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John Petersen

 
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  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    My guess is that the order the market maker got was 200,000 shares at $0.37. If the market maker was able to make a bigger spread by nudging the price for some of those shares up to $0.40 or $0.41, it's merely good business. Market makers are not risk takers. They want to buy wholesale for $0.37 and sell retail for $0.38, $0.39 or $0.40. When somebody wants to sell them a big block, they'll always short all or substantially all of the shares into the market before making the offsetting buy.
    Mar 3 04:26 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    It's more likely that a holder put in a sell order for 200,000 shares on an all or none basis. Based on that order, the Market Maker shorted those shares into the market over several days before covering his short by purchasing the shares from the holder. Market Makers do buy long and sell short every day, but they rarely do either to a significant extent unless they already have the other side of their trade locked in place. Market makers work on the spread – they don't speculate on price action.
    Mar 3 03:51 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    There were a couple papers on the Ultrabattery at last fall's Asian battery conference. You can access the slide presentations here

    http://bit.ly/sJOi0K

    The biggest problem I have with these things is that people tend to pick their own metrics for showing product performance and the presentations are rarely comparable.

    While the BMW-Ford micro-hybrid testing protocol has been out there for a year and a half, the only company that's had the stones to show their performance under that standard is Axion.

    http://bit.ly/mVBVM4
    http://bit.ly/oIU19K
    Mar 3 03:46 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    I've consistently argued against the silver bullet technology mindset.

    I fully expect intense competition from a variety of corners including AGM, the Ultrabattery, AGM-supercapacitor combinations and even lithium-ion.

    In a 39 million vehicle per year market each 5% of market share works out to about $500 million of revenue at an assumed PbC price of $250. We don't need the whole banana for a very successful company. In fact a 5% to 10% market share would make Axion successful beyond my wildest dreams of avarice.

    I'll be more than happy with a small but credible piece of the micro-hybrid market – particularly when you throw in additional niches of comparable size for rail transport and grid applications.

    In the market that's developing around us the problem won't be finding demand, it will be growing fast enough to meet demand.
    Mar 3 03:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    There is absolutely no reason to believe that either relationship is at risk, much less at risk of being terminated. If the relationships were going to fall apart they would have done so in the first 6 to 12 months. When relationships advance to this stage signs of stress start to develop long before a termination. Until you see signs of stress, imagining that something might be wrong is little more than mental masturbation.
    Mar 3 03:24 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    The 2009 offering was sold to investors at $0.57. The $1.37 shown in the registration statement was the market price when the registration went effective. My theory of selling activity over the last two years is that the dueling liquidators drove the price down into the $.60s in April and May and that scared the smaller investors enough that they were willing to take their cash off the table through most of 2010. Given what we know about the source of shares in 2011, I have to believe the smaller investors from 2009 sold somewhere between 1/2 and 2/3 of their positions by the end of last year.
    Mar 3 02:07 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    I'm tend to think that the universe of possible *big sellers* is very small and includes only Black Rock and Manatuck Hill, who have 6 to 7 million shares each.

    Quercus was huge when it had 8.5 million shares and 2010 trading volume was 22 million shares. Now that Quercus' holdings are in the 2.5 million share range and 2011 trading volume was 77.7 million shares, Quercus is little more than a speed bump.

    In the 2009 private placement, Emerging Growth Equities and Philadelphia Brokerage sold 14.4 million shares to 46 client accounts. There were a couple of million share plus investors, but most bought smaller blocks. The average for the 46 smaller buyers was in the 350,000 share range. See page 54.

    http://1.usa.gov/rpxxK9

    If the recent registered direct offering had a similar distribution pattern, there won't be any new big holders to worry about.

    My fun fact for the day is that total trading volume in 2010 was 22,016,900 shares while total YTD trading volume this year is 21,592,400 shares.

    Ownership numbers that were huge last year just don't seem so big any more.
    Mar 3 01:04 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    An old broker friend of mine is fond of observing that stocks have three values – overvalued, undervalued and fairly valued – but they only see fairly valued during a brief moment in time when they're making the transition from one extreme to the other.

    While it's a decidedly minority view, I've come to believe that supply and demand dynamics are far more important than business events when it comes to stock price. They're also far less predictable.

    Axion has had some very major events over the last two years including the June 2010 announcement of a relationship with NS, the September 2010 release of BMW testing information and the November 2011 deployment of the first behind the meter frequency regulation resource in the country. Trying to tie stock price performance to those clearly identifiable important events is tough.

    Over the last two years there have been far too many willing sellers at low prices. Most of the buying has come from the Axionistas who generally have higher expectations. When the last of the willing sellers runs out of stock, the expectations of the Axionistas will become the dominant market force. Until then we wait. Try as I might I have never been able to identify the inflection points in anything but my rear-view mirror.

    http://bit.ly/uzNPG2

    http://bit.ly/xHrjyl

    The choices are simple. Buy while prices are at or near stable bottoms and wait patiently for the inflection points or chase the price at your leisure.
    Mar 3 12:27 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    If you draw a horizontal spectrum of lead-acid battery performance (and per unit cost);

    Flooded lead-acid is at the far left with the poorest performance
    Flooded lead-acid with past additives is next
    AGM is a 10X improvement over flooded lead-acid
    AGM with carbon paste additives is next
    The Ultrabattery is next
    The PbC is a 10X improvement over AGM and situated the far right.

    The Ultrabattery is not technically comparable to the PbC, although it may infringe on the PbC patents. Ecoult is an affiliate of East Penn that was formed to pursue stationary applications. There is a good graphic on their website that shows the differences – http://bit.ly/yslMEi

    A conventional lead-acid battery, with or without carbon pastes, is shown by the device on the upper left. The PbC is shown on the upper right. The Ultrabattery is shown in the bottom center.
    Mar 3 12:22 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentator 72: Beginning Feb 29, 2012 [View instapost]
    An old broker friend of mine is fond of observing that stocks have three values – overvalued, undervalued and fairly valued – but they only see fairly valued during a brief moment in time when they're making the transition from one extreme to the other.

    While it's a decidedly minority view, I've come to believe that supply and demand dynamics are far more important than business events when it comes to stock price. They're also far less predictable.

    Axion has had some very major events over the last two years including the June 2010 announcement of a relationship with NS, the September 2010 release of BMW testing information and the November 2011 deployment of the first behind the meter frequency regulation resource in the country. Trying to tie stock price performance to those clearly identifiable important events is tough.

    Over the last two years there have been far too many willing sellers at low prices. Most of the buying has come from people with higher expectations. When the last of the willing sellers runs out of stock, the expectations of the buyers will become the dominant market force. Until then we languish.
    Mar 3 12:07 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    Typically micro-hybrid systems restart the engine after 60 to 90 seconds to preclude the kind of catastrophic battery depletion that might occur from a series of 5 minute stand-still events in heavy traffic.
    Mar 3 11:13 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 73: Beginning Mar. 2, 2012, Bangwhiz's Article, Selling The PbC Battery - It's Not Easy Being Green!  [View instapost]
    It's unclear whether the smaller starter battery is essential, or a belt and suspenders approach for the automakers. I've seen enough references to a single battery solution that I'm not convinced two batteries are necessary, but I can certainly see how an automaker might think two batteries will improve system reliability. Since several automakers have already gone to dual battery solutions, it's not that big a step.

    It's my understanding that stepping down the voltage of the PbC to a number that's optimal for the hotel load is a simple matter of voltage regulation. It would, however, be very expensive to step the voltage up.

    When a PbC is operated at an 80% SOC which is very typical for micro-hybrid configurations, the voltage of a 16-volt nameplate unit is pretty-much in the sweet-spot range for the hotel loads. It's also the sweet-spot SOC range where the PbC accepts charge fastest. The whole idea with micro-hybrids is that you want to operate them within a fairly narrow SOC band. By and large automakers couldn't care less whether an owner can run his hotel loads for hours.

    There will be no need to retest or redesign any components other than the voltage regulator. BMW exhibited with Axion at the ELBC, not the SAE. They were sending a message to the battery industry, not a plea for help to the auto industry.
    Mar 3 09:47 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Envia Systems – When Hype Becomes Deception [View instapost]
    Envia lied by distorting the Lux Research material. What the Naval Warfare Center did or did not do is irrelevant. You've had your say on Envia. Any further comments from you on this Instablog will be deleted.
    Mar 3 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Envia Systems – When Hype Becomes Deception [View instapost]
    Envia has a SCIENCE FAIR PROJECT, not a PRODUCT. