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John Petersen  

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    I can explain these things to you but I can't understand them for you. I do, however, wish you the best of luck in life.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    I've discussed them at length in other articles and am far too busy to custom craft a remedial course for somebody who wants to be spoon fed. I've already explained my reasoning. Now its up to you to expend effort if you want to understand it.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Before six sigma was chosen as a pithy name for an engineering toolbox is was a statistical concept associated with six standard deviations from the mean.

    Fortunately I studied statistics before Bill Smith and Jack Welch muddled the linguistic waters.

    In finance six sigma events are also referred to as black swans. The mere fact that you don't understand the significance of a term doesn't mean my use of the term is either glib or improper.
    Sep 3, 2015. 01:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Raw materials inventory is never burdened with overhead. It's carried at cost.

    Work in process and finished goods inventories do carry a share of the overhead incurred while the work was being done, but it's typically a modest percentage of the whole.

    If you want to lecture on GAAP accounting it's best to understand it first.

    In the June 30th 10-Q, Axion reported total inventories of $1.004 million including $558K of raw materials; $656K of work in process, $69K of finished goods and ($280 K) of inventory valuation adjustments.
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    I've never seen anything like it. With rare exceptions, PIPE financing is a lot like peeing on an electric fence. A management team may do it once, but the experience is invariably a life changing event. In my view the 2014 financing was the equivalent of peeing on a 150 kW generator.

    Markets are funny creatures. Legacy stockholders like me may have taken a 1:1,750 beating, but the guys who bought the 1 for $1.05 are doing just fine.
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    The current collectors in ALL lithium-ion batteries are aluminum and copper foils that are spiral wound with separators.

    Recycling lead-acid batteries is a cash-flow positive activity, In fact it's a major profit center for the big lead-acid battery producers. It is also far cheaper than mining new lead even though proven global lead reserves are enormous.

    Elemental abundance and crustal content are meaningless percentages when a material has to be mined and refined. Unless a material is readily available in concentrations that permit cost-effective mine development, it's worthless. Every once in a while you'll read about the huge mineral deposits in places like Afghanistan. The problem in all those cases is that the value of the minerals in place is not sufficient to pay the hard costs of building required infrastructure and separating the valuable minerals.

    It's really easy for the inexperienced to assume a world of plenty because that's what we all grew up with, but the illusion is the epitome of foolishness on a resource constrained planet with a rapidly increasing population. I've written extensively about global resource constraints and argued ad nauseum with readers who don't care enough to study the issues and actually think about the challenges. It's unreasonable to expect me to revisit those issues in the comments to a year-old article.
    Sep 3, 2015. 12:33 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    LAB recycling has come a long way in the last 50 years, and while any smelting operation is vile, there's a new player in town named Aquametals (AQMS) that's using new electrochemical techniques that promise a much cleaner and more cost effective future.

    Like it or not, we are decades away from cost effective lithium-ion battery recycling.

    Axion's 2013 PIPE offering was stupid. The structure of the B Warrants in its 2014 offering was six-sigma stupid.

    Since I know of no way to predict the stupidity of others, I can't and won't accept responsibility for that stupidity.
    Sep 3, 2015. 10:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    Lithium is not and has never been the primary metals issue. The issue is all the other metals and materials required to make a functional battery. Think copper, cobalt and all the other materials that have thousands of alternative uses in a world that has two, three or even four times the population it had when you were born.
    Sep 3, 2015. 06:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    I have no investment thesis for Axion and haven't had one since last fall when I came to grips with the six-sigma stupidity of the B warrant structure. My only real interest at this point is having future access to a promising battery technology that may be useful in ePower's business.
    Sep 1, 2015. 08:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    I didn't say I was right. I said it was the only explanation that made sense to me.

    Supply and demand inflections manifest themselves over a period of several weeks or months. A single trading day is meaningless; just like most of your comments.
    Sep 1, 2015. 06:01 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Axion's June 30 balance sheet included a derivative liability of $2.2 million relating to the B Warrants that remained unexercised at June 30th. When those warrants are exercised, that $2.2 million balance will move out of the liability section and into the equity section of the balance sheet. Since it appears that the Bs have already been exercised, the starting equity number is about $2.8 million, as opposed to the $0.6 million figure you're obsessing over.
    Sep 1, 2015. 12:58 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    With and 6.6 million shares traded so far today and only 3.5 million shares outstanding, the market action strikes me as too violent for a "news" driven event.

    The only explanation that really makes sense to me is the elimination of sell side pressure from former holders of B Warrants.
    Aug 31, 2015. 03:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    I've seen no news and heard no rumors. At this point the only explanation I can offer is a stabilization of the supply and demand imbalance I've been talking about for years.
    Aug 31, 2015. 02:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    I didn't say if could be damaging if made public. I said we weren't ready to discuss some of the matters publicly. ePower is trying to raise money, but I don't believe for a minute that anything I publish on SA will contribute to the cause. Before Axion's financing decisions got six-sigma stupid the Concentrator participants were a natural affinity group. That dynamic no longer exists.
    Aug 31, 2015. 09:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 403: August 19, 2015 [View instapost]
    Jay's most recent letter includes a couple of disclosures that we want our existing stockholders to know about but are unwilling to discuss publicly. Everybody who has a right to know what's going on does.
    Aug 31, 2015. 06:30 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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