John Naccarelli

John Naccarelli
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Sky Nurses
To the Author-
Thanks for a very well-written article with compelling facts and arguments. It is obvious that you have actually managed real money and been in the business. I do not say that because I agree with your conclusions - it is how you got there and the logic flow.
I am so happy to see that SA allowed these comments because they have prevented a couple of mine on these type matters. When will the people in this country ever wake up - we just have too many stupid, lazy and ignorant citizens.
Let's be clear that VRNG is a highly speculative and risky trade. $0 is a possibility along with a huge upside assuming they get their act together.
the use of VIX & VXX is simply buying expensive insurance for a long portfolio. I am guilty of using it and have had both success and failure. I recently bought calls when VIX/VXX were in the low-to-mid teens and sold too soon. I did not expect this correction to be so persistent and sustained. Frankly, now I am waiting to see the VXX go over 30 and/or VIX to the mid-to-high 30's and will be looking to buy Puts. This is not insurance and just trading on volatility.
I have been a SUNE bull and even bought back last year at 3.50 but did not sell when it went over 7. However, I regret it now, not because it is <3 again, but I now have very serious doubts about this enterprise. When I have to be concerned about misrepresentation, mismanagement, financial engineering, and obfuscation, I shouldn't be long. The energy sector is a bloodbath and I am heavily bleeding with some very poor choices the past two years. I would go heavily into SUNE but I fear it may be another poor choice.
Pep Boys = PBY
Pepsi = PEP
WOW, that was quite the debate. If you remove the emotion from your opinions, you would all see the reality and financial engineering and leadership/management decisions such as the VVNT deal. The 5-yr hold recommendation is quite a stretch, especially in light of a potential republican president in 2017 and potential EPA changes.
I just want you to consider this fact. Over 20 years ago I would not buy tobacco stocks because I thought they would not survive the anti-tobacco legislation and political action against them. I personally was living in Los Angeles at the time, I had never smoked and hated being around smokers or in establishments where smoking was permitted. I was in complete approval of these anti-tobacco actions.
Here we are and in spite of all the campaigns against tobacco and smokers, they not only survived, but they thrived. If you think the oil companies will not also do so because of the recent events, you have your heads in the sand. If I had kept Philip Morris for the past 20+ years, I would have done very well, but I used the wrong side of my brain in making the sell decision. Are there similarities? I say yes because humans are making the decisions and not machines.
SUNE could go either way!! You can make all the compelling arguments that you want, but SUNE is a TRADE vs. a long-term hold. Fyi, I am long SUNE at 3.50 again and this is after selling all my shares (but 50) the past year from 15 to 30+. I actually expected to add to my position when it to went to $2 but we had a rebound ... but one never knows if I will get another chance. SUNE at 30+ was too good to be true and that is why I sold all. I look forward to the next 6 to 12 months to see what happens and let the debate continue.
as I read the article because I am long GSK, I know that you spent a lot of time on excel. I appreciate the work and will use the stats to draw my own conclusions. As someone else pointed out one drug can change everything ... but that's why you own pharma.
Thanks for the hard work!!
HEAVY ... that's 375 lbs!!
EXACTLY...I am sick and tired of people touting these organizations such as Goldman Sachs and their pundits. They do not have a crystal ball and it is a guessing game for them. There are so many factors that can affect the market direction in 2016, most of which cannot be controlled.
since you got me started on politics ... I agree wholeheartedly. ISIS declared Raqqah to be their capital and HQ several years ago. What did the US and the rest of the world do? Absolutely NOTHING. Finding the terrorists is more than half the battle and they told us where they were. Obama is useless and clueless as a commander-in-chief - but what can you expect of a junior senator from Illinois with no international relations experience. Either Obama does not listen to his advisors or that which he receives, is very poor intelligence and/or consul.
agree ... professional soldiers wear a UNIFORM!!!
PS to Brighton,
Not that I know any more than you or anyone else on the future direction of SUNE, but I bought at 3.5 and will add at 2+/-
I am also willing to take a risk (based upon the risk-reward scenario of $0 or 20-30) and wait a few years on this because OIL will eventually go back up in price and the alternative energy sector will be a whole new ballgame.
here is my two cents worth to you ... I do not know your cost basis or if this is a taxable account (non-retirement) and you have an unrealized loss of 42k, why not buy at $2-$3 the same # of shares that you currently hold. Wait 30+ days and sell the shares with the high cost basis. While this may be throwing good money after bad, at least you have offset some capital gains while maintaining a long position. If the stock goes back to 20, 30, etc., you will have made a very smart move. If it goes BK, well, that's the risk taken when there is a 1000%+ potential gain.
I could not hold back anymore and bought stock at 3.50 yesterday. I have another buy order in at 2.5 and will add below 2 if we see those levels. All I can say after several years as a stockholder and after reading these 'debates' is that someone has it very RIGHT or very WRONG. I hope it's the latter.
I also bought in the $3 - $4 range a few years ago and sold all but 50 shares from 15 up to 30+. I didn't buy today ...yet... but seriously looking to do so <$5. I won't be shocked if this gets down to $3 with some tax-loss selling in Nov-Dec. That's my two cents worth.
The order is in at .0525 for a spec trade.
exactly ... and justification from the hedge fund with long position isn't incentive enough for me ... I'll wait for the tax loss selling in November & December to reinstate a position.
Thanks for the idea and I am also a contrarian ... however, what will turn around the (HUGE) declining revenue picture? I do not know the answer to my own question, but this will trade down to cash value or lower ... unless something positive occurs.
will it break $5 before the run back up ... that is the question.
also, thank you for your research and analysis. I know more about SUNE now and I bought the stock over two years ago.
waiting for a break below 5 for re-entry. maybe it never happens, but the probability for this occurring is the same as a return to 30. No explanation other than technicals.
I will be buying puts on VXX & VIX (again) on the next spike up (above 30 & 37 respectively). This is simply trading on volatility and typical market craziness. This will blow over as in the past ... hopefully after I open these positions ... and then down again they will go.
in this example, I think you meant ... NOT re-investing dividends
I will wait until December ... tax loss selling and more data.
1- Sorry, but investors will respond negatively in the short-term
2- Looking simply at historical data, this will not be good for investors in the short & long-term
3- I hope VRNG is the exception, but I do not have that level of confidence
Last, as an owner of VRNG, I hope that I am completely wrong, but my cost basis is even lower than where the stock is today.
that's what I thought about Obama ... an Illinois senator with NO leadership and management experience.
you meant to say Obamian ... :-)
I remember him from 1994 and his track record is mixed. He and Harry Dent did presentations for Morgan Stanley where I was working in the 90's. You are also correct about their revenue stream ... books, publications, speaking engagements, etc.
I was waiting for a decline below 10 to get back in but it did not happen. I have been selling my position since it broke 20 through 30+. I am still on the fence regarding a buy back due to the complicated deals and financial engineering.
Do you conclude the shareholders on ANRZQ will get $0 and be wiped out?
I have avoided this for a year but now it is getting interesting. I just got an alert and see it at .18. Does this have ANY chance for success in the next year or so? I have no idea!!!
Anthony, you sold your position and looks like you did the right thing. But at some price point, the risk vs. reward ratio has to warrant a highly speculative buy. It is just a question of price - any thoughts on this? .15, .10, .05?