John Lazerow

Research in Motion Downgraded by Longtime Bull

The smartphone sector of the global mobile phone market is in a secular growth mode for the next few years. There will be plenty of business for both RIM and Apple to be successful as individuals have different tastes. To say one will be dead and one will win is arrogant and blind to the facts. Many folks will buy the iPhone for its merits and many people will buy the Blackberry for its merits. It's good to have choice.

The finance layoffs affect RIM much less than they used to as they have expanded their footprint to over 110 countries and 350 networks or so (adding 3 in the last week or so). There is also the consumer push that is helping them.

The stock performance for both in 2008 (AAPL down 18%, RIMM down 23%) is more reflective of the overall markets and not fundamentals of these companies which both continue to be strong. These stocks were spectacular in 2007 and it makes sense that they would come down given the macro issues out there. A buyer of Apple and RIM today will be happy in a few years.

Zacks Says Hold RIMM, But Raises Price Target

This guy's forward PE is way off - I show mean first call consensus earnings of $3.39 for 2009 fiscal. That equals 34x. The company grew 100% last quarter YOY and if they hit 2009 numbers, it will be 50% growth over 2008 (vs. mean estimates of $2.24).

The rich valuation of the shares reflect the high growth prospects yet the shares still trade at a discount to forward growth (forward PE of 34x vs. earnings growth FY08 to FY09 of about 50% = .70 PEG). Doesn't look too bad to me...even looks cheap if you believe the "smart" phone growth story over the next few years.

Blinded by Flash: RIM's Excellent Results, All Eyes on Apple

This response clearly demonstrates why you have no understanding of RIM's value proposition and continued discussion is fruitless. I'll no longer post responses to your dribble. By the way, I am a long term holder of both Apple and RIM and both will succeed in selling a ton of smartphones over the next few years. It will be interesting to see which stock performs better. Good luck.

Blinded by Flash: RIM's Excellent Results, All Eyes on Apple

"RIMM will have to differentiate by price-- how could it be otherwise?" What a dumb comment - another in a long string of anti-RIM commentary from this guy. How about differentiating by offering true push email/data and being the only "quality of service" provider for data delivery. There is no other service offering that matches what RIM has - how can you not see that?

I love my iPhone, I love my Blackberry. But when I switch from the BB to the iPhone, the data experience doesn't match. Yes, I get an awesome web browser, sweet media player, and cool interface but I don't get instant emails delivered. Anyone who want core communication first and not media will stay with BB.

Regardless, to say one will be dead and the other will prosper is simply ignorant. What the article is really saying, and you should listen Mr. Barta, is that the entire market for all smartphones is growing dramatically. That means there is plenty of business to go around and a number of players can be successful in such a high unit volume market.

Research In Motion's iBerry?

For this comment to be valid, you are saying that other companies will replicate what RIM has in their service offering and that every phone will have secure, instant push email and data services. That's their huge competitive advantage, it has nothing to do with an open or closed OS. RIM controls the device presence on the network for data, i.e. when your BB's pin number shows up on any BB enabled cellular network in the world, RIM recognizes this and starts delivering data and knows what has and hasn't been delivered.

Under any other scenario whether it be Android, Windows Mobile, or any other configuration, you simply have the device and the server somewhere on the internet and NO middleman to guarantee delivery. This will be RIM's enduring value proposition whether they stick with selling their own devices or shift to a service oriented company getting BB clients on all devices.

In re the stock's decline, it has been a good trade for you, congrats. I have been looking to buy more, but feel $100-110 is the right value for the company today, certainly not $50 or $60. And we'll get more data points in a few weeks when they report.

Tom Brown’s School Days

is this a joke? This guy obviously has a personal vendetta against Tom Brown. The first quote doesn't make sense - Tom Brown was and still is correct Citi can't do large deals. An investment in the firm is not a "deal". And then the last two are just piling on.

Come on seekingalpha - you can better than this!

Research In Motion's iBerry?

Keep believing this, and keep shorting the stock. You can't be "happier every day" after today's close over $121. The high was around $135, so at this point, the best you could be up is 10% on the remaining position. Fun stock to trade as it is volatile, but the long term story is very much intact.

Verizon opening their network has nothing to do with RIM's consumer push. This "open" platform paradigm just doesn't matter to RIM. Ask the average Joe on the street and they want something that simply works, not an open platform that they can tweak. Only the tech geeks want to tweak and that's a small percentage of the potential user base.

I find it interesting you have lowered your price on RIM from $60 to $50 since last week even though they will sell into both Russia and China next year. Even without these two countries, RIM's business is an inch deep and and a mile wide. What I mean is that they are on 325 networks in 110 countries - talk about a global growth story - and wait until they get 2 inches deep. It's an aspirational product to many folks because of the strong word of mouth and high user satisfaction.

In a backdrop of 30% unit growth each year for the next few years, the 120 million annual smartphones sold today will be 400-500 million units in 5 years. That's the kind of industry I want to invest in, especially a leading value add company. RIM adds value to the carrier with the upsell on the required data plan and value to the user with reliable, secure, instant email.

This article is a joke. Todd's articles usually are. This is just regurgitation of rumors flying around the internet.

Is RIMM's Unite Platform Really “The Holy Grail”?

Hayward, you continue to dislike this stock and be absolutely wrong about it. Have you looked at their growth rates and compared that to their current PE multiple? I bet not. First call consensus 2007 and 2008 EPS are $2.17 and $3.26, or 50% growth!!! The current multiple to 2007 is 51x earnings and 34x 2008 earnings. Doesn't look over priced to me - actually looks about right.

Now how do I know they'll hit those numbers (even though I think they'll be higher)? Let's suppose I told you there was an industry that would see units shipments grow by 4-5x over the next five years. Then let's suppose that one of the companies in that industry has a better value proposition than the other players. Would you be interested? Of course you would. Well, this is exactly where RIM is today in the context of the global smartphone business. You should get in board.

Also, you have no idea how the home server will work. I don't know either, but I would bet it doesn't not need a constant connection to the home computer, but rather only a connection from the handheld to RIM's servers which would ostensibly sync up with the home server when prompted. All the sharing could be done through RIM's existing infrastructure.

To compare this to .Mac is misguided. The purpose of .mac is not to "share", it's to sync up data stores on multiple computers so that a user has the same info on their office and home computer for instance. I don't know anyone who uses .mac for that purpose.

Last, their marketing is great (I assume you were being sarcastic). Just create a great product that people actually like using because it is extremely reliable and just works (kind of like your Mac) and they will evangelize and tell their friends. That's the absolute BEST marketing a company could have and it's FREE!!!

So, if you believe this stock will have a 60 handle on it next summer, then this is a great short - I'll lend you my shares.

A Strong Argument for Shorting RIM

sorry for the repeats - i guess i just wanted to make my point.

A Strong Argument for Shorting RIM

I have been betting on RIMM having good quarters for the last year - and it has paid me a 4 bagger. The company IS growing (actually faster than Apple) and will continue to do so. Both Apple AND RIM will benefit massively from the growth of smartphone adoption. Today 120 mln annual smartphones are sold and I bet in 5 years about 500 mln smartphones will be sold annually. Enough business for all the value added players to go around. This is the thesis that you seem to ignore when looking at the smartphone business by saying RIM is going to be dead.

They even both use the same business model, although Apple does it better because they don't even offer a service, they just get paid each month from the carrier - truly brilliant. RIM's value add service offering is data delivery manifesting itself currently as push email. Now, before you say, well anyone can do push email, consider the fact that RIM controls the device presence on the network which allows them to offer many services that Apple will never offer until they have their own network peering into the cellular networks. Currently RIM is peering into about 325 networks in 120 countries and any time your device shows up on any network on any technology on any carrier, you start getting data delivered. There are real technical reasons their solution is inherently better than the iPhone for core communications. For the wow factor though, iPhone is the king.

I guess my point is that if took the time to study RIM as much as you ostensibly study and follow Apple, you could make even more money. I own both, have for a while, and will for a while. They BOTH will succeed. Do yourself a favor and get on board with RIM today.

