John Jansen

The Coming Economic Collapse, Part 1

"Then, in 1978, the Supreme Court passed a law stating that banks could charge their cardholders any rate allowed in the bank's home state"

The Supreme Court adjudicates(last time I checked) and the Congress legislates.

Bond Expert: Monday Wrap

Macro man,

In the curve steepener you are long the short end of the Treasury curve and short the back end.

For example a popular trade with the 10 year about to be auctioned is to be long the 2 year note and short the 10 year.
Now is the trade is unwound traders are selling their longs (2s) and buying back their shorts (10s).

That trade has moved 30 basis points in favor of the 10 year since Friday morning (pre labor)

Bond Expert: Monday Outlook

whidbey.........

I like "attenuated". Very nice.

JJJ

Unemployment Data Less Upbeat than It Appears - Deutsche Bank

I think we crossed paths at the Open Market Desk in 1981. I think you were there or had just left. And I always remember that the piece which you co authored with Paul Meeks was the single best expositon on Desk operating procedure in the post October 1979 world.


On Jun 05 04:08 PM Charles Lieberman wrote:

> All data are not equal. Some are more important than other. The
> hours worked data is very rough and rounded. So, the fall in hours
> worked could have been from 33.051 to 33.049. And it can easily
> reverse next month and I'd bet that reverses very soon. (The manufacturing
> hours data is just more detail, since that is one of the components
> in the total hours worked.) So Deutsch Bank's criticism is actually
> quite superficial.
>
> What is important is that the pace of job loss has slowed significantly.
> If you recall, economists pointed out a month ago that the actual
> job loss was even greater than reported because of the early hiring
> by the government to conduct the census. So, a worse number was
> expected this month, because another round of census worker hiring
> is not scheduled for several months. So I take the actual report
> of 345,000 job losses as indicating a material slowdown in the pace
> of decline, particularly since prior data was also revised upwards.
> Just as supertankers don't turn on a dime, neither does an economy
> as large and complex as our's. But, this data is another bright
> green shoot that suggests that turnaround process is now underway.
>
>
> If you really disagree, you can play your judgment very easily by
> buying December 2009 eurodollar futures, which got hammered over
> the now increased risk the Fed might raise rates before the end of
> the year. Two-year and 10-year Treasuries notes also got hammered.

Bond Expert: Friday Wrap

Butterfly trade explained

acrossthecurve.com/?p=923

Mortgage Market: 'Utter Chaos'

Markit,

We would have depression before rates hit 10 percent. The current rate levels will curtail economic activity and are sowing the seeds for a short circuiting of the recovery (putative as it may be).

Bond Expert Wednesday Outlook: Epiphany

Bull,

No auction today. The Fed bought the securities in a buyback.

Bernanke on Recovery vs. Growth

Rather than balls try "testicular appendages" next time. Everyone will think you are the late Bill Buckley reincarnated!!

Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook

Great line!!

Bond Expert: Wednesday Wrap

tuna,

i am jargon heavy at times and apologize. Virtually all corporate bonds are quoted on a spread to a Treasury bond. On the Dow Chemical bond the 7.60 is the coupon interest which it pays . The 540 and the 515 are spreads to the benchmark 5 year Treasury. The wider the spread the cheaper the bond.

Five year Treasury closed the day at 2.40 ish yield. At T+ 540 the Dow yields 240 (the Treasury yield) + 540 (spread above the Treasury = 7.80.

At a spread of 515 it would yield just 7.55.

Hope that helps

JJJ

Bond Expert Tuesday Wrap: Something's Afoot

What is mom's track record?

My Favorite Financial Blogs

Thanks for including me in your list.

John Jansen
acrossthecurve.com

Bond Expert: Monday Outlook

If you visit my website,I update all day long.

Bond Expert: Monday Outlook

i think they are quite a distance away myself but I was surprised at the number of players who wanted to have that conversation llast week.

Bond Expert: Thursday Outlook

Yes. From its low yield the 10 year note yield has increased over 100 basis points. The market has priced in quite a bit of supply concession.

If you tell me the economy will quickly turn sunny,I would sing a different tune. For now I am happy to own them.