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John Overstreet  

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  • Oil prices are headed higher, two top investors say [View news story]
    Pickens has repeatedly been wrong about predicting prices. As oil dropped last year, it smashed through every floor he laid out and nearly faster than he could lower his estimates.

    Nov 5 2014; oil won't fall below $70
    http://bloom.bg/1UOrV2c
    Jul 11, 2015. 01:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Stephen, if my comment was a personal attack, then I apologize and urge you to report my comment immediately. In my experience, Seeking Alpha has zero tolerance for abusive comments. You mysteriously quoted a source called "MarketCycle", and I quoted it back.

    It is a truism to say bear markets follow bull markets. It is like saying night follows day, when night is the absence of day. Likewise, I don't know if I agree that "business cycles repeat". Certainly, if they exist, they repeat. I think that is the definition of a cycle. I don't know how you define "business cycle" in this context, however. Business cycles defined as trough-to-trough or trough-to-peak aren't very cyclical. Your techniques are proprietary, as you say, so perhaps you cannot elaborate on your alternative view on this matter of what they tell us about the future.

    I'm not sure how you read my article to say that 'markets go up and then they go down'. Rather, in all of my articles this year, I have emphasized the relationships between cycles in different variables and relationships between various supercycles and the relationships between cycles and supercycles and what they tell us about market conditions.

    More generally, I don't understand your overall criticism. You are damning me for being a cyclist, which I'm not, and yet your MarketCycle quotes (I reproduce them below in case my previous comment is deleted) are naively cyclical.

    "'Market cycles can not only be observed, their patterns are repetitious enough to be traded.' MarketCycle’s clients profit by exploiting this opportunity."

    "MarketCycle understands the markets and we understand the bull and the bear market and business cycles and how tops and bottoms are formed. There is no one else using our unique and proprietaray [sic] methods of investing."

    Perhaps some confusion comes from the fact that I make reference to Kondratieff Supercycles? If so, I would point out that I did not predict markets from the Supercycles but rather predicted the Supercycle itself. Thus, the title.
    Jul 11, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Thanks, ConGa95054,

    I am not sure the disconnect is really an ignorance of statistics. I think it is a psycho-social issue, if I can use that term here. Or, maybe it's simpler to say that the problem is one of paradigms. People generally cannot accept facts that disrupt their paradigm and in economics we have an abundance of paradigms and an absence of facts. It's not so much that they reject my claims about the future as it is that they reject my interpretation of the past. And, I think in this case, if the historical correlations at the cyclical and supercyclical levels do exist, they will tend to be judged as either disruptive to our beliefs about markets or written off as coincidence. Not only is the latter choice easier, it is also backed by vested interests, by which I mean political parties, think tanks, academics, banks, advisors, journalists, and whatever other experts there are who have been tapped to explain the markets to the broader society.

    At least, that's how I read the knowing winks, harrumphing, and pejoratives in the negative comments. For them, there's not much they can say, because that's the nature of a paradigmatic rift. As far as they're concerned, I might as well argue that the moon is made of cheese.
    Jul 11, 2015. 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil prices are headed higher, two top investors say [View news story]
    Jan 2016: $85
    Jul 11, 2015. 02:15 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Markets Surge As Greece Blinks First [View article]
    They did back in 2012-3, just as PM markets were tanking. PM prices tend to move with production levels of basic commodities, so it appears that as the emerging market story of the 2000s was coming to a sudden end, Chinese started buying up gold and silver.
    Jul 10, 2015. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Markets Surge As Greece Blinks First [View article]
    Europe is alive and well. Every time voters reject a treaty or an agreement, Europe finds a way to turn that frown upside down.

    Or, maybe NAI really does mean NO and OXI means YES?
    Jul 10, 2015. 08:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Oh, ad hominem, argument from authority, and then straw man.

    Historical cycles suggest that these sorts of exchanges are over before they begin, so I will respectfully withdraw at this point.
    Jul 9, 2015. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Hi, Broken Clock, that's a good question. China's stock market shot up while the dollar strengthened, which is a little odd, but the inverse correlation between dollar index strength and emerging market returns really only holds for longer periods of time. I am keeping my eye primarily on nickel prices. I wouldn't count on a sustainable boom in EMs until I saw a convincing revival in nickel and other base metals.

    In the context of this article, I am nervous about global markets in a period of persistent, universal disinflation, even if they should outperform the US, not only because returns might be low, but if the 1930s were any guide, there might be a good deal of geopolitical fragmentation. I think there is some question about the sustainability of the post-WWII monetary system in such a scenario, and I wonder if the Greek default revolt presages a more fundamental challenge to the American order. Those are not predictions, though, just worries.
    Jul 9, 2015. 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    This seems disingenuous, Stephen.

    Elsewhere, you say...
    "'Market cycles can not only be observed, their patterns are repetitious enough to be traded.' MarketCycle’s clients profit by exploiting this opportunity."

    And,
    "MarketCycle understands the markets and we understand the bull and the bear market and business cycles and how tops and bottoms are formed. There is no one else using our unique and proprietaray [sic] methods of investing."

    My techniques are all on the table and readers are free to make up their minds on their own.
    Jul 8, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    My pleasure!
    Jul 8, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Is your point that wisdom is to be found in good astrology? Or in fortune cookies? :-)
    Jul 8, 2015. 03:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Cautionary is, I think, the best word to describe this article. There's no guarantee that historical patterns will continue to manifest themselves in the future, but one ought not be surprised if they do.
    Jul 8, 2015. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    There's not much I can add to what you've said, Tsunama. The curious thing about this boom is that it has primarily occurred during a period of profound pessimism, not exuberance. Now that the fear of a 2009 style crash has evaporated, I think it's an indication that we're nearing the end. Thanks for reading!
    Jul 8, 2015. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Glad you liked it!
    Jul 8, 2015. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Kondratieff Supercycle Will Unfold Over The Next Decade [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, Durwood. I am not sure what sort of manipulation you are referring to precisely. I believe that the sorts of factors and relationships I have focused on here are too broad to be manipulated on such a scale as to make a long-term difference, however.
    Jul 8, 2015. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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