John Lounsbury

Finally Time to Short U.S. Treasuries?

Brett - - -

I have been suffering the same agonies as you have. As always, timing is crucial. There's an old saying (sorry, no attribution) that "markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent".

I am cautiously increasing my TBT holdings. To answer SlickRick's question, my exit will be by hitting stop loss levels maintained below nearest support. For the courageous, buy TBT and hold for the long term. There are two outcomes: (1) we go into a long depression and interest rates rmain depressed for years (dead money outcome) or (2) we over stimulate and inflation results with dramatically higher interest rates for a few years (big profit outcome). Even the dead money outcome will come to an end (or the U.S. and the dollar go away) and the result eventually is profit (if the U.S. survives). If life as we know it ends, items of personal survival are the only wise investments.