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John Petersen

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    The average round-trip AC to AC energy efficiency of the Ultrabattery installation was 81.5% which strikes me as low, but may not be given the inherent losses arising from an AC to DC conversion for charge cycles and a DC to AC conversion for discharge cycles.

    ISTR reading somewhere that the round-trip efficiency of the PbC was a good deal higher, but that may have been a DC to DC number rather than an AC to AC number.
    Apr 18 07:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    Customer demand is interesting but without big sustained earnings, and I don't mean fairy tale non-GAAP earnings, Tesla will not be able to repay or refinance the debt when it comes due.
    Apr 18 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    The $1 million in junior notes matures 24 months after the original issue date, or May 7, 2015. While they can be converted earlier, I don't see any particular advantage for Axion to pay the notes early unless it finds itself wallowing in piles of cash.
    Apr 18 05:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Your estimates are very close to mine, if not scary close to mine. Let's hope we're both right.
    Apr 17 10:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    Companies that borrow money they can't repay end up in bankruptcy court, it already happened to A123, Ener1 and Valence Technologies, the EV stars of 2009. Tesla is just doing it bigger. The outcome is unlikely to be different.
    Apr 17 10:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Any time you license a technology from somebody you assume a legal duty to use reasonable commercial efforts to effectively commercialize it. If you don't do that, your licensor can sue for damages. Likewise, the ARRA grant specifically mentioned the Ultrabattery and while Exide was willing to play fast and loose with the DOE, East Penn is far more honest.
    Apr 17 09:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    The purpose of the filing is to update the old registration statement so that it only applies to the common stock underlying the PIPE warrants.
    Apr 17 09:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    Tesla's total debt at March 31,2014 will be within spitting distance of $4 billion and its stockholders equity will be closer to $400 million. It will owe ten times more than its stockholders own. You can deny these incontrovertible facts all you want but I Need a Bailout is absolutely right.

    As you might expect, I'm really looking forward to dissecting its Q1 report in early May.
    Apr 17 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    East Penn negotiated a commercialization license from CSIRO. It then accepted a $32.5 million ARRA Grant to build an UB factory. If it doesn't take all reasonable steps to realize the commercial potential of the UB technology, two government agencies might have reasonable grounds for a substantial lawsuit.
    Apr 17 07:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    NGS identified the critical number, 221.5 million shares outstanding at 14-Apr-14. It tells me that we have in fact seen the last of the PIPE share issuances and their remaining inventories are running very low.

    The Form 10-K had 205.3 million shares outstanding at 28-Feb-14, so the total issuance for the final two PIPE pre-installment stock issuances on March 1 and April 1 came in at 16.25 million shares. These numbers tie pretty well to my recently revised estimates that 9.3 million shares would be issued in March and 6.7 million would issued in early April.

    I didn't previously share my revised conversion workbook because I was gun shy after missing the "Make-Whole" interest provision and predicting PIPE-end a couple months early. Now that I have this one final data point, I think some might be interested.

    http://bit.ly/1qQSvbf

    I'm really intrigued that the reported FINRA short sales in March and April currently total 16.5 million. If we see very low volume and FINRA short sales plummet, I think we'll know for sure that ZRPSOD is upon us.
    Apr 17 06:36 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EPower's Latest Investor Update [View instapost]
    Given the way heavy trucks use their torque curve, I think we'll probably stay with a drive motor and transmission to maximize efficiency. If we can get the same support from Eaton that we've gotten from Marathon, Unico and Cummins, I won't be surprised to see an Ultra Shift in our third tractor.
    Apr 17 05:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Axion is lead-acid 3.0.

    Flooded is 1.0 and flooded with additives is 1.xx

    AGM is 2.0 and AGM with additives is 2.xx
    Apr 17 04:01 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    Perfect, absolutely perfect!
    Apr 17 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 324: Apr. 17 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    I wouldn't jump too early on that thesis because the PIPErs are limited to 15% of daily volume. Until volume grows to a point where they're not engaging in 1,000 share trades it's hardly worth the trouble, which seems to be the biggest reason the price starts strong in the morning but weakens as the day goes on. The witch will die, but I'll not be dancing and singing until I see single digit FINRA short percentages.

    Yesterday several of the folks I follow on Facebook liked to this page:

    http://on.fb.me/1qOWLIh

    If you replace the word Banker with PIPEr, it expresses my feelings perfectly.
    Apr 17 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 323: Apr. 14 '14: Q4 & EOY 2013 Results & CC; CFO Resigns; David DiGiacinto Joins BoD; PV With Storage Financials; Petersen Worksheet Suggests PIPE Effects Nearing End [View instapost]
    The automakers have to use varying degrees of hybridization to maximize fuel economy. The real dividing line will be the presence or absence of a plug. As long as you don't have a plug, the batteries are simply working as fuel efficiency devices. The second you add a plug, the batteries are working as fuel tank substitutes and that's never going to be economic unless somebody finds and entirely new way to store energy cheaply.
    Apr 17 10:30 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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