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  • The Dollar vs. Treasuries Dichotomy [View article]
    Interesting opinion and excellent analysis. I have been referring to the bond bubble (treasuries) of 2008-2009. Your discussion points out that the "bubble" might last for much longer. Good point. However, even if it takes years rather than months to burst the "bubble", it is prudent to keep nibbling at shorting treasuries. After all, interest can't go below zero. (Or can it?)

    Over extended periods from 1980 to 2000 stocks and bonds were positively correlated. Since 2001, the historical norm (negative correlation) has occurred some of the time. There has definitely been negative correlation over the past 14 months and this is likely to continue for many months (years?) into the future. Thus, a good trade for the past year and looking forward is shorting stocks and buying bonds, continuing until it's time to buy stocks and short bonds. Timing? Track both stock indexes and treasury prices. They should both give the reversal signal within a few weeks of each other.
    Dec 05 12:31 pm |Rating: +2 0
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