John Lounsbury's  Instablog

The following graph from the The Daily Reckoning this morning highlights the six-month trend for the dollar.

There is also a technical analysis summary this morning by Nick Simpson at GEI Investing:

• The dollar index has hit its strongest level in five months, trading around previous resistance in the USDX 81.50 area, following the Fed policy meeting minutes on Wednesday.
• Divergent views on QE by the Fed policy makers has seen the US dollar gain across the board. There has been speculation that the Fed could potentially end the monetary easing programme sooner than previously anticipated.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

An interesting graphic from the reveals why we may not be at a top for stocks:

The minimum in sentiment in 2012 implies that there may be between six months and more than a year before the stock market peaks.

That is certainly not the way it feels to me, but I have not sold much up to now.

From the viewpoint that the market will make the maximum number of investors into fools, it would be appropriate for a further rise above the peaks of 2000 and 2007 should be achieved, the pundits all declare the 13-year (plus) bear market to be over, and only then have a significant market decline after suckering in all the last hold-outs.

But you are just reading the thoughts of an insufferable cynic.

Added note: I am not suggesting that the Nasdaq peak in 2000 will be taken out before a decline, just all the other (non-tech bubble) indexes.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

This past week one of the leaders in global finance, Adair Turner, chairman of the FSA (Financial Services Authority), gave a speech of historic importance. In an address to the Cass Business School, 06 February 2013, Turner proposed that governments should use money for themselves and for ordinary citizens that is directly produced and not be restricted to that obtained via issuance of private bank credit as the global financial system has operated by and large for 100 years.

Anatole Kaletsky (Reuters) called the address an "emperor's new clothes" moment. He also said it a "truly historic speech."

This is an astounding development for those (including me) who have been arguing that the monopoly of private banking for money creation is a seriously misdirected economic policy. This monopoly is directly responsible for the mismanagement of the business cycle for the past century.

With the historic Adair Turner paper we could finally see the question I have asked for several years discussed:

Why must nations with sovereign currency pay interest to use their currency (except for that they reclaim from citizens in the form of taxes)?

Read the rest of the news article here.