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John Leonard

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  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    I'm not as familiar with BAGR as GTIM, however, it appears they are similar in terms of niche (better burgers) and growth drivers (expansion). Owning both (rather than just one) might be a better way to reduce risk.
    Jun 22 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    I don't know of any other company-specific factors - this looks like more of a healthy and modest pullback within a larger uptrend.

    The 50 DMA right below the current price is a perfect place for existing investors to raise stops to (or to initiate a new entry).
    Jun 20 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    That is a great question. However, the investment thesis remains more constructive for GTIM than for other QSRs given its higher quality offerings that provide meaningful pricing power (see price increases in 2012 and 2013). There is more margin headroom given the higher price point for its beef menu items on an absolute basis as well as on a relative basis compared to more value-oriented competitors such as MCD and BKW.
    Jun 19 07:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Good Times Should Get Even Better For Good Times Restaurants [View article]
    This happened. Bullish trend still intact.
    Jun 15 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xplore Technologies: The Other Tablet Manufacturer On The Verge Of Exponential Growth [View article]
    Their share of the rugged market is fairly low at this point as they only recently introduced the RangerX (and should be introducing the Windows version soon) however I expect it to quickly capture market share. The price point for the rugged tablet is ~$1,300 (stated in the research).

    Yes I expect XPLR to be successful with their rugged line - this is discussed in-depth in the research.

    Although there are many more third party reviews, here is one.

    http://bit.ly/TVMLBF
    Jun 14 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Xplore Technologies Be Honeywell's Next Target? [View article]
    Respectfully I disagree on both counts. BBRY just got out of the hardware business and is focusing more on the software side. GOOG is more concerned with getting Android on as many tablets as possible as opposed to selling tablets directly (I know they have the Nexus line).

    Just to summarize my previous thoughts, the most likely acquirer is someone who is already in the space and wants to grab market share (Panasonic) or a "desperate" computer hardware manufacturer such as HPQ or DELL that needs to play catch up. Outside of strategic buyers, a later stage VC fund would be a natural acquirer.
    Jun 14 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xplore Technologies: The Other Tablet Manufacturer On The Verge Of Exponential Growth [View article]
    A few points of clarification. First, XPLR specializes in tablets and not cell phones. Second, the environments where these tablets are taken by enterprise customers (not consumers) are brutal in terms of “wear and tear” so tablets do break down as previously discussed. Third, and again as previously discussed, the rugged market is exponentially larger than the ultra rugged market.
    Jun 12 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Xplore Technologies Be Honeywell's Next Target? [View article]
    Re the price action – Although there was a modest gain immediately following publication, just because there has not been a larger gain (it has only been about a week after all) does not mean the thesis is invalid or there is something wrong. Also, the pullback to support and resumption of the uptrend is very bullish.

    Re a potential takeover - My own $0.02 USD is that the CEO (who owns a large stake) will not and should not sell now as any takeover offer (even assuming a large premium) would be a fraction of the expected market cap several years from now.
    Jun 10 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Resolution Of Environmental Liability Is Catalyst For SL Industries [View article]
    SLI briefly exceeded price target last week although the subsequent consolidation is definitely a bullish sign that points towards another leg higher.
    Jun 7 07:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unwarranted Conglomerate Discount And Potential For Significant Value Extraction At Nortek [View article]
    NTK less than 25 bps from price target. Although close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades - this should qualify as a third exception.
    Jun 7 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucara Diamond Is A Diamond In The Rough [View article]
    LUCRF up 120% since publication. Diamonds may be a girl's best friend but asymmetric trades are a trader's.
    Jun 7 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breeze-Eastern Is Undervalued Given Dominant Market Share, No Debt, And High Free Cash Flow [View article]
    BZC significantly exceeds target after gaining 50% over two days last week following a positive earnings report.
    Jun 7 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xplore Technologies: The Other Tablet Manufacturer On The Verge Of Exponential Growth [View article]
    The following point-by-point response should help clarify the situation:

    “Just an individual investor who has lost money based investing on the basis of well-written articles addressing industries I didn't know a whole lot about.”

    Investors can significantly reduce any losses (in general and for XPLR) by using stops and taking a smaller position size. In my opinion, the research on Seeking Alpha should merely be considered a starting point. For example, many HF/MF use Seeking Alpha for idea generation – they do not simply read a research report and immediately take a position. They do their own research and make their own decisions. Individual investors should do the same.

