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Are Safe Haven Investments Really Immune From Current Crisis? [View article]
The only question I have is timing. It may be that the unwinding of the credit paper pyramid will take some time (years, not months). As long as this deleveraging is going on, credit will remain tight. The re-inflation of the economy may be very sudden, but it also may be years away. Alternatively, effects of the credit bubble may linger and demand may remain supressed and return only gradually. Then the supply side stresses you anticipate may develop slowly, not with a sudden surge.