The article above cites some inaccuracies - the Value Line EPS are out of date for 2008 (year ends 2/28/08) - I see mean first call consensus at $2.17, but who cares about the past. They'll put up at least $3.50 in 2009 (ending 2/28/09). Down 30% from a ridiculous high, trading at roughly a 31 forward multiple and actually growing faster, it's a great buy around $110. At least just buy a few shares to track it.

By the way, I only call out ridiculous and emotional statements on these boards, and the notion that RIM is dying is one of those, especially in the context of all your pro-Apple comments I have seen.

A Strong Argument for Shorting RIM

I have been betting on RIMM having good quarters for the last year - and it has paid me a 4 bagger. The company IS growing (actually faster than Apple) and will continue to do so. Both Apple AND RIM will benefit massively from the growth of smartphone adoption. Today 120 mln annual smartphones are sold and I bet in 5 years about 500 mln smartphones will be sold annually. Enough business for all the value added players to go around. This is the thesis that you seem to ignore when looking at the smartphone business by saying RIM is going to be dead.

They even both use the same business model, although Apple does it better because they don't even offer a service, they just get paid each month from the carrier - truly brilliant. RIM's value add service offering is data delivery manifesting itself currently as push email. Now, before you say, well anyone can do push email, consider the fact that RIM controls the device presence on the network which allows them to offer many services that Apple will never offer until they have their own network peering into the cellular networks. Currently RIM is peering into about 325 networks in 120 countries and any time your device shows up on any network on any technology on any carrier, you start getting data delivered. There are real technical reasons their solution is inherently better than the iPhone for core communications. For the wow factor though, iPhone is the king.

I guess my point is that if took the time to study RIM as much as you ostensibly study and follow Apple, you could make even more money. I own both, have for a while, and will for a while. They BOTH will succeed. Do yourself a favor and get on board with RIM today.

The article above cites some inaccuracies - the Value Line EPS are out of date for 2008 (year ends 2/28/08) - I see mean first call consensus at $2.17, but who cares about the past. They'll put up at least $3.50 in 2009 (ending 2/28/09). Down 30% from a ridiculous high, trading at roughly a 31 forward multiple and actually growing faster, it's a great buy around $110. At least just buy a few shares to track it.

By the way, I only call out ridiculous and emotional statements on these boards, and the notion that RIM is dying is one of those, especially in the context of all your pro-Apple comments I have seen.

A Strong Argument for Shorting RIM

I have been betting on RIMM having good quarters for the last year - and it has paid me a 4 bagger. The company IS growing (actually faster than Apple) and will continue to do so. Both Apple AND RIM will benefit massively from the growth of smartphone adoption. Today 120 mln annual smartphones are sold and I bet in 5 years about 500 mln smartphones will be sold annually. Enough business for all the value added players to go around. This is the thesis that you seem to ignore when looking at the smartphone business by saying RIM is going to be dead.

They even both use the same business model, although Apple does it better because they don't even offer a service, they just get paid each month from the carrier - truly brilliant. RIM's value add service offering is data delivery manifesting itself currently as push email. Now, before you say, well anyone can do push email, consider the fact that RIM controls the device presence on the network which allows them to offer many services that Apple will never offer until they have their own network peering into the cellular networks. Currently RIM is peering into about 325 networks in 120 countries and any time your device shows up on any network on any technology on any carrier, you start getting data delivered. There are real technical reasons their solution is inherently better than the iPhone for core communications. For the wow factor though, iPhone is the king.

I guess my point is that if took the time to study RIM as much as you ostensibly study and follow Apple, you could make even more money. I own both, have for a while, and will for a while. They BOTH will succeed. Do yourself a favor and get on board with RIM today.

The article above cites some inaccuracies - the Value Line EPS are out of date for 2008 (year ends 2/28/08) - I see mean first call consensus at $2.17, but who cares about the past. They'll put up at least $3.50 in 2009 (ending 2/28/09). Down 30% from a ridiculous high, trading at roughly a 31 forward multiple and actually growing faster, it's a great buy around $110. At least just buy a few shares to track it.

By the way, I only call out ridiculous and emotional statements on these boards, and the notion that RIM is dying is one of those, especially in the context of all your pro-Apple comments I have seen.

