John Lounsbury

Li-ion Battery Technologies: Understanding Their Development Path

John - - -

I think Isaac was suggesting that you construct an index (perhaps in consultation with Charles and Tom). It could be the basis for one of the ETF sponsoring companies to start a new broad based ETF.

I think that is a great suggestion. You should look into it.

Long Live the Cleantech Revolution

Advill and John Petersen - - -

I have reviewed the Hyperion Power Generation information. Here's a summary:

1. The will make portable nuclear power generation units.

2. They expect to have a "couple of delivery dates available" in 2013.

3. They are privately funded (that's why they are not on your radar, John).

4. Units are cylindrical, about 1.5 meters in diameter and 3 meters tall.

5. Units are ... "Out of sight and safe from nefarious threats, Hyperion power modules are buried far underground and guarded by a security detail."

6. Units cost $25,000,000 to $30,000,000.

7. Units produce 25MW for 5 years before they are "recharged" at the factory. That translates to $0.57 to $0.69 per kwh. This is 4-7 times what most in the U.S. pay for electricity. (I pay $0.10 in North Carolina.) I don't know how much the Hyperion cost for the first five years is increased by delivery, installation and "secuirty detail" costs. Also, there is no information given by Hyperion on how much the cost might be reduced in five year periods after the first (recharged periods).

The web site is www.hyperionpowergener...

Alternative Energy Storage Stocks: Review and Outlook

John Petersen - - -

This update is terrific. I hope you keep monitoring the vital signs of this vital developing area thoughout 2009 and beyond.

DiggerUK - - - Thanks for the "open letter". I thought that was the case but I do appreciate the confirmation.

billp37 - - -

Useful information about a solarthermal application. Thanks.

To all - - -

I have been daydreaming about a hybrid photovoltaic-thermal generating system. It is a generating facility that levels electrical production across 24 hours and multiple days by using PV when the sun shines and stores the thermal energy for generation in other hours. The idea is based on the waste of thermal energy when doing PV and the waste of PV energy when collecting thermal energy.

Confession: I don't have the foggiest idea about what such a configuration might look like.

Questions:

1. Is this, like many day dreams, a fantasy?

2. Is there any merit to having an integrated facility or would seperate thermal and PV generators make more sense?

Enough dislosure about my daydreams.

Happy New Year to all.

Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance

John - - -

I really anticpated your answer because I have read much of what you have written. So let me suggest Plan B: Can you keep pushing this question as a challenge and maybe some reader will seize the challenge and add to the discussion.

I recognize that the questions I ask, if thoroughly addressed, would be worthy of a Ph.D. thesis in Economics or Materials Science.


On Dec 26 03:02 PM John Petersen wrote:

> John, it's one thing for me to talk about what the finished products
> costs are and another entirely to estimate what they might be. That
> kind of work requires detailed manufacturing expertise that I simply
> don't have. In a perfect world, the various manufacturers would publish
> white papers about their relative costs and expected future economies.
> But it's hard enough right now trying to get to reliable costs per
> kWh. This baby is changing fast and I'm sure the rules we have today
> won't apply forever. So the best I can do is try to keep on top of
> developments and talk about what is, rather than what might be.

Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance

Correction - - -

I wrote "...you have been effectively against the monument."

Insert the word "pushing": ...you have been PUSHING effectively against the monument.

Entirely different implication. Sorry.

Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance

John Petersen - - -

At the risk of putting the cart before the horse (this suggestion may be too early to be anything more than a temporary stab at the subject), do you think that an analysis attempting to separate different cost effects for emerging generation and storage technologies could be done? Let me make a list to clarify what I mean by different types of estimated cost factors:

1. Scalable costs that will come down with volume production and usage.

2. Fixed costs that have no economy of scale.

3. Costs that might have reverse economy of scale (higher raw material costs based on scarcity facing higher demand, for example).

4. Costs that face the risk of lowered recoverability through obsolescence (by a leap-frogging technology change).

I realize that what I am asking is monumental if tackled comprehensively, but you have been effectively against the monument. Can you keep trying to focus on these issues in manageable pieces as you continue your work?

My comments here are prompted by the comment stream discussion of uranium availability (Vienna and billp37) and use of thorium (kewlhand) and the mention of Li-ion-phosphate technology (Road Runner). I am aware of this technology which Valence (VLNC) is working on. There are other alternative lithium based systems from Altair Nano (ALTI) and A123 Systems (privately held). The mention of EEstor (nickgogert) raises the question: how does this relate to the BoostCap technology from Maxwell Technology (MXWL)?

John, if you continue your sofar excellent efforts, the parameters of energy storage technology and the intersection with new generation technologies can only become clearer. Thanks for doing what you are doing.

Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance

As John Petersen states in the title, its all about cost vs. performance. I would like to see an analysis of cost for expanding nuclear (construction and maintenance, including uranium mining and processing) vs. other alternatives. What projections can be made for the future availability and cost of uranium? I hate to cite Vienna because of the language chosen in the comment, but it is claimed that uranium will be exhausted in 50 years. Is that known reserves? What are the possibilities of further reserves being discovered? Is this like peak oil, where we really don't know when the peak will occur, but are getting a better idea of peak cheap oil.

John Petersen continuously tries to assess the future cost profiles of emerging technologies, but these are merely estimates ("guesstimates"). I think he has made it clear he does not have a crystal ball regarding such things as technology evolution in battery chemistries and potential economies of scale for a wide variety of still rather primitive commercializations of solar (thermal and photovoltaic), wind, geothermal, tidal and wave hydropower, etc.

Discussion of the entire future energy paradigm is still proceding on the level of hunches. John Petersen is providing an excellent service in summarizing the rationale of various efforts underway, but, as he has made clear in his excellent series of articles, this entire area is still in gestation - it hasn't even reached infancy, in my opinion.

John, I hope you have the patience to stay with this subject and keep your perspectives regarding developments in the energy storage area in front of us for some time to come.