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John Lott  

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  • Geokinetics: Value In This Restructuring Play [View article]
    Thanks nb
    Mar 21, 2013. 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bonds May Be A Value Now [View article]
    Thanks to everyone that has posted - this has been a great thread with a lot of valuable input. Next up for me is Chiquita - I am struggling to get my head around their situation.
    Mar 20, 2013. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bonds May Be A Value Now [View article]
    Laser - last question first - the best book out there by far is "Distressed Debt Analysis" by Steven Moyer. As for maturity date, this is really technical question but generally speaking there is an "inter-creditor agreement" that would be used to determine the "priority" of claims. There is a company in BK now that you can see an active restructuring taking place: CUSIP 37252CAB6. You can see all of the filings at http://bit.ly/Zwa2Ii (I also recommend reading up on Circuit City or other liquidations for which I have provided a link in the comments above). Lastly, for an LBO, there are call provisions and change of control provisions for each bond. You can read them in the companies filings on the JCP website: search for the 424B5 filing on May 20th, 2010. These are long documents with lots of details but the devil is in the details.
    Mar 20, 2013. 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bonds May Be A Value Now [View article]
    Aqua - on the cash burn down, I assumed that cash would burn down nearly 80%. Current level is $930MM and my liquidation had a value of $200MM a burn down of $730MM which is ~78% from most recent balance sheet level.

    Check out the liquidation of Circuit City - cash balance was $275MM in the court approved plan at the time of liquidation. Also, bare in mind that the market during Circuit City's liquidation is materially different from the current market today. I am not saying we can't see another 2008, but at the current moment, I do not see that on the horizon.
    Mar 19, 2013. 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bonds May Be A Value Now [View article]
    richardhabibi - take a look at the circuit city liquidation. it can be found on the following link:

    http://bit.ly/16FI6G2

    Then look at the court approved plan of liquidation. Should be instructive, particularly as it relates to real estate.
    Mar 18, 2013. 10:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bonds May Be A Value Now [View article]
    alschroed - i agree that there will be consolidation/failures in this sector. It is for this reason that I believe that the strategy that everyone hates right now is the right thing. Tweaking the balance sheet or half steps wont get it done. They are going to have to move away from the pack of retailers in this space.
    Mar 18, 2013. 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bonds May Be A Value Now [View article]
    Value Sap - I agree with you that the RE value is much higher than what I used in a liquidation scenario. My numbers were based on a failed recovery and worst case, distressed liquidation; a scenario that I believe is highly unlikely.
    Mar 18, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bonds May Be A Value Now [View article]
    Thanks Shane. I took a quick look and KTP is yielding more than the bonds so I assume they are using leverage which, if you are convinced this is money good, would be a nice way to play it. I will take a closer look.
    Mar 18, 2013. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Bonds May Be A Value Now [View article]
    Aqua, unfortunately there are no convertibles. It is also important to note that only the 2097 bonds are callable if they start to get traction.
    Mar 18, 2013. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons This Rally Is Toast [View article]
    that is really funny. well done
    Jun 16, 2010. 12:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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