A Strong Argument for Shorting RIM

I have been betting on RIMM having good quarters for the last year - and it has paid me a 4 bagger. The company IS growing (actually faster than Apple) and will continue to do so. Both Apple AND RIM will benefit massively from the growth of smartphone adoption. Today 120 mln annual smartphones are sold and I bet in 5 years about 500 mln smartphones will be sold annually. Enough business for all the value added players to go around. This is the thesis that you seem to ignore when looking at the smartphone business by saying RIM is going to be dead.

They even both use the same business model, although Apple does it better because they don't even offer a service, they just get paid each month from the carrier - truly brilliant. RIM's value add service offering is data delivery manifesting itself currently as push email. Now, before you say, well anyone can do push email, consider the fact that RIM controls the device presence on the network which allows them to offer many services that Apple will never offer until they have their own network peering into the cellular networks. Currently RIM is peering into about 325 networks in 120 countries and any time your device shows up on any network on any technology on any carrier, you start getting data delivered. There are real technical reasons their solution is inherently better than the iPhone for core communications. For the wow factor though, iPhone is the king.

I guess my point is that if took the time to study RIM as much as you ostensibly study and follow Apple, you could make even more money. I own both, have for a while, and will for a while. They BOTH will succeed. Do yourself a favor and get on board with RIM today.

The article above cites some inaccuracies - the Value Line EPS are out of date for 2008 (year ends 2/28/08) - I see mean first call consensus at $2.17, but who cares about the past. They'll put up at least $3.50 in 2009 (ending 2/28/09). Down 30% from a ridiculous high, trading at roughly a 31 forward multiple and actually growing faster, it's a great buy around $110. At least just buy a few shares to track it.

By the way, I only call out ridiculous and emotional statements on these boards, and the notion that RIM is dying is one of those, especially in the context of all your pro-Apple comments I have seen.

A Strong Argument for Shorting RIM

I have been betting on RIMM having good quarters for the last year - and it has paid me a 4 bagger. The company IS growing (actually faster than Apple) and will continue to do so. Both Apple AND RIM will benefit massively from the growth of smartphone adoption. Today 120 mln annual smartphones are sold and I bet in 5 years about 500 mln smartphones will be sold annually. Enough business for all the value added players to go around. This is the thesis that you seem to ignore when looking at the smartphone business by saying RIM is going to be dead.

They even both use the same business model, although Apple does it better because they don't even offer a service, they just get paid each month from the carrier - truly brilliant. RIM's value add service offering is data delivery manifesting itself currently as push email. Now, before you say, well anyone can do push email, consider the fact that RIM controls the device presence on the network which allows them to offer many services that Apple will never offer until they have their own network peering into the cellular networks. Currently RIM is peering into about 325 networks in 120 countries and any time your device shows up on any network on any technology on any carrier, you start getting data delivered. There are real technical reasons their solution is inherently better than the iPhone for core communications. For the wow factor though, iPhone is the king.

I guess my point is that if took the time to study RIM as much as you ostensibly study and follow Apple, you could make even more money. I own both, have for a while, and will for a while. They BOTH will succeed. Do yourself a favor and get on board with RIM today.

The article above cites some inaccuracies - the Value Line EPS are out of date for 2008 (year ends 2/28/08) - I see mean first call consensus at $2.17, but who cares about the past. They'll put up at least $3.50 in 2009 (ending 2/28/09). Down 30% from a ridiculous high, trading at roughly a 31 forward multiple and actually growing faster, it's a great buy around $110. At least just buy a few shares to track it.

By the way, I only call out ridiculous and emotional statements on these boards, and the notion that RIM is dying is one of those, especially in the context of all your pro-Apple comments I have seen.

A Strong Argument for Shorting RIM

Jesus, Thomas, do you ever stop? Expand your horizons, get out and do some research. Walk into any cellular store and ask questions. It might lead you to change your mind. This is what I do, and it has been, and continues to be very effective. Although Apple will make us a lot of money, RIMM will actually make you more in the next 5 years. And what empirical research leads you to your conclusion that RIMM isn't "likely to have a good Holiday."???