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John Lounsbury
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John Lounsbury, Managing Editor and Co-founder of Global Economic Intersection, provides comprehensive financial planning and investment advisory services to a small number of families on a fee only basis. He has a background which includes 34 years with a major international corporation, 25... More
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John B Lounsbury CFP
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Global Economic Intersection
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  • A New Channel For Stocks

    An interesting graphic at 5 Min. Forecast today:

    So can we put it on auto pilot?

    I'll ask three questions:

    1. So far the rebound from the dip is a lot less robust than the two previous cases. Is this a matter of concern?

    2. What would an Elliot Wave analyst say the pattern is? Is it a-b-c-d so far with a final "e" awaiting for a peak?

    3. And how many people see a half of a head and shoulders pattern emerging?

    There really should be a fourth question:

    How many time have you seen someone mention the potential for a head and shoulder pattern over the years that didn't ever complete?

    Finally, back to auto pilot: A fool and his boat are soon parted on auto pilot.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: SPY, bull market
    Feb 28 4:00 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Crushing The Dollar?

    The following graph from the The Daily Reckoning this morning highlights the six-month trend for the dollar.

    There is also a technical analysis summary this morning by Nick Simpson at GEI Investing:

    • The dollar index has hit its strongest level in five months, trading around previous resistance in the USDX 81.50 area, following the Fed policy meeting minutes on Wednesday.
    • Divergent views on QE by the Fed policy makers has seen the US dollar gain across the board. There has been speculation that the Fed could potentially end the monetary easing programme sooner than previously anticipated.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Feb 25 11:54 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Revulsion For Stocks

    An interesting graphic from the reveals why we may not be at a top for stocks:

    The minimum in sentiment in 2012 implies that there may be between six months and more than a year before the stock market peaks.

    That is certainly not the way it feels to me, but I have not sold much up to now.

    From the viewpoint that the market will make the maximum number of investors into fools, it would be appropriate for a further rise above the peaks of 2000 and 2007 should be achieved, the pundits all declare the 13-year (plus) bear market to be over, and only then have a significant market decline after suckering in all the last hold-outs.

    But you are just reading the thoughts of an insufferable cynic.

    Added note: I am not suggesting that the Nasdaq peak in 2000 will be taken out before a decline, just all the other (non-tech bubble) indexes.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Feb 11 4:00 PM | Link | 5 Comments
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