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John Naccarelli

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  • Although Quicksilver Resources And Forest Oil Are On A Razor's Edge, They Aren't Undervalued At The Current Levels [View article]
    Author, I read your profile ... you state that you average a 50-100% return per year. Why are you not managing money professionally rather than writing articles on SA for chump change? If I averaged that type of return, I would be selling my expertise for top dollar.
    Apr 14 11:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Although Quicksilver Resources And Forest Oil Are On A Razor's Edge, They Aren't Undervalued At The Current Levels [View article]
    author, are you short FST or KWK or intend to short either and/or both?
    Thanks for the analysis.
    Apr 14 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Fleckenstein And 'Bearology,' Buy Stocks Now [View article]
    you will be correct ... but not in 2014 :-(
    Mar 29 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers: Excellent Business At A Fire Sale Price [View article]
    Great article and I went long in Feb after it was crushed to the low 20's. However, I did not add to the position when it broke 20 and went to 19.50. That little voice inside me told me to hold off to see if it breaks down to the 16's. Based upon the author's same concern of the 1Q report and further downside, I'll wait and see.
    Intangible Valuation> I hope you follow up at the end of April, whether the results are good or bad.
    Mar 29 08:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget Fleckenstein And 'Bearology,' Buy Stocks Now [View article]
    it is your opinion that gives me conviction that the market is still going higher this year. When someone like yourself and many others are so convinced that the opposite will occur RIGHT NOW, that is evidence enough for me to hold. I still have about 15% or so in cash and I buy/add on dips and lighten up again when the market has another surge.
    You could of course be right, but I am providing an alternative to your view and the BUY, BUY, BUY attitude.
    Mar 28 09:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Herbalife A Pyramid Scheme? A Simple Question Of Law [View article]
    I think it is 'borderline' stock manipulation and the future scares me with this type of action. They key is whether the 'research' , statements, conclusions, etc. are genuine and/or whether it was intended to be a smoke screen to incite doubt, panic, etc. Let's be clear, we all know that this is not done for the common good and only to line their pockets and those of their investors.
    This behavior is another issue for the SEC. I believe that Ackman is on shaky ground but proving intent and getting to the real truth is difficult. Pandora's box is already open with these hedgies and their behavior. It will be hard to prove whether the research was always intended to be completely accurate or to incite selling.
    What if I short sell a stock and then commit a criminal act, such as poison a food product, crash a plane, sink a ship, cause an oil leak, blow up a pipeline, sabotage a rig, ... you get the idea. It is extreme behavior but accomplishes the same thing.
    Not to bring up a another issue but I am still waiting for a full disclosure from 9/11 related to those that reaped fortunes from shorts as a result of the tragedy. Someday, that info will be exposed but probably not in my lifetime.
    Money is powerful driver of human activity and behavior.
    Mar 27 10:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different [View article]
    author, based upon your comments, are you long RSX or another Russia ETF?
    Mar 25 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different [View article]
    i'm in your camp. I continue to read articles like this to get a sense of the bearish arguments. I just don't sense the emotion and froth that you get near a top. There is still too much doubt and not enough conviction in this market for it to be a top. I do not see enough justification for ridiculous valuations and projections for even more ridiculous valuations. There has been no 'bear' capitulation with a lot of cash inflows ... yet but it will come again. That's when we will be at or near the top.
    Mar 25 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different [View article]
    true ... but not yet
    Mar 25 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Screamin' And Yellen Higher Rates Are Comin': Part II: Get Your Portfolio Ready With Bank Loan ETFs [View article]
    there are open-ended mutual funds that have been around a long time like the one I own - OOSAX. It is clearly a best-in-breed floating rate fund. Unfortunately, they have been changing the fee structure for the past year because I can only assume that the demand is there in this market. I would not buy any front-end loaded fixed income fund and no one can justify to me that doing so makes any sense.
    The management of these funds is the key and that is why OOSAX has done so well for so long.
    I completely agree with the author and the thrust of the article which is to buy floating rates in a rising interest rate environment. I stopped looking after I started in OOSAX but there are other options.
    Mar 24 08:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeropostale: Our Top 2014 Pick For A Unique Short Covering Rally [View article]
    to the Author, CDM Capital, where do you stand now that ARO is hitting 11-yr lows? Are you sticking with LONG recommendation, or have the shorts driven you out of your position?
    Mar 17 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NII Capital Junk Bonds Yielding Over 28% [View article]
    That is probably accurate, but based upon some quick analysis, BV is no longer in the 7-8 range or close to it. I am not using this as justification to buy/sell the stock with all the other factors and everything else happening at the company.
    Mar 16 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NII Capital Junk Bonds Yielding Over 28% [View article]
    the debt or equity? But based upon the debt structure or payback, I am not sure that there will be much difference if there is a default or bankruptcy.

    I look at risk-reward ratios and certainly there is a risk of 100% loss, but what is the probability of that event. What are your potential rewards and the probabilities? There are many possible outcomes and there are far more negative ones than positive. That's the difficult analysis and based upon the author's reply above, he has thrown in the towel on the bonds.

    Thankfully, I still have not touched the debt or equity for several months now and watched the steady decline. If I were you I would call the company as a shareholder and speak to someone in investor relations and ask some tough questions. Don't expect anything substantive because they will provide no future guidance ... but get a read on the person's emotions, attitude, state-of-mind, etc. Remember, if they are depressed in the C-suites and things are dire, it will filter down through the rest of the organization. Sorry, but I have no other advice or thoughts.
    Mar 15 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeropostale: Our Top 2014 Pick For A Unique Short Covering Rally [View article]
    you still have one week so I'll keep my fingers crossed. I looked smart with my 5.95 purchase for about 5 minutes.
    Mar 14 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeropostale: Our Top 2014 Pick For A Unique Short Covering Rally [View article]
    OK, I have been waiting for the past month or so for this earnings release and glad that I did so. However, I decided to pull the trigger today and did so at 5.95. I did a half position because I am probably catching the falling knife. I have no strong feelings or indicators to prove that we are at the bottom, so I am speculating now. We had over 30MM shares traded already today and maybe we'll get to 40MM by the close.
    Mar 14 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
176 Comments
140 Likes