping bond duo!!!
Well done.
JJJ
I cant do rhymes but I can string consonants together well!!!
Thank you
I flunked proof reading. It is actually "rentier" class.
Basically those who earn a living by clipping coupons from bonds.
Spreads will widen. Liquidity drove spreads tighter. The withdrawal of liquidity will widen spreads.
On Nov 04 11:51 AM Steve in TN wrote:
> When the FED does start to raise interest rates, I wonder how corporate
> bonds will fare in relation to treasuries?
Great line. Thanks.
JJJ
On Nov 04 09:02 AM Tony Petroski wrote:
> "(I also apologize for what could be the longest sentence in the
> storied history of Across the Curve dot com.)"
>
> Speaking of long sentences, I'm reminded of Andre Charriet who was
> sentenced in the French court.
>
> Judge: (In French) "For the crime of murder I sentence you to life
> in prison."
>
> M. Charriet: "Your honor. In France, how long is life in prison?"
>
>
> (M. Charriet did 18 years and was paroled).
I cant think of anyone who could deliver a stirring oration.
Maybe the current President. Whatever you think of his politics he makes a helluva speech.
On Oct 23 10:40 AM Tony Petroski wrote:
> Where else can you get bond talk like this?
>
> From the article:
>
> " If the unemployment rate is at or near double digit levels, any
> move to raise rates would bring forth Barney Frank and those of his
> ilk with a 21st century version of the William Jennings Bryan “Cross
> of Gold” speech. It would give the faux populists of our time an
> opportunity to attack the Federal Reserve and a golden opportunity
> to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve and suggest
> more political involvement in the setting of interest rate policy."
>
>
> Mr. Jensen. I would pay a large sum to be in the stadium during
> the modern "Cross of Gold" speech. We know Barney Frand won't be
> delivering it. Who?

Much better. I had a case of writer's block, I guess.
On Oct 19 05:12 PM Tony Petroski wrote:
> "...the front end of the curve languishing as the long end lifted
> lightly?"

The next line says:
The opposite outcome unfolded today as yields fell and the curve flattened
On Oct 16 06:18 PM User 498839 wrote:
> I am a rookie here, so help me out.
>
> I think that theme in the capital markets today was risk reduction
> and the outcome in the Treasury market reflects that. Over the course
> of this week bond yields rose and the yield curve steepened.
>
> If yields rose, that means prices fell, so people sold off bonds.
> How does that equate to risk reduction? Shouldn't that be embracing
> risk by pulling out of these safe securities?
>
> thanks!
Tony,
I surrender my title as alliteration champion to you.
JJJ
On Oct 09 09:49 AM Tony Petroski wrote:
> One of the salient points to make here is that he began his discussion
> of exit strategies by noting that he and his colleagues believe that
> accommodative polices will be warranted for an extended period.<br/>
>
> Here is the exact quote:
>
> “My colleagues at the Federal Reserve and I believe that accommodative
> policies will likely be warranted for an extended period.”
>
> Very droll Mr. Jansen.
>
> This would have been better: "Chairman Bernanke presented pedestrian
> and pedantic proposals pending the pricing pens producing a pop."
thank you.
whidbey,
Thank you.
JJJ
Tony,
I type it on WordPress and that came from the spell check.
"Then, in 1978, the Supreme Court passed a law stating that banks could charge their cardholders any rate allowed in the bank's home state"
The Supreme Court adjudicates(last time I checked) and the Congress legislates.
Macro man,
In the curve steepener you are long the short end of the Treasury curve and short the back end.
For example a popular trade with the 10 year about to be auctioned is to be long the 2 year note and short the 10 year.
Now is the trade is unwound traders are selling their longs (2s) and buying back their shorts (10s).
That trade has moved 30 basis points in favor of the 10 year since Friday morning (pre labor)
whidbey.........
I like "attenuated". Very nice.
JJJ
I think we crossed paths at the Open Market Desk in 1981. I think you were there or had just left. And I always remember that the piece which you co authored with Paul Meeks was the single best expositon on Desk operating procedure in the post October 1979 world.
On Jun 05 04:08 PM Charles Lieberman wrote:
> All data are not equal. Some are more important than other. The
> hours worked data is very rough and rounded. So, the fall in hours
> worked could have been from 33.051 to 33.049. And it can easily
> reverse next month and I'd bet that reverses very soon. (The manufacturing
> hours data is just more detail, since that is one of the components
> in the total hours worked.) So Deutsch Bank's criticism is actually
> quite superficial.
>
> What is important is that the pace of job loss has slowed significantly.
> If you recall, economists pointed out a month ago that the actual
> job loss was even greater than reported because of the early hiring
> by the government to conduct the census. So, a worse number was
> expected this month, because another round of census worker hiring
> is not scheduled for several months. So I take the actual report
> of 345,000 job losses as indicating a material slowdown in the pace
> of decline, particularly since prior data was also revised upwards.
> Just as supertankers don't turn on a dime, neither does an economy
> as large and complex as our's. But, this data is another bright
> green shoot that suggests that turnaround process is now underway.
>
>
> If you really disagree, you can play your judgment very easily by
> buying December 2009 eurodollar futures, which got hammered over
> the now increased risk the Fed might raise rates before the end of
> the year. Two-year and 10-year Treasuries notes also got hammered.
Butterfly trade explained
acrossthecurve.com/?p=923
Markit,
We would have depression before rates hit 10 percent. The current rate levels will curtail economic activity and are sowing the seeds for a short circuiting of the recovery (putative as it may be).
Bull,
No auction today. The Fed bought the securities in a buyback.
Rather than balls try "testicular appendages" next time. Everyone will think you are the late Bill Buckley reincarnated!!
Great line!!
tuna,
i am jargon heavy at times and apologize. Virtually all corporate bonds are quoted on a spread to a Treasury bond. On the Dow Chemical bond the 7.60 is the coupon interest which it pays . The 540 and the 515 are spreads to the benchmark 5 year Treasury. The wider the spread the cheaper the bond.
Five year Treasury closed the day at 2.40 ish yield. At T+ 540 the Dow yields 240 (the Treasury yield) + 540 (spread above the Treasury = 7.80.
At a spread of 515 it would yield just 7.55.
Hope that helps
JJJ
What is mom's track record?
Thanks for including me in your list.
John Jansen
acrossthecurve.com
If you visit my website,I update all day long.
i think they are quite a distance away myself but I was surprised at the number of players who wanted to have that conversation llast week.
Yes. From its low yield the 10 year note yield has increased over 100 basis points. The market has priced in quite a bit of supply concession.
If you tell me the economy will quickly turn sunny,I would sing a different tune. For now I am happy to own them.
Canned pawn,
are u chess player?
Larry,
I think they are only " unsafe" in the sense that they might be entering a patch where they underperform Treasuries.
They have just passed through a period of outperformance and some of those trades are being unwound.
I have no problem with the ability of the recent issuers to pay off at maturity.