    “I do know about the vertical mobile computing market though, having spent a good part of a 10 year career there. It is an awful investment. Only invest money you are prepared to lose - because you will.”

    First, I’ll be the first to admit I am a generalist and do not have nearly the level of knowledge or experience as you in this particular industry. However, labeling the entire market as an “awful investment” is going too far. As I read it, there are no asymmetric opportunities available anywhere in the market – an inference I obviously disagree with. I do agree you should only invest money you are prepared to lose but perhaps “will” should be replaced with “can”.

    “Dynamics are simple. Consumer devices have intruded on the rugged space, making a niche market smaller. And so a detrimental cycle begins. Big consumer manufacturers have tremendous economies of scale, enabling them to incorporate better features more rapidly, at lower cost.”

    I specifically addressed how consumer grade devices cannot compete with tablets from XPLR. In the interests of saving readers (and myself) time, I will refer you back to the research rather than repeat myself. However I will add several points. Your assertion that this competition makes the “niche market smaller” is incorrect – the market for rugged tablets is growing as enterprise customers realize that consumer grade tablets do not cut it. The fact that competing tablets are offered at a “lower cost” is irrelevant if they break after six months.

    “Niche manufacturers fight over a tiny market, which doesn't offer enough potential revenue to sustain engineering cycles and incorporation of best in class features.”

    A “tiny market” is relative. To a company such as XPLR with a sub $50 million EV, even the ultra rugged tablet market (much less the rugged market) represents a significant market opportunity given that their tablets have multiple competitive advantages, which should result in high market share. Your assertion that these niche manufacturers cannot incorporate “best in class features” is incorrect. Again I refer you back to the research that specifically details their best in class features.

    “Because they can't generate volume, they need to sell at a higher price. The high prices + lagging feature sets further push customers to consider consumer devices, and the cycle continues.”

    XPLR can (and is) generate volume. Their tablets sell for a higher price because they are higher quality. As previously mentioned their features are leading not lagging. Enterprise customers would rather buy (which they are doing with increasing frequency) a more expensive tablet with superior features that will last for years rather than a cheaper tablet lacking critical functionality that will break after six months.

    “Because the small niche is so competitive, rugged vendors slash prices just to keep the lights on.”

    Their niche is growing exponentially with the move into the rugged tablet space from ultra rugged. There is actually less competition following the exit of two major competitors. XPLR is not being forced to slash prices – in fact in FY13 the average selling price rose 8%. Moreover, the significantly improved financial position (balance sheet, cash flow) means there are no worries re “keeping the lights on”.

    “Yes, there is a market for rugged devices, but it is shrinking daily.”

    As previously mentioned the market is growing.

    “A tablet with a rugged case may not be as elegantly integrated, but it will do the job in 80% of use cases.”

    Two points. First, almost by definition if it were that easy to simply buy an iPad and OtterBox case then XPLR would not exist. However it is not that simple. Not only is the XPLR tablet more rugged but it has more functionality than an iPad.

    “General Dynamics did not shut down Itronix because they couldn't compete...they shut down Itronix because they aren't stupid. They saw the writing on the wall.”

    I agree GD is not stupid, which is why they decided to exit rather than try to win an unwinnable war against XPLR.

    “Witness Motorola Solution's sale of their Enterprise (rugged) business to Zebra for less money then they paid for the business 8 years prior.”

    MSI sold this business in order to focus on its core business after seeing lower spending and delayed orders. However, this problem does not apply to XPLR as they are seeing higher spending and more orders (within the past year one customer alone purchased its entire inventory in one quarter).

    With all that being said please do not misconstrue my comments as an attack or criticism on you personally, especially the parts where I said your assertions were incorrect. I’ll just reiterate what I’ve said before in response to other negative comments – I do appreciate your comments as they raise the overall level of discussion. If you have any other comments or questions do not hesitate to post them here or send me a PM.
    Jun 6 08:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xplore Technologies: The Other Tablet Manufacturer On The Verge Of Exponential Growth [View article]
    There was a reverse split in September 2012 (1 for 400).
    Jun 6 07:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xplore Technologies: The Other Tablet Manufacturer On The Verge Of Exponential Growth [View article]
    Could you be more specific in terms of "a brief history of the stock price"? Do you mean from a fundamental or technical standpoint, specific catalysts for high and low points, etc.? While this was discussed in the research, I can provide some additional color if I have a better idea of what you're looking for.
    Jun 5 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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