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John M. Yenkes  

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  • 5 Mortgage REITs Yielding 12% Plus Dividend Yields [View article]
    Todd, would you still be buying MTGE today with this big run up, or would you wait for a pull back (i.e. what is your price target)? What does the price/book look like now?
    Mar 7, 2012. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Mortgage REITs Yielding 12% Plus Dividend Yields [View article]
    Todd, would you still be buying MGTE today, or would you wait for a small pull back? What does the recent run up do to the price/book?
    Mar 7, 2012. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver - Prepare for the Flood [View article]
    Look out below!!! Next stop for SLV, $24.
    May 11, 2011. 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver - Prepare for the Flood [View article]
    So when the Fed eventually reverses its monetary policy and begins to tighten the money supply as the economy improves, you will be able to accurately time the top then, right?
    May 11, 2011. 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver - Prepare for the Flood [View article]
    If you are looking for a hedge against inflation, why not buy large cap equities instead? The companies earnings will all be in inflation adjusted dollars, and they pay out dividends in inflation adjusted dollars. What happens if the current bond market is right, and you are wrong, and we don't have hyperinflation?
    May 8, 2011. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver - Prepare for the Flood [View article]
    I will address each point individually.

    First, the nominal high reached decades ago was the result of serious market manipulation and a failed attempt to corner the market, so I'm not sure what relevance it brings to the discussion. In fact, I would argue the severe price correction and subsequent return to market based valuations is a more important aspect of that period of time.

    Regarding silver being "so important in our way of life," I would offer the fact that fabrication demand has been relatively flat over the last decade, and has actually fallen dramatically in some sectors (photography, silverware, etc).


    At the same time, what has increased is speculation (ahem, "investment"), which has exploded as a sector of silver demand nearly 5,000% in the last decade, led in large measure by the advent of financial ETF instruments which now allow easier access to silver exposure for the masses. In fact, current ETF holdings could meet ALL industrial application demand for an entire year.

    Regarding "above ground availability being destroyed," I would offer that the supplies of silver coming out of the ground have also increased significantly in the last several years. For now, this supply has been easily absorbed by the investment community. But supply in this regard is a lagging indicator. That is to say, it takes a significant amount of time to startup or increase mining operations in order to meet the increase in demand. Make no mistake, there is plenty of silver currently in the ground, and as mining companies scramble to ramp up production and capitalize on high prices, available supply will also rapidly increase. Additionally, scrap recoveries that were previously uneconomical are also sure to increase future supply.

    I'll leave it up to you to deduce what will happen to the price of silver should the speculation music stop right when huge new physical supplies are coming on line. Hint: It's the same thing that happens in every bubble cycle.

    I am a little unsure what you are asking regarding monetary policy and the Federal Reserve? Treasuries do have a cost, it's called interest payments, and it generates income for the bond holder. That's something silver cannot offer. In fact, it actually costs you money to store it somewhere, and to exchange it for those "phony" dollars you hate so much. Also, and most importantly, silver comes without any guarantee that 100% of your capital will be returned.
    May 8, 2011. 06:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver - Prepare for the Flood [View article]
    First, a quick bit of history.

    The growing popularity of tulips in the early 17th century caught the attention of the entire nation; "the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade". By 1635, a sale of 40 bulbs for 100,000 florins (also known as Dutch guilders) was recorded. By way of comparison, a ton of butter cost around 100 florins, a skilled laborer might earn 150 florins a year, and "eight fat swine" cost 240 florins. (According to the International Institute of Social History, one florin had the purchasing power of €10.28 ($14) in 2002.)

    By 1636, tulips were traded on the exchanges of numerous Dutch towns and cities. This encouraged trading in tulips by all members of society; reports recounted people selling or trading their other possessions in order to speculate in the tulip market, such as an offer of 12 acres (49,000 m2) of land for one of two existing Semper Augustus bulbs, or a single bulb of the Viceroy that was purchased for a basket of goods worth 2,500 florins.

    Many individuals grew suddenly rich. A golden bait hung temptingly out before the people, and, one after the other, they rushed to the tulip marts, like flies around a honey-pot. Every one imagined that the passion for tulips would last forever, and that the wealthy from every part of the world would send to Holland, and pay whatever prices were asked for them. The riches of Europe would be concentrated on the shores of the Zuyder Zee, and poverty banished from the favoured clime of Holland. Nobles, citizens, farmers, mechanics, seamen, footmen, maidservants, even chimney sweeps and old clotheswomen, dabbled in tulips.

    Sound familiar? I find it interesting that basically almost 400 years later people still fall for the same trick. I bet the chimney sweeps had the same empty feeling in the pit of their stomach silver bulls are now starting to feel. I mean what a sales job these people bought into. Honestly, what if someone came to your door (today it's Pat Boone on late night infomercials) and tried to convince you to trade all of your cash for some shiny metal because it is a BETTER type of money than yours. Except his is not readily used as a medium of exchange in trade or business, and you have to pay money to store it somewhere, and it doesn't produce any income, and the bid/ask spread creates a huge premium if you actually want to cash it in to buy something. Oh yeah, I almost forgot, ultimately you are almost certain to lose value unless fiat currency and all of western society collapses. Not as bad as paying $35k for a tulip bulb, but I digress.

    Long Sept. 11 AGQ 105 puts.
    May 6, 2011. 08:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Play the Gold and Metals Bust - 3 Short Plays [View article]
    Short term bounce up to $38-$40 and then the bear raid will continue.

    Long Sept 11 AGQ 105 puts.
    May 6, 2011. 08:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver - Prepare for the Flood [View article]
    Some of us did buy last week. This wasn't that difficult to see coming after the failed re-test of $50.
    May 6, 2011. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment