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FYI: Weakness in crude oil, is credited from the unexpected and enormous increase in US oil production over the past year as a key driver. 3 days ago
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FYI: gold to be more useful as a "fear index" than an investment, it's expected weakness bodes well for his core equity investments. 3 days ago
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FYI: JPMorgan took the lead Friday in the battle of the bulls, raising its year-end price target for the Standard & Poor's 500 to 1,715. 3 days ago
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Our Interest Rate Hike May Be Good, We'll See
The end of April always gives us our economic recovery data for the first quarter of the year. Since we grew at 5.7% the last quarter of the year, this is what everyone will be looking at. If it is significantly lower there could be a panic that the “recovery” is not yet here and self sustaining. This could bring us back into a panic recession again. It doesn’t have to grow at 5.7% again but it can’t be a whole lot lower. Watch the announcement on February job numbers the first week of March, this will give us some sign of where we are headed. If all goes well, we might have language that will hint at another interest rate hike. But if it does happen, it will be no more than a quarter point- even this will have a huge affect upon the recovery. Watch for grandeur hikes come 2011 and 2012.
ETF Update- Whispers..."Sell Me"
We have one loan wolf hanging out there bold enough to go against the grain and whisper "Buy me, sell everyone else, but buy me!" That is our lonely dollar ETF UUP. It does not have a lot of confidence today either, so if you are going to listen to it, be cautious.
Disclosure: No Positions
SPY Today
We do not see any strong trades today. So we will not be trading. Looks like a bearish day all around. Oil & Gold futures are down..."World markets lost earlier gains on Friday as investors worried about China's decision to tighten its monetary policy to cool off growth and eurozone growth figures came in well below expectations."
Here's something to watch...the S&P 500 ETF SPY
It has been bouncing against a key resistance area. Since most futures are down, we may see a downward turn. It is giving weak sell signals anyway.