Seeking Alpha

John Miller

 
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  • Understanding The Gold Trade: Why Gold Hates Inflation
    Tue, Jan. 13 GDX, GLD 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Inflation is moderately low, but with the Federal Funds rate near zero, real rates are negative.
    • The Fed will not raise rates until inflation expectations increase.
    • With inflation expectations well-grounded, consider both physically backed gold plays, such as the GLD, and also a basket of miners, such as the GDX, with their leverage to gold prices.
  • Newmont Breaks Ground At $1 Billion Merian Mine In Suriname
    Tue, Jan. 6 NEM 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Merian is key to Newmont stabilizing gold production above 5 million ounces per year.
    • Merian contains 4.2 million ounces of probable reserves.
    • All-in sustain costs are estimated between $750 and $850 with initial production between 400,000 and 500,000 ounces per year.
    • Suriname agreed to became a fully-funded, 25% limited partner.
  • Why Greenspan Is Long Gold And Dissing Fiat Currencies
    Fri, Jan. 2 GDX, GLD 64 Comments

    Summary

    • Greenspan says unwinding the Federal Reserve and ECB balance sheets will cause turmoil.
    • Greenspan believes turmoil moves positively into the gold price because gold is the premiere currency.
    • History points towards gold’s intrinsic monetary characteristics. Today’s central bankers share the belief that gold is money.
  • New Gold Discoveries Plunge, Peak Gold In 2015 Predicted
    Dec. 25, 2014 GLD, GG, NEM 24 Comments

    Summary

    • The market’s focus on impending interest rate increases misses the longer-term trend of diminishing gold supply.
    • New gold discoveries are at the lowest levels in decades.
    • Global exploration budgets, while still elevated historically, are falling significantly.
  • Gold Eyes ECB, Preps For Eurozone QE
    Nov. 20, 2014 GLD, IAU 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The ECB is preparing measures to buy Eurozone sovereign bonds.
    • Draghi does not believe unsterilized sovereign bond purchases violate its mandate against monetary financing.
    • If forced to sterilize sovereign bond purchases, Draghi will implement a weak sterilization regime.
    • Expectations of lower bond yields and an increase in uncertainty in the Eurozone are accretive to gold prices.
  • Despite Recent Blood, Gold Crushing S&P 500 Total Return
    Nov. 6, 2014 GLD 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Constituted ten years ago, the gold backed GLD outperformed the S&P 500 Total Return by 39% and kept pace with Berkshire Hathaway.
    • Recent blood in the precious metals markets and surge in equities presents a classic sell high, buy low opportunity.
    • Near-term catalyst, such as delay in Fed tightening, should halt the fall of gold prices.
  • Ebola Risk Threatens Randgold Resources In Mali
    Nov. 3, 2014 GOLD 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The World Health Organization is treating the Ebola situation in Mali as an emergency.
    • Mali’s initial Ebola case is centered in the Kayes region of Mali. Randgold Resources’ flagship gold mining complex is also located in the Kayes region.
    • Consider reducing exposure to Randgold Resources while still maintaining leveraged exposure to potential gold price increases.
  • Markets Misreading Of Fed Statement Is Opportunity In Gold
    Oct. 31, 2014 GLD, IAU, SGOL 11 Comments

    Summary

    • The markets misread changes to the FOMC’s October statement as hawkish, focusing only on changes to language concerning the labor market.
    • The statement contained dovish additions regarding inflation expectations and shifts in votes toward a more dovish stance.
    • The sell-off in gold following the statement release offers a buying opportunity before markets price-in a more dovish Fed.
  • Gold And Silver Shine When Data Dependent Fed Caves
    Oct. 17, 2014 GLD, SLV, IAU 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Impending increases to the federal funds rate, now called “liftoff” by the FOMC, begin in the second quarter of 2015 according to current projections.
    • As incoming data continues to point toward increasing economic weakness, FOMC participant projections for the federal funds rate likely shift toward a later, weaker more dovish upward movement.
    • Both the preceding market anticipation and eventual declaration of a more dovish FOMC stance would be positive for the monetary metals and is yet to be priced in.
  • Lessons From Apple's Fiscal Q3 Instructive For Current Quarter Predictions
    Sep. 28, 2012 AAPL 31 Comments
  • Expect Beat From Activision On Strong Diablo III Sales
    Aug. 1, 2012 ATVI 2 Comments
  • Freeport-McMoRan's Improved Balance Sheet Sustains Growth And Dividend
    Jul. 13, 2012 FCX 2 Comments
  • Call Of Duty China Employs Fremium Model
    Jul. 5, 2012 ATVI 1 Comment
  • Randgold's Rapid Growth Trumps Political Risks
    Apr. 19, 2012 GOLD 2 Comments
  • Call Of Duty China, Diablo III, Key To NetEase's Outlook
    Mar. 5, 2012 NTES Comment!
  • MW3, World Of Warcraft, Diablo III Key To Activision's Earnings And Outlook
    Feb. 8, 2012 ATVI 17 Comments
  • Expect Beat From EA On Battlefield 3 Sales
    Jan. 31, 2012 EA 12 Comments
  • Expect Surprise From Activision's World Of Warcraft Numbers
    Jan. 20, 2012 ATVI 27 Comments
  • $400 Million Court Battle Looms For EA and Activision
    Dec. 29, 2011 EA, ATVI 4 Comments
  • Activision's Careful Social Strategy
    Dec. 16, 2011 ATVI 13 Comments
  • Perfect World's Disaster Quarter Cloaks 2012 Reversal
    Dec. 2, 2011 PWRD 4 Comments
  • Activision's Record Sales Driven By Unique Corporate Partnerships
    Nov. 22, 2011 ATVI Comment!
  • Why Electronic Arts' Revised Guidance Appears Too Conservative
    Nov. 14, 2011 EA 1 Comment
  • Activision Blizzard's Strengths On Display At BlizzCon
    Oct. 26, 2011 ATVI 12 Comments
  • Profitibility Questions For Electronic Arts' New Social Game
    Oct. 17, 2011 EA 1 Comment
  • Activision's Promising New Franchise: 'Skylanders'
    Oct. 7, 2011 ATVI 26 Comments
  • NetEase to Announce Earnings Wednesday: Growth Outlook Remains Strong
    Aug. 15, 2011 NTES 3 Comments