John Lounsbury

If a Bubble Bubble Bursts Off the Balance Sheet, Will Anyone Be There to Hear It?

Reggie - - -

Good reporting.

The banks even have a name for things they hide off the balance sheet - SIVs. The acronym stands for Special Investment Vehicles.

Monoline Mania: MBIA and Ambac Included in the Dash to Trash

Tom - - -

One thing you didn't discuss is the relationship of the "dash to trash" to the state of the overall market. This type of speculative excess often occurs at major tops. There are more and more people with good track records calling for a correction or a major sell-off. Three people I follow in that camp are Doug Kass, Richard Arms and Ron Insana. This week advance/decline lines have weakened noticably. Candlestick charts are loaded with dojis.

I like your reference to a full moon event, but I think I am going to get ready for Dow 8000 +/-.

Ben Graham Had It Right

I love the quote:

<As Charlie Munger had said, “People calculate too much and think too little.”>

This is a problem I have to battle personally all the time. However, when things work properly, I am able to follow the calculation with some thought. Thats when I get the best results.

This is a good article and balanced by a good comment from kelm.

HeywoodJabloney - - -

In just one paragraph you have distilled the intellectual deficienies of many financial operatives into a few insightful words. I hope to read more comments from you.

Selling the Short Sellers Short: Another Sign of Trouble

I put on and took off short positions to hedge my Goldman Sachs long position several time this week. Every time I went short it was 200 shares short for every 100 shares long in my portfolio. No problem putting any of the trades. I am a "small investor". I'd like to know if those claiming it is impossible for small investors to short financial stocks have actually tried to do it.

Why We're Still in the Early Innings of the Bursting of the Housing and Credit Bubbles - And Implications for MBIA and Ambac

Does anyone remember the Federal Land Bank? During the great depression, the government took ownership of real estate, largely farms, that went into default. If this housing/credit bubble becomes a catastrophe, the same thing could happen again. In the 1930's to early 40's, some real estate was bought from the government for as little as 10-20% on the dollar (compared to 1920's and 1950's prices).

This would be a great cycle of wealth destruction, followed by a supercycle of wealth creation.