John Li

John Li
Contributor since: 2012
In the Emilia trial, T-DM1 had excellent results in patients that failed first line therapy. Therefore, as a first line agent, T-DM1 should perform even better. The Marrianne trial will prove this but at this point, I believe most physicians already know this and may be using Kadcyla (T-DM1) as a first line agent in some patients that opt for Kadcyla instead of taking a chance on getting worse. Because of this, I suspect the next earning IMGN earning report will exceed most analysts estimates. Therefore IMGN may hit $20 very soon with an earnig surprise.
Most analysts have absolutely no clinical or technical background. Therefore, their projections should be taken with a grain of salt. I feel bad for Apple investors that jumped in high because they believed analysts' projection of $1000.
PCYC is a rare company. They have good financials and a good product. The problem with PCYC is that it is valued to perfection. Any stumbles along the way whether clinical or financial will result in a big price correction. PCYC can work for you or against you depending on what is your entry price. At the current price level, I would excercise extreme caution.
Please see link for insider ownership:
The devil is in the details. CEO Duggan never said he was never going to cash in his options. What he meant was for now he will not be cashing in his options. But when he does, you do not want to be the person that just jumped in.
FYI, Looks like institutions are accumulating. This have to be a good sign moving forward.
Ownership Summary
Ownership Analysis # of Holders Shares
Total Shares Held: 145 69,324,308
New Positions: 16 700,807
Increased Positions: 68 5,456,462
Decreased Positions: 52 3,742,927
Sold Out Positions: 9 91,438
Read more:
Currently, IMGN is trading below its 30,20,and 10 day moving averages. I don't see much "profit taking motives" to occur anytime soon because there are no "profits" currently left on the table. Since Jan 22nd, IMGN lost 7.7% of its value mainly due to investors' reaction to IMGN's recent earnings. With poor earnings expectations already factored in, the approval of T-DM1 can only be a positive catalyst for IMGN given that the approval of T-DM1 will validate IMGN's tap technology as something practically useful rather than thoeritical. Also given that Genentech's sales force is the best of the best, I would expect to see royalties rolling in faster for IMGN rather than later. An improved revenue stream for IMGN can also increase the value of IMGN considerably.
Who "baked" in the price? Analyst. What will IMGN bottom line be in 2013? Depends on T-DM1 sales in 2013 which analysts have yet to figure out and come to a consensus. SGEN may be good, but Immunogen's TAP technology will be going "live" this year with a widely expected FDA approval on Feb 26th. No analysts have yet showed me how they came up with the magical $14 target price. The price as of today is $14.39. I find it illogical for IMGN price to actually drop to $14 when approval is announced. If you have any reference as to how the analyst calculated $14 target price please provide me the link. Thank you.
The idea of antibody-drug conjugates is not proprietary, however, once the FDA approves T-DM1 on February 26th, this idea becomes a reality based on TAP technology owned by Immunogen. Having its TAP technology utilized in a billion dollar product like Herceptin that is being promoted by a power house company like Genentech will put a small company like Immunogen on the radar of big Biopharms looking to acquire.
Back in 2012, an Oppenheimer's analyst downgraded Immunogen to $10. For the most part of 2012, IMGN traded 40-50% above the analyst's prediction. Now for 2013, Oppenheimer's analyst's target price is $14. Even Oppenheimer analysts don't agree on a target price. The point of my article is that analysts are speculating just like everyone else. I have yet to see an explanation on how they derive their target price. Since Immunogen current price is already above the analyst's target price of $14, I find it difficult to believe on the day of T-DM1 approval announcement, Immunogen price will drop.
The price entry point will significantly determine the dividend percentage yield. The problem with most apple investors is determining what is the best price entry point. Given that apple earning announcement is just right around the corner and that we are getting conflicting views from analysts on a daily basis, apple price is behaving very erratically and difficult to read. When the price is erratic, not stable, and hitting fresh lows, investors' natural instinct is to panic leading to a downward trend. Until the dust settles, we will not see any significant support levels. Apple's earning report due Jan 23rd shoud give investors some guidance. Apple will be profitable for a long time, the real question is whether its profitability is in line with investors' expectations whether realistic or not.
I would proceed with Pharmacyclics with caution. Ibrutinib's safety and efficacy data is impressive, however, Ibrutinib is still currently in Phase III trial and the road ahead is long. PCYC's current price is reflecting the positive data presented at the ASH meeting. However, any setbacks in the Phase III trial or any financial issues with PCYC will have a big negative impact on PCYC's current pricing. I still remember last month when the CEO mentioned that PCYC employees can excercise their stock options to sell, although there were no massive employee selling, PCYC stock price plunged to into the $40's. Your last comment "overly optimistic valuation" is right on the mark. Proceed with caution.
The value of the platform you are referring to makes drug development for Aveo more efficient. Outside of this, I do not see any immediate commercial value. In fact, Aveo management has scaled back R&D and turned its full attention to commercializing Tivozanib. Aveo management has put so much stock into Tivozanib that they are currently recruiting and hiring medical science liaisons in anticipation of a 2013 commercial launch.
I am sorry to hear about your mom. Thank you for your input from a patient's family perspective.
When numerous analysts downgrade a stock based on financials alone, you'll be suprised the impact it has on the stock price. This goes the same for analyst hyping a stock without understanding the clinicals.
