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John Jansen

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  • Bond Expert: Thursday Outlook [View article]
    Yes. From its low yield the 10 year note yield has increased over 100 basis points. The market has priced in quite a bit of supply concession.

    If you tell me the economy will quickly turn sunny,I would sing a different tune. For now I am happy to own them.
    May 14 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Tuesday Wrap [View article]
    Canned pawn,

    are u chess player?


    I think they are only " unsafe" in the sense that they might be entering a patch where they underperform Treasuries.

    They have just passed through a period of outperformance and some of those trades are being unwound.

    I have no problem with the ability of the recent issuers to pay off at maturity.
    May 12 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Thursday Wrap [View article]
    I am looking for a spot to get long for a trade. The Treasury is on hiatus for two weeks so that supply demand dynamic favors owning bonds at these levels.
    May 7 08:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Friday Outlook [View article]
    Dealer balance sheets. Dealers prepare for the auctions by "setting" up for them.

    A popular strategy is to sell that which the Treasury is selling next.

    Consequently, dealers groups are selling 10s and 30s which the treasury is selling next week and anchoring those sales with 2 year notes.

    On Wednesday the spread between the 2year note and the 10 year note was 208 basis points ( that was in the moments immediately preceding the FOMC announcement). As I write this on Friday morning the spread is 226 basis points. That is a move of 18 basis points.

    In round numbers one basis point on a 10 year note is $750 per million bonds. In this case you made 18 basis points which is about $13 500 permillion. A dealer might easily do 100 million of this trade. That is about $ 1 350 000 in profit in less than 48 hours on a trade with no duration risk.

    The 2year/30 year spread has also moved 18 basis points. The dollar value of a basis point on a 30 year bond is much larger than on a 10 year note so there are significantly greater profits in that trade.

    May 1 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Thursday Outlook [View article]

    if you have a suggestion, I might hail a cab and travel across town!!
    Apr 30 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Thursday Wrap [View article]
    I think my rating is in the 1330s. I play every Monday night at a local chess club!!

    On Apr 23 07:10 PM cannedpawn8 wrote:

    > Interesting report John, how's your chess?
    Apr 26 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Friday Wrap [View article]

    In the history of Treasury trading the widest spread ever recorded on the 2year/30 year spread is 370 basis points. That was back in 1992.

    So your call for a 500 basis point spread between 5 year and 10 year points on the curve is interesting and audacious.

    Against that background where will the 2 year note and the 30 year bond trade?


    On Apr 25 02:05 PM MarvinMBA wrote:

    > Theres no free lunch for the Treasury and they will have to pay up
    > eventually. I'm looking for 5 % 5 years and 10 % ten years as
    > the bubble in treasuries implodes. The explosion in the money supply
    > is yet to hit due to slow velocity but when it does watch out below...MarvinMBA
    Apr 26 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Tuesday Wrap [View article]
    Because the Treasury is flooding the market with 5 year, 7 year and 10 year paper. Today they are issuing $32 billion 5 year notes. Tomorrow they issue $22 billion 7 year notes and they will announce on March 5 a sale of probably $20 billion 10 year notes.Annualize that and you get one very large chunk of duration.

    The Treasury has moved to selling bonds twice each quarter and I think it will move to monthly bonds in May. I believe the Bond in the last refunding (FEB) was a $15 billion issue. Even if we allow the debt managers the latitude to increase the size to $20 billion that amount of issuance is overwhelmed on a duration basis by the size of the issuance in the belly of the Treasury curve.

    I hope that helps.
    Feb 25 07:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert Friday Outlook: Treasury's Huge Appetite [View article]
    The International Herald Tribune article on Hilary Clinton (which I linked to at described Ms.Clinton as "pleading" which I believe is an unlikely pose for her!!!
    Feb 22 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Expert: Monday Outlook [View article]
    I think that you are rather rude and, I dare say, rather ignorant with your comment about little yellow people. Please do me a favor and refrain from commenting about anything I write as I do not wish to be associated with a clown.
    Dec 9 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Presidential Speech, in Context [View article]
    The Mets lost the game in extra innings.
    Sep 25 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armageddon? Maybe Next Week. [View article]
    GKM.......My comments on the market in this piece are very short term. My horizon is the next week or maybe a touch longer. I am not saying anything about what happens in two weeks or 2 years.
    Aug 22 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment