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John M. Mason  

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  • Value Of The U.S. Dollar Rises As Investors See Stronger Economy And Exhibit Confidence In The Federal Reserve [View article]
    The 2.2% figure is for the fourth quarter annualized. As I state in the post the year-over-year number is what I have presented.
    Feb 28, 2015. 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Obama's Budget Proposal: A Lack Of Credibility [View article]
    "In other words, the programs of the budget must be presented within the framework of a plan that gives people the confidence that you are going to back up the budget you are presenting them with."

    This is not about a balanced is about creating a context in which your story...your budget...can be presented.

    "There is absolutely nothing like this in the Obama budget."
    Feb 3, 2015. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The December Labor Statistics: The Longer-Term View [View article]

    I don't disagree with your view about where the IT industry is. However, as we have seen historically, that even though the technology may be developed to a large degree, the full implementation of the technology takes a long time...decades even.

    For example, even though the IT industry is as far along as it is...banking and finance...I still way behind and the next five years or so will change the industry to where we may have trouble recognizing it.

    But, this is for my grandsons to work out...they are the ones on the real cutting edge and want their IT to be ubiquitous. They want a world I can't even imagine...and it's only five years out.

    Jan 12, 2015. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The United States Economy In 2015 [View article]

    In the post, I reported that the growth of real GDP in the third quarter of 2014 was 2.4 percent. The Commerce Department released the second revision of the third quarter numbers this morning, and the growth of real GDP in the third quarter of 2014 was revised upwards to 2.7 percent.
    Dec 23, 2014. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New Study On Wealth Distribution Shows Where People Should Be Investing [View article]
    It is unfortunate that the data are not released for these periods. Just had to work with how the Federal Reserve prepared the data.
    Dec 19, 2014. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Flags To Counter Green Shoots: How U.S. Dollar Rise Is Hurting U.S. Corporate Profits [View article]
    Exports are a part of GDP. Growth is measured in terms of increases in real GDP. What don't you understand?
    Dec 11, 2014. 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Central Bank Decides... To Wait! [View article]
    I agree with you...Germans are not prepared to pay off Latin debt...and shouldn't be. You have not read my blog before...see,
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama To G-20: Get Your Act In Order! [View article]
    Didn't take your comment as demeaning.

    No foul!
    Nov 13, 2014. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve: A Scenario For Raising Short-Term Interest Rates [View article]
    All I meant was that as the Fed reduces the size of its balance sheet, this will reduce the supply of funds in the money market and this should put upward pressure on short-term interest rates.

    I have no problem with your substituting "unprecedented" for "extreme" and the rest of your comment.


    Nov 3, 2014. 08:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve: A Scenario For Raising Short-Term Interest Rates [View article]
    Lawrence J. Kramer:
    It was not clear in my paragraph that I was referring to the supply of funds to the money markets and not the supply of real output, whereas I discussed the demand pressure on the money markets coming from increasing real growth of the economy. Hope this helps...

    Sorry for the lack of clarity.
    Nov 3, 2014. 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Expectations Of Economic Growth: How Long Can The Expansion Go On And What Will It Look Like [View article]
    So you are saying that we are living in the longest period of economic expansion in US history.
    We are very lucky!
    Oct 2, 2014. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Interest Rates Rise And What Will Cause Them To Rise? [View article]
    The market for five year Treasuries tend to be more liquid than the ten year market and the twenty year Treasury market tens to be a lot less liquid than either of the other two.
    Hope this answers your question.
    Sep 24, 2014. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will Interest Rates Rise And What Will Cause Them To Rise? [View article]
    Because in 09/2012, lots and lots of risk averse money was leaving Europe during their financial crisis seeking a "safe haven" to invest in. During this time the 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities were producing a negative yield. During that September the 5-year TIPS was trading around -1.6 percent. This made 5 year "inflationary expectations" at that time about +2.2 percent.

    Most of that risk averse money has returned to Europe and we find that the 5-year TIPS are now yielding around +0.3 percent with "inflationary expectations" about +1.5 percent.

    As the Fed has been observing, "inflationary expectations" have fallen over the past couple of years.

    Most of the change in interest rates was due to the inflow and outflow of foreign funds to the United States

    Sep 24, 2014. 07:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • European Central Bank Tries To Put Money In Banking System, But The Banks Don't Want It... Now [View article]
    My comment in the part you quoted...
    Mr. Drag hi "is not convinced...that quantitative easing actually works...."'

    I have written continuously that I do not believe quantitative easing has worked in stimulating economic growth.

    I don't see where you got your idea I thought QE has worked.
    Sep 21, 2014. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking At The Federal Reserve From The Perspective Of A Hedge Fund [View article]
    A "classic" case in economic history was George Soros betting against the British pound and Bank of England policy.

    Another example of hedge funds taking advantage of Federal Reserve policy, using borrowing from commercial banks at very cheap rates created in quantitative easing era to buy homes in foreclosure at reduced prices, turning them into rental units and then created and issued a new security where interest payments are supported by rental payments. Bank loans showed up as commercial loans and not as mortgages. I have written about this in past posts.

    And, there are many other examples in this "recovery" where hedge funds and private equity funds have benefited from the "incentives" created by the Fed. I have written on several of these situations in previous posts.
    Sep 8, 2014. 12:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment