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John Petersen

 
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  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline
    Mon, Sep. 22 AXPWD 405 Comments

    Summary

    • After eleven brutal years on the OTCBB Axion Power International will conduct an initial public offering and graduate to Nasdaq sometime in the next two or three weeks.
    • While Axion’s stock has suffered from relentless selling pressure for several years as vulture investors forced shares into an illiquid market, the supply and demand imbalance has finally been resolved.
    • Since most fund managers can’t buy or hold OTCBB stocks, the market upgrade will take Axion out of the “retail only” category and facilitate institutional ownership for the first time.
    • Axion’s timing is superb because first-tier customers in rail, trucking, automotive and stationary applications are expected to finish multi-year testing programs and make launch decisions within 12 to 18 months.
    • My current employer, ePower Engine Systems, has recently explained why the PbC is the best solution for its autonomous hybrid drivetrain that boosts fuel economy in long-haul trucking by 50%.
  • Is Residential PV Solar More Trouble Than It's Worth?
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Jun. 26 CSIQ, SCTY, SPWR 724 Comments

    Summary

    • The electrons generated by residential PV solar systems are green, but the electric current they send to the grid is intermittent, unreliable and generally filthy.
    • Since residential PV solar system owners aren't required to pay the hidden costs of intermittency abatement, their systems increase electricity costs for everybody else.
    • Preferential tariffs and net metering schemes compound the problem by under-charging residential PV solar owners for their utility's infrastructure.
    • Investment tax credits for residential PV solar systems are patently unreasonable, because the future economic benefits of the investment aren't taxed at all.
    • While regulatory structures, billing practices and tax regimes will change because they must change, grid-scale energy storage will be a crucial part of the solution.
  • Grid-Scale Energy Storage; Why Working Capacity And Cycle Duration Matter
    Tue, Jun. 24 ALTI, AXPW, BYDDF 108 Comments

    Summary

    • Over the last six years, industry and government have spent billions demonstrating the technical merit of using manufactured energy storage systems for grid-scale applications.
    • Industry analysts forecast that annual revenues from sales of grid-scale energy storage systems will grow from about $200 million in 2014 to almost $20 billion by 2023.
    • Most investor perceptions of how grid-scale energy storage will evolve are 180 degrees out of synch with the technical and economic realities of energy storage.
    • While existing regulations don’t require renewable power producers to pay intermittency abatement costs – the cost of converting unstable current into clean current – it's only a matter of time.
    • Investors who want to profit from the emerging energy storage mega-trend must learn to distinguish between sensible business strategies and imagination-fueled speculation.
  • How Energy Storage Will Help Wind And Solar Power Clean Up Their Act
    Mon, Jun. 16 ACPW, ALTI, AXPW 148 Comments

    Summary

    • An industrialized society cannot function without three critical shared resources – clean water, clean air and clean electric power.
    • Wind turbines and solar panels create electrons without air pollution, which makes them very attractive from the perspective of our shared air resource.
    • From the perspective of our shared electric power resource, however, the electric current generated by wind turbines and solar panels is filthy because it’s inherently variable and unreliable.
    • Prevailing regulatory structures don’t compel wind and solar power producers to pay their own intermittency abatement costs – the cost of converting their filthy electric current into clean electric current.
    • As wind and solar power become more widespread, regulatory structures will change to require that renewable power producers pay their own intermittency abatement costs.
  • Tesla's Q2 Earnings Will Be A Massive Disappointment
    Thu, May. 8 TSLA 251 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla’s forecast deliveries of 7,500 vehicles in Q2, including 200 leased vehicles, should give it top-line hypothetical revenue of roughly $804 million.
    • With a 25.5% gross margin on sales, hypothetical gross profit should come in at about $205 million.
    • Non-GAAP research and development costs are expected to ramp by 30% to $88.4 million.
    • Non-GAAP selling, general and administrative expenses are expected to ramp by 15% to $111.7 million.
    • Therefore, Q2 hypothetical earnings are likely to be less than $5 million, or about $0.04 per share, compared with current consensus estimates of $0.27 per share.
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce?
    Tue, Apr. 8 TSLA 958 Comments

    Summary

    • Tesla Motors' planned gigafactory has the potential to reduce cell-manufacturing costs by up to 30% through vertical integration at massive scale, or VIMS.
    • VIMS is only profitable in cases where the product will not change in the foreseeable future and the factory owner has an assured market for all production.
    • There is no reason to believe electronics manufacturers will revert to “iChubby” product designs to save a couple bucks per unit on batteries imported from the US.
    • SolarCity will probably be a customer while it tries to develop markets for energy storage products, but it will need a reliable independent supply chain if it succeeds.
    • If Tesla builds a gigafactory in cooperation with battery industry partners, their profit shares will probably absorb the bulk of any manufacturing cost savings.
  • Why Tesla's 'Not A Recall' Victory Will Crush Q1 Earnings
    Sun, Mar. 30 TSLA 476 Comments

    Summary

    • On Friday the NHTSA closed its investigation into two battery fires in Model S electric cars from Tesla Motors without requiring a recall.
    • Concurrently Tesla announced that it had added titanium and aluminum underbody shields to all cars built after March 6th and would “retrofit the shields, free of charge, to existing cars.”.
    • The cost of the additional parts required to protect its battery packs will significantly impair Tesla’s gross profit on a go-forward basis.
    • The cost of retrofitting underbody armor packages on 30,000 existing cars will be accrued as a warranty expense in Q1-14, crushing Tesla’s GAAP and hypothetical earnings.
  • 3 Billion Reasons Why Tesla's Gigafactory Will Be A Bloodbath
    Mon, Mar. 3 TSLA 649 Comments
  • Axion Power: Out Of The PIPE And Into The Light - Part II
    Sun, Feb. 2 AXPW 166 Comments
  • Axion Power: Out Of The Pipe And Into The Light
    Fri, Jan. 31 AXPW 135 Comments
  • Stationary Energy Storage: Pipe Dream Or Lead-Pipe Cinch?
    Wed, Jan. 8 AXPW, ENS, SCTY 152 Comments
  • Understanding Tesla's Giga-Scale Battery Challenges
    Nov. 29, 2013 TSLA 838 Comments
  • Updating The Impact Of Axion Power's PIPE
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 25, 2013 AXPW 194 Comments
  • Understanding Tesla's Life Threatening Battery Decisions
    Nov. 22, 2013 TSLA 1074 Comments
  • Dissecting Tesla's ZEV Mythology
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 17, 2013 TSLA 506 Comments
  • Why Long-Range BEVs Are An Economic, Energy And Emissions Abomination
    Nov. 13, 2013 TSLA 427 Comments
  • Tesla's Painful Journey Into The Valley Of Death
    Nov. 7, 2013 TSLA 417 Comments
  • Tesla's New Battery Supply Contract - Trick Or Treat?
    Nov. 1, 2013 TSLA 485 Comments
  • EVs, Solar Panels And Free Lunch Sophistries
    Oct. 17, 2013 GM, NSANY, VLKAY 426 Comments
  • Axion Power: An Extraordinary Nano-Cap Opportunity
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 15, 2013 AXPW 428 Comments
  • Putting Tesla Motor's Gargantuan Battery Supply Problem Into Perspective
    Sep. 6, 2013 TSLA 1202 Comments
  • Why Tesla Had To Repay Its DOE Loan
    Sep. 1, 2013 TSLA 501 Comments
  • Tesla's Crushing Battery Supply Constraints
    Aug. 26, 2013 TSLA 759 Comments
  • Tesla's Non-GAAP Fairy Tale
    Aug. 9, 2013 TSLA 1089 Comments
  • Understanding The Mechanics And Incentives In Axion Power's PIPE
    Editors' Pick • Jul. 26, 2013 AXPW 230 Comments
  • The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze
    May. 22, 2013 TSLA 817 Comments
  • Tesla's Q1 Earnings, An Epic April Fools Prank
    Apr. 25, 2013 TSLA 624 Comments
  • Are EV Dreams Going Up In Smoke?
    Mar. 28, 2013 GYUAF, MSBHF, MMTOF 286 Comments
  • Why Batteries Are Too Valuable To Waste On Solar Power Integration And Electric Cars
    Mar. 10, 2013 AXPW, NSANY, NSC 752 Comments
  • What Does Tesla's Late Form 10-K Filing Mean For Investors
    Editors' Pick • Mar. 3, 2013 TSLA 311 Comments
  • Tesla's Obscenely Expensive Cure For Range Anxiety
    Feb. 15, 2013 TSLA 1028 Comments
  • 8 Breakout Stocks In Energy Storage
    Jan. 22, 2013 ACPW, AXPW, ENS 130 Comments