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Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline
- After eleven brutal years on the OTCBB Axion Power International will conduct an initial public offering and graduate to Nasdaq sometime in the next two or three weeks.
- While Axion’s stock has suffered from relentless selling pressure for several years as vulture investors forced shares into an illiquid market, the supply and demand imbalance has finally been resolved.
- Since most fund managers can’t buy or hold OTCBB stocks, the market upgrade will take Axion out of the “retail only” category and facilitate institutional ownership for the first time.
- Axion’s timing is superb because first-tier customers in rail, trucking, automotive and stationary applications are expected to finish multi-year testing programs and make launch decisions within 12 to 18 months.
- My current employer, ePower Engine Systems, has recently explained why the PbC is the best solution for its autonomous hybrid drivetrain that boosts fuel economy in long-haul trucking by 50%.
Is Residential PV Solar More Trouble Than It's Worth?
- The electrons generated by residential PV solar systems are green, but the electric current they send to the grid is intermittent, unreliable and generally filthy.
- Since residential PV solar system owners aren't required to pay the hidden costs of intermittency abatement, their systems increase electricity costs for everybody else.
- Preferential tariffs and net metering schemes compound the problem by under-charging residential PV solar owners for their utility's infrastructure.
- Investment tax credits for residential PV solar systems are patently unreasonable, because the future economic benefits of the investment aren't taxed at all.
- While regulatory structures, billing practices and tax regimes will change because they must change, grid-scale energy storage will be a crucial part of the solution.
Grid-Scale Energy Storage; Why Working Capacity And Cycle Duration Matter
- Over the last six years, industry and government have spent billions demonstrating the technical merit of using manufactured energy storage systems for grid-scale applications.
- Industry analysts forecast that annual revenues from sales of grid-scale energy storage systems will grow from about $200 million in 2014 to almost $20 billion by 2023.
- Most investor perceptions of how grid-scale energy storage will evolve are 180 degrees out of synch with the technical and economic realities of energy storage.
- While existing regulations don’t require renewable power producers to pay intermittency abatement costs – the cost of converting unstable current into clean current – it's only a matter of time.
- Investors who want to profit from the emerging energy storage mega-trend must learn to distinguish between sensible business strategies and imagination-fueled speculation.
How Energy Storage Will Help Wind And Solar Power Clean Up Their Act
- An industrialized society cannot function without three critical shared resources – clean water, clean air and clean electric power.
- Wind turbines and solar panels create electrons without air pollution, which makes them very attractive from the perspective of our shared air resource.
- From the perspective of our shared electric power resource, however, the electric current generated by wind turbines and solar panels is filthy because it’s inherently variable and unreliable.
- Prevailing regulatory structures don’t compel wind and solar power producers to pay their own intermittency abatement costs – the cost of converting their filthy electric current into clean electric current.
- As wind and solar power become more widespread, regulatory structures will change to require that renewable power producers pay their own intermittency abatement costs.
Tesla's Q2 Earnings Will Be A Massive Disappointment
- Tesla’s forecast deliveries of 7,500 vehicles in Q2, including 200 leased vehicles, should give it top-line hypothetical revenue of roughly $804 million.
- With a 25.5% gross margin on sales, hypothetical gross profit should come in at about $205 million.
- Non-GAAP research and development costs are expected to ramp by 30% to $88.4 million.
- Non-GAAP selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to ramp by 15% to $111.7 million.
- Therefore, Q2 hypothetical earnings are likely to be less than $5 million, or about $0.04 per share, compared with current consensus estimates of $0.27 per share.
Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce?
- Tesla Motors' planned gigafactory has the potential to reduce cell-manufacturing costs by up to 30% through vertical integration at massive scale, or VIMS.
- VIMS is only profitable in cases where the product will not change in the foreseeable future and the factory owner has an assured market for all production.
- There is no reason to believe electronics manufacturers will revert to “iChubby” product designs to save a couple bucks per unit on batteries imported from the US.
- SolarCity will probably be a customer while it tries to develop markets for energy storage products, but it will need a reliable independent supply chain if it succeeds.
- If Tesla builds a gigafactory in cooperation with battery industry partners, their profit shares will probably absorb the bulk of any manufacturing cost savings.
Why Tesla's 'Not A Recall' Victory Will Crush Q1 Earnings
- On Friday the NHTSA closed its investigation into two battery fires in Model S electric cars from Tesla Motors without requiring a recall.
- Concurrently Tesla announced that it had added titanium and aluminum underbody shields to all cars built after March 6th and would “retrofit the shields, free of charge, to existing cars.”.
- The cost of the additional parts required to protect its battery packs will significantly impair Tesla’s gross profit on a go-forward basis.
- The cost of retrofitting underbody armor packages on 30,000 existing cars will be accrued as a warranty expense in Q1-14, crushing Tesla’s GAAP and hypothetical earnings.
- 3 Billion Reasons Why Tesla's Gigafactory Will Be A Bloodbath
- Axion Power: Out Of The PIPE And Into The Light - Part II
- Axion Power: Out Of The Pipe And Into The Light
- Stationary Energy Storage: Pipe Dream Or Lead-Pipe Cinch?
- Understanding Tesla's Giga-Scale Battery Challenges
- Updating The Impact Of Axion Power's PIPE
- Understanding Tesla's Life Threatening Battery Decisions
- Dissecting Tesla's ZEV Mythology
- Why Long-Range BEVs Are An Economic, Energy And Emissions Abomination
- Tesla's Painful Journey Into The Valley Of Death
- Tesla's New Battery Supply Contract - Trick Or Treat?
- EVs, Solar Panels And Free Lunch Sophistries
- Axion Power: An Extraordinary Nano-Cap Opportunity
- Putting Tesla Motor's Gargantuan Battery Supply Problem Into Perspective
- Why Tesla Had To Repay Its DOE Loan
- Tesla's Crushing Battery Supply Constraints
- Tesla's Non-GAAP Fairy Tale
- Understanding The Mechanics And Incentives In Axion Power's PIPE
- The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze
- Tesla's Q1 Earnings, An Epic April Fools Prank
- Are EV Dreams Going Up In Smoke?
- Why Batteries Are Too Valuable To Waste On Solar Power Integration And Electric Cars
- What Does Tesla's Late Form 10-K Filing Mean For Investors
- Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety
- 8 Breakout Stocks In Energy Storage