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John P. Reese

 
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  • 3 Buy-And-Hold Strategies That Beat The Market-Timers [View article]
    Maybe I should have made this more clear, but when I'm talking about buy-and-hold, I'm not talking about just buying a stock and holding it forever. I buy stocks using fundamental and financial criteria, and then sell when a stock doesn't meet those criteria anymore (and I replace it with a new stock that does). I was talking more about sticking to a long-focused strategy for the long term, and not trying to jump in and out of the market based on short-term factors.
    Apr 4, 2013. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Way to Find Value [View article]
    Yes, we've had some pretty big winners from that list. Thanks for pointing that out, UbuTranscendent!
    Mar 5, 2013. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Too Much Portfolio Watching Is Hazardous -- And Unnecessary [View article]
    The Validea system is focused on identifying individual stocks, not ETFs, but if I were forced to choose one or two value ETFs it would probably be the Vanguard Mid-Cap Value ETF and the Vanguard Small Cap Value ETF.

    http://bit.ly/15nFwTC

    http://bit.ly/XfoYv8
    Mar 1, 2013. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Too Much Portfolio Watching Is Hazardous -- And Unnecessary [View article]
    PSR is the price/sales ratio, which is determined by dividing market cap by trailing 12-month sales.
    Feb 27, 2013. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal Cliff Creates Dividend Bargains [View article]
    Yes, I screen for stocks on Validea.

    http://www.validea.com
    Jan 21, 2013. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fiscal Cliff Creates Dividend Bargains [View article]
    The pipeline and generic competition is indeed important for a company like AZN. But I would note that those factors are to a large degree already baked into share prices for such firms. The market isn't expecting a lot from the company, so it doesn't need to produce gangbusters growth for its stock to rise -- it just needs to do a little better than expected for its shares to notch some nice gains. When you consider the firm's other strong fundamentals, my strategies think it's a good bet.
    Dec 27, 2012. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gurus Get Luxurious [View article]
    Hi Correctamundo,

    Thanks for reading and for your comments. The cash flow figure is cash flow from operations, and the market mean is a per share average of the S&P 500. Hope that helps.
    Sep 14, 2012. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Validea: Pick Stocks Like Buffett, Graham and Lynch [View article]
    This is now only on Validea.com. Seeking Alpha shut down the app program. If you have any questions, you can email me directly or at info@validea.com. Thanks.
    Aug 27, 2012. 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Graham, Lynch, And Other Gurus' Strategies Have Quadrupled The Market Since '03 [View article]
    Yes, it is the defensive investor.

    The 20 years of continuous dividends would make it so no companies would ever pass model, and the sales criteria would probably be closer to the $500M adjusted for inflation, you are right, but that is probably a small issue in terms of those companies that pass / fail and make it into the portfolio itself.
    Aug 15, 2012. 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Graham, Lynch, And Other Gurus' Strategies Have Quadrupled The Market Since '03 [View article]
    Here a a few Seeking Alpha articles that summarize my implementation of the Graham value model. The last link shows how I've captured the strategy on the Validea site.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Validea Graham Guru Analysis (on the site you can analyze about 6,000 stocks using this model along with 11 other guru-based strategies)

    http://bit.ly/Pcxoz5
    Aug 15, 2012. 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Graham, Lynch, And Other Gurus' Strategies Have Quadrupled The Market Since '03 [View article]
    Serenity,

    On Validea I run 10 and 20 stock model portfolios that are comprised of the top stocks according to each strategy.

    http://bit.ly/S4MEf2

    We track portfolios using three re-balancing frequencies - monthly, quarterly or annually. Using the monthly re-balancing as an example, the 10 stock Graham portfolio holds the highest scoring securities based on our implementation of the Graham model as of the last re-balancing. On the next monthly re-balancing, which will take place on 8/31/12, we will sell some of the stocks (those that have fallen in score) and replace those stocks with higher scoring securities. There are a few practical issues, like added liquidity filters (to ensure we are not adding ultra small or micro cap securities) as well as a consistent methodology on how we break ties when stocks get the same score from a particular method, but hopefully this gives you a good overview of how I've implemented the strategies an active portfolio management system.
    Aug 9, 2012. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Stock-Pickers Can Learn From The NFL Draft [View article]
    Thanks for the comments, C.O. -- interesting points. There certainly is randomness and luck in both sports and the stock market, particularly over the short term. And whether it's with one particular stock or one particular player, anything can happen, not matter how much homework you do.

    But I think that with investing, history has shown that certain approaches have very good long-term track records. That doesn't mean those approaches are always going to work or that they'll work on every pick -- no investor or strategy will ever do that. But I believe that using those strategies in a very disciplined way far more often than not lets you pick more winners than losers (which over the long haul leads to significant outperformance of the market). That's not randomness; it's using data and statistics to tilt the odds in your favor.

    As for the time periods over which performance is measured, you're right -- that's somewhat arbitrary, and after three years Eli did look like a really questionable pick. And sure, you can point to all sorts of factors, including luck, that have led to the SB wins. But to me the broader point there as it relates to investing is that the Giants had conviction that their evaluation of him was a good one, and thus allowed him time to develop, and there's no doubt that he has become a very good QB. Similarly, an investor needs to give what he or she believes to be a good strategy time to work. Too many people bail on a good, proven strategy because it struggles for a while, and they end up buying high and selling low. Again, that doesn't mean that a good stock-picking system or drafting approach will always pick winners, but I think it does tilt the odds in your favor if you stay disciplined and rational and don't react emotionally to the short term.

    Anyway, thanks for the comments, and good luck to you too!

    JR
    May 29, 2012. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High-Yield Stocks That Offer More Than Just Dividends [View article]
    No imagining or hats necessary. All the fundamental data comes from Reuters, and the numbers seem to be confirmed by Capital IQ, Morningstar, Bloomberg.
    May 8, 2012. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Be A Growth Investor - And A Value Investor [View article]
    I use the O'Shaughnessy-based Guru Strategy screener that is available through my web site, Validea.com. The site runs fundamental data for thousands of stocks through about a dozen different strategies I've developed, each of which is based on the approach of a different investing great, including O'Shaughnessy. Here's a link if you'd like to check it out:

    http://bit.ly/nxwq8f

    If you have any questions, feel free to drop me a line.
    Sep 27, 2011. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Be A Growth Investor - And A Value Investor [View article]
    I'm using the NYSE:PBR adrs. I think the issue is that Petrobras provides payouts in dividends and "interest on own capital". In 2011, it's made five payouts, according to its web site (http://tinyurl.com/5uv...), but four are classified as interest on own captial. Yahoo Finance seems to only be using the one labeled as a dividend, even though shareholders should be getting all five payouts. Hope that helps.
    Sep 27, 2011. 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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