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John Li  

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  • After FDA Approval, A New And Bigger Catalyst Looms Closer For Immunogen [View article]
    In the Emilia trial, T-DM1 had excellent results in patients that failed first line therapy. Therefore, as a first line agent, T-DM1 should perform even better. The Marrianne trial will prove this but at this point, I believe most physicians already know this and may be using Kadcyla (T-DM1) as a first line agent in some patients that opt for Kadcyla instead of taking a chance on getting worse. Because of this, I suspect the next earning IMGN earning report will exceed most analysts estimates. Therefore IMGN may hit $20 very soon with an earnig surprise.
    Mar 11, 2013. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ImmunoGen, Surprisingly Quiet Ahead Of FDA Decision [View article]
    FYI, Looks like institutions are accumulating. This have to be a good sign moving forward.

    Ownership Summary
    Ownership Analysis # of Holders Shares
    Total Shares Held: 145 69,324,308
    New Positions: 16 700,807
    Increased Positions: 68 5,456,462
    Decreased Positions: 52 3,742,927
    Sold Out Positions: 9 91,438

    Read more: http://bit.ly/X7S92B
    Feb 14, 2013. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ImmunoGen, Surprisingly Quiet Ahead Of FDA Decision [View article]
    Currently, IMGN is trading below its 30,20,and 10 day moving averages. I don't see much "profit taking motives" to occur anytime soon because there are no "profits" currently left on the table. Since Jan 22nd, IMGN lost 7.7% of its value mainly due to investors' reaction to IMGN's recent earnings. With poor earnings expectations already factored in, the approval of T-DM1 can only be a positive catalyst for IMGN given that the approval of T-DM1 will validate IMGN's tap technology as something practically useful rather than thoeritical. Also given that Genentech's sales force is the best of the best, I would expect to see royalties rolling in faster for IMGN rather than later. An improved revenue stream for IMGN can also increase the value of IMGN considerably.
    Feb 14, 2013. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Are Dead Wrong On Immunogen [View article]
    Who "baked" in the price? Analyst. What will IMGN bottom line be in 2013? Depends on T-DM1 sales in 2013 which analysts have yet to figure out and come to a consensus. SGEN may be good, but Immunogen's TAP technology will be going "live" this year with a widely expected FDA approval on Feb 26th. No analysts have yet showed me how they came up with the magical $14 target price. The price as of today is $14.39. I find it illogical for IMGN price to actually drop to $14 when approval is announced. If you have any reference as to how the analyst calculated $14 target price please provide me the link. Thank you.
    Jan 31, 2013. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Are Dead Wrong On Immunogen [View article]
    The idea of antibody-drug conjugates is not proprietary, however, once the FDA approves T-DM1 on February 26th, this idea becomes a reality based on TAP technology owned by Immunogen. Having its TAP technology utilized in a billion dollar product like Herceptin that is being promoted by a power house company like Genentech will put a small company like Immunogen on the radar of big Biopharms looking to acquire.
    Jan 31, 2013. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Analysts Are Dead Wrong On Immunogen [View article]
    Back in 2012, an Oppenheimer's analyst downgraded Immunogen to $10. For the most part of 2012, IMGN traded 40-50% above the analyst's prediction. Now for 2013, Oppenheimer's analyst's target price is $14. Even Oppenheimer analysts don't agree on a target price. The point of my article is that analysts are speculating just like everyone else. I have yet to see an explanation on how they derive their target price. Since Immunogen current price is already above the analyst's target price of $14, I find it difficult to believe on the day of T-DM1 approval announcement, Immunogen price will drop.
    Jan 31, 2013. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Immunogen Is Undervalued [View article]
    By the year 2015, Herceptin patent would have expired. Given that Roche owns Herceptin and T-DM1 (which is basically a newer version of Herceptin), Roche most likely will be aggressively promoting T-DM1 and letting Herceptin die on the vine. Gven this scenario, T-DM1 will be achieving sales much faster than what most analysts forecast. Also given that T-DM1 will most likely be priced higher than Herceptin, achieving a $5.6B sale where Herceptin left off is also possible.
    Dec 8, 2012. 04:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Immunogen Is Undervalued [View article]
    The only form of breast cancer that is non invasive and considered non-life threatening is DCIS (Ductal Carcinoma in Situ- Stage 0 breast cancer). All other forms of Breast Cancer is life threatening. Patients being treated with chemotherapy typically have breast cancer that is beyond surgical cure. The only question remains is how aggressive does the patient and physician willing to treat with chemotherapy. Typically, a more aggressive approach will have more side effects. In the case of T-DM1, an aggressive approach actually has fewer side effects. Cost is always an issue for physicians and patients. However, if a physician is transparent with a patient on discussing all available treatment options, it would be very difficult for a patient to refuse nor a physician to deny T-DM1 treatment given the survival data available.
    Nov 12, 2012. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Immunogen Revenue Can Be Much Higher Than Analyst Predictions [View article]
    This article shows that analyst like everyone else is speculating. At the end of the day, you should do your own due diligence.
    Nov 1, 2012. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ImmunoGen's CEO Discusses F1Q13 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    IMGN true value should not be based on a single royalty deal with Roche. IMGN true value should be based on the potential of TDM-1 platform technology. A FDA approval of TDM-1/Herceptin is expected very soon by most analyst. Once FDA approves TDM-1, this validates the efficacy and safety of TDM-1 platform technology. With a validated TDM-1 platform, IMGN can form limitless potential partnerships, can negotiate much better royalty terms, and will secure a solid revenue stream since TDM-1 can be combined with limitless chemo agents. With the announcement of a FDA approval, most analyst cannot even begin to calculate the surge in IMGN pricing and how high it will go since IMGN revenue potential can be in the stratosphere. Today's IMGN price drop in response to the earning report is a knee jerk reaction to a myoptic valuation and understanding of TDM-1 potential. Based on currently available clinical data, I am betting that IMGN will get the approval and in this given scenario, I see a Roche's 3% deal as not a big issue and I see a buying opportunity on today's dip.
    Oct 26, 2012. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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