John Lounsbury's  Instablog

Jack Andraka was a 15-year old high school student when he discovered a simple and extremely inexpensive test which detects pancreatic, ovarian and lung cancers at a very early stage when they are easily treated with nearly 100% success.

These cancers, especially pancreatic cancer, have very high mortality rates because they are typically detected in terminal stages.

Andraka has won an international youth science award for his work.

If this proves out it is a tremendously big deal, putting Andraka in a category that would include Alexander Fleming and Jonas Salk.

We have more plus Andraka making a TED presentation at Global Economic Intersection.

Business Insider has an interesting graphic today:

click to enlarge)

This graph inspired the headline. I was immediately reminded of the store clerk who asks the shopper: "May I help you?"

The classic answer: "No Thanks. Just Looking."

Why is this happening?

One answer is that buyers are cautious after experiencing a housing bubble collapse. Another possibility is that a lot of home owners who would like to sell are trying to evaluate the market.

Anecdotally, two real estate agents I know personally tell me that almost all showings are for possible buyers who have a home to sell before they can buy - and many do not consider making contingent offers (contingent on sale of current residence). And only a small percentage of contingent offers go to closing, much below what transpired five and ten years ago.

Housing inventories are low which should be producing more interest in new homes. The modest increase indicates that the demand for new houses remains very low, within 100,000 +/- per year of the historic lows of early 2011 - and half a million below the pre-bubble sales of 1999.

Recent headlines show some promising data:

• CoreLogic: 1.4 million Homes Moved Into Positive Equity In 3Q's of 2012 In the story the data is revealed showing that 10.7 million home owners are still under water (negative equity).

• November 2012 CoreLogic Home Prices Now Up 7.4% Year-over-Year

• Top 10 Predictions for Housing in 2013: RE/MAX Co-Founder Sees 2013 as the Best in Years The best in years? This optimistic realtor predicts home prices will rise 3-4%, only about half of the 2012 number. And this is the most optimistic 2013 price prediction I have seen.

If we really have seen the bottom for this housing cycle it appears to me that the recovery will be a long slog.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

John Hussman has been rather bearish for the past 1-2 years, and has been getting more so lately. The following graphic from the 5 Min. Forecast presents a 65-year data pattern that has an ominous implication for earnings. If the previous pattern is repeated again earnings will suffer a contraction of at least 20-30% over the next four years.

The fallout for stock prices could be devastating if the pattern plays out.

And what if the subsequent peak (red) exceeds the current peak (blue) as it has in all nine previous cases shown on the graph? The four-year annual profit decline could exceed 20%, which compounded would accumulate to more than 100% loss of profit.

The last time we went into that area (4Q/2008), we went through a 58% decline in the S&P 500 index from the October 11, 2007 high (1,576.09) to the March 6, 2009 low (666.79).

Disclosure: I am long SPY.