John Lounsbury

Friday's Job Loss Report: As Bad as It Gets?

Markos - - -

Good article with some logical conclusions. You are off base in one area, though.

You wrote: "However, employment is a lagging indicator."

This is a commonly quoted adage, but the reality is not that simple. Employment is a lagging indicator, a coincident indicator and a leading indicator.

There are two labor statistics in in the Index of Leading Economic indicators:
1. Average weekly hours of production workers (manufacturing)
2. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted)

There are two labor statistics in the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators:
1. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
2. Personal income minus transfer payments

There are three labor related statistics in the Index of Lagging Economic Indicators:
1. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
2. Change in index of labor cost per unit of output
3. Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income

These indexes are maintained by the U.S. Department of Commerce:
bea.gov

Two employment measures headlined this week (initial unemployment claims and weekly hours worked) are the two leading indicators.

10 by 10: A New Way to Look at Dividend Yield and Growth

Hank S. - - -

David specifically mentions that dividend reinvestment would improve the return. I believe the reason David has not attempted to calculate the effect of dividend reinvestment is purely a practical matter: To do this calculation requires assumptions about the price of the stock during the reinvestment period. There are nearly an infinite number of possible price paths over the time period (40 calender quarters). The only possible study would be to review a number of stocks in retrospect (a ten year history).

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

The solution: 300 Democrats in the house and 61 Democrats in the Senate. Then you can hold their fingers over the candle flame!