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John Leonard, CFA

 
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  • CCA Industries Is A Classic Value With A Catalyst Special Situation [View article]
    Yes - I confirm I do not own the stock. I'll make two points that should be crystal clear. First, if my disclosure says I do not own the stock then I do not own the stock - period.

    The second point I have made multiple times in response to questions on my other research. I am only repeating myself here to save readers the time of searching through my other comments (although feel free to do so) to find this. The point is this - the reason I do not own the stock is that my personal trading is on a completely different time frame and employs a completely different strategy than the research that is published on SA. As a result, you (you in general) should not mistake my not owning the stock as a sign of lack of conviction in the investment idea.
    Jun 24 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CCA Industries Is A Classic Value With A Catalyst Special Situation [View article]
    Re the weak nail and diet product categories, the impact at this point on overall results is not only significantly less than it was several years ago but it could even begin to stabilize following current efforts by management (e.g. sell down goods at distro centers, new products).

    Re the second point, introducing new products and launching new ad campaigns is not flushing money down the toilet - it is dealing with core problems head on. Customers are not wary of paying for products where there is value (which there is with CAW’s products).

    Re the expanded distro, there is less competition in terms of shelf space at smaller retailers so the chance of a customer buying a CAW product is higher.

    I disagree that the products are as cyclical as you imply. First of all, there are many different types of products at different price points aimed at different consumers. Second, the demand for many of the products is less cyclical than you might think (e.g. Bikini Zone, Sudden Change, Scar Zone)
    Jun 24 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CCA Industries Is A Classic Value With A Catalyst Special Situation [View article]
    To state the obvious, it's bullish that it was up 25% and on ~18x the average volume. The move also resulted in CAW putting out a press release saying it had "no comment on unusual market activity".

    The fact that the stock managed to hold on to a large portion of the gain is another bullish factor. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback over the next few days.
    Jun 24 06:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CCA Industries Is A Classic Value With A Catalyst Special Situation [View article]
    Because it's an attractive asymmetric opportunity. If you can make money trading it, that's all that matters.
    Jun 24 06:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    Yes - I am aware of this as it was specifically mentioned in the research. However, owning 48% is better than 0%.
    Jun 23 06:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    Just because BAGR is selling at a lower multiple does not mean GTIM is a bad investment. Moreover, EBITDA should continue to ramp up for GTIM, which would bring the multiple down to a more "attractive" level.

    Franchising a successful concept does not mean growth is limited. If this were true of GTIM, it would also have to be true of BAGR (e.g. 36 BWLD restaurants).
    Jun 22 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    I'm not as familiar with BAGR as GTIM, however, it appears they are similar in terms of niche (better burgers) and growth drivers (expansion). Owning both (rather than just one) might be a better way to reduce risk.
    Jun 22 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    I don't know of any other company-specific factors - this looks like more of a healthy and modest pullback within a larger uptrend.

    The 50 DMA right below the current price is a perfect place for existing investors to raise stops to (or to initiate a new entry).
    Jun 20 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    That is a great question. However, the investment thesis remains more constructive for GTIM than for other QSRs given its higher quality offerings that provide meaningful pricing power (see price increases in 2012 and 2013). There is more margin headroom given the higher price point for its beef menu items on an absolute basis as well as on a relative basis compared to more value-oriented competitors such as MCD and BKW.
    Jun 19 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    This happened. Bullish trend still intact.
    Jun 15 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xplore Technologies: The Other Tablet Manufacturer On The Verge Of Exponential Growth [View article]
    Their share of the rugged market is fairly low at this point as they only recently introduced the RangerX (and should be introducing the Windows version soon) however I expect it to quickly capture market share. The price point for the rugged tablet is ~$1,300 (stated in the research).

    Yes I expect XPLR to be successful with their rugged line - this is discussed in-depth in the research.

    Although there are many more third party reviews, here is one.

    http://bit.ly/TVMLBF
    Jun 14 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Xplore Technologies Be Honeywell's Next Target? [View article]
    Respectfully I disagree on both counts. BBRY just got out of the hardware business and is focusing more on the software side. GOOG is more concerned with getting Android on as many tablets as possible as opposed to selling tablets directly (I know they have the Nexus line).

    Just to summarize my previous thoughts, the most likely acquirer is someone who is already in the space and wants to grab market share (Panasonic) or a "desperate" computer hardware manufacturer such as HPQ or DELL that needs to play catch up. Outside of strategic buyers, a later stage VC fund would be a natural acquirer.
    Jun 14 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xplore Technologies: The Other Tablet Manufacturer On The Verge Of Exponential Growth [View article]
    A few points of clarification. First, XPLR specializes in tablets and not cell phones. Second, the environments where these tablets are taken by enterprise customers (not consumers) are brutal in terms of “wear and tear” so tablets do break down as previously discussed. Third, and again as previously discussed, the rugged market is exponentially larger than the ultra rugged market.
    Jun 12 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Xplore Technologies Be Honeywell's Next Target? [View article]
    Re the price action – Although there was a modest gain immediately following publication, just because there has not been a larger gain (it has only been about a week after all) does not mean the thesis is invalid or there is something wrong. Also, the pullback to support and resumption of the uptrend is very bullish.

    Re a potential takeover - My own $0.02 USD is that the CEO (who owns a large stake) will not and should not sell now as any takeover offer (even assuming a large premium) would be a fraction of the expected market cap several years from now.
    Jun 10 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Resolution Of Environmental Liability Is Catalyst For SL Industries [View article]
    SLI briefly exceeded price target last week although the subsequent consolidation is definitely a bullish sign that points towards another leg higher.
    Jun 7 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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