By the year 2015, Herceptin patent would have expired. Given that Roche owns Herceptin and T-DM1 (which is basically a newer version of Herceptin), Roche most likely will be aggressively promoting T-DM1 and letting Herceptin die on the vine. Gven this scenario, T-DM1 will be achieving sales much faster than what most analysts forecast. Also given that T-DM1 will most likely be priced higher than Herceptin, achieving a $5.6B sale where Herceptin left off is also possible.
In December 8-11th, look out for the Ibrutinib's study abstracts to be presented at the ASH (American Society of Hematology) meeting. The abstracts PCYC has submitted will further support the Ibrutinib's safety and efficacy for CLL indication and give investors confidence that PCYC is on track in bringing Ibrutinib to the market. Many reporters will be at the ASH meeting and will serve as a catalyst to bring PCYC stock price back up.
Actually, Ibrutinib is looking very promising. Phase II and Phase III clinical trial data shows Ibrutinib use for CLL and Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL)indication is very effective and safe. The multiple myeloma study which is being touted as having an issue is a preclinical/Discovery phase study. But keep in mind that the purpose of pre-clinical study is to find the best dose for an indication. For the multiple myeloma study, it did what it suppose to do. In addition to Ibrutinib, PCYC also has 2 compounds, Abexinostat and PCL-27483 that is coming along very nicely. Having so much good data to back up Ibrutinib, Ibrutinib will more likely get an FDA approval for CLL and MCL indication than not.
The only form of breast cancer that is non invasive and considered non-life threatening is DCIS (Ductal Carcinoma in Situ- Stage 0 breast cancer). All other forms of Breast Cancer is life threatening. Patients being treated with chemotherapy typically have breast cancer that is beyond surgical cure. The only question remains is how aggressive does the patient and physician willing to treat with chemotherapy. Typically, a more aggressive approach will have more side effects. In the case of T-DM1, an aggressive approach actually has fewer side effects. Cost is always an issue for physicians and patients. However, if a physician is transparent with a patient on discussing all available treatment options, it would be very difficult for a patient to refuse nor a physician to deny T-DM1 treatment given the survival data available.
This article shows that analyst like everyone else is speculating. At the end of the day, you should do your own due diligence.
IMGN true value should not be based on a single royalty deal with Roche. IMGN true value should be based on the potential of TDM-1 platform technology. A FDA approval of TDM-1/Herceptin is expected very soon by most analyst. Once FDA approves TDM-1, this validates the efficacy and safety of TDM-1 platform technology. With a validated TDM-1 platform, IMGN can form limitless potential partnerships, can negotiate much better royalty terms, and will secure a solid revenue stream since TDM-1 can be combined with limitless chemo agents. With the announcement of a FDA approval, most analyst cannot even begin to calculate the surge in IMGN pricing and how high it will go since IMGN revenue potential can be in the stratosphere. Today's IMGN price drop in response to the earning report is a knee jerk reaction to a myoptic valuation and understanding of TDM-1 potential. Based on currently available clinical data, I am betting that IMGN will get the approval and in this given scenario, I see a Roche's 3% deal as not a big issue and I see a buying opportunity on today's dip.
What this article did not take into account is that PCYC is ripe as a take over target. PCYC sitting on alot of cash, little or no debt, and has a product the whole world wants. So far insiders are not selling but accumulating PCYC shares. Once a take overis announced, PCYC will move well above $60. All those that sold just on "technicals" got burned.
I believe what is driving pcyc stock price is not just the potential for ibrutinib but that pcyc looks very attractive as a takeover target. Pcyc is sitting on a lot of cash, have litlle if any debt, and has a product that fits well into the drug portfolio of many drug companies. Any positive phase iii data will drive pcyc price even higher. Phase ii trials have confirmed safety and efficacy so the potential risk of a phase iii trial disater is minimized. Insider accumulation of pcyc shares is a good sign that more good thing is about to come. With a stock like pcyc, you are all in or out.
The key word is "after a positive FDA decision". Insider purchase activity does not support confidence. Nevertheless, given IPXL decent financials, at current price levels, its worth taking a shot.
LVS has been proven to be resilent even in the worse economic downturn scenario. Also given the fact that LVS pays 2% dividend, acquiring LVS on any weakness is a good long term investment strategy.
So to make 129%, you had to time the short exactly and go long exactly. You broke the number 1 rule in stock...never try to time the market rather you should buy on the fundamentals of the company. Orex new drug is nothing new...and certainly is not a blockbuster.
Your math is wrong...
You said "A few days later, the drug got rejected by the FDA and the stock plunged 73%, more than I expected. Since then, the stock has risen over 44%. That means those who took my advice yielded a combined total of 117% in a matter of less than 9 days. ".
Your math is wrong... At the lowest price point, Orex was $2.47. The highest pricing point is $3.61. Assuming that you time it perfectly, you made $1.46. That is a 59% gain at best.
If you held it before the 73% plunge, you are still in the red....
You failed to mention that Orex needs $200 million to conduct the study to satisfy the FDA. This requires additional cash Orex does not have. For small companies like Orex with only a few drugs in the pipeline that can make or break a company you cannot use price charts to determine when you should jump in, you must know the drug in question inside out..... you sound like an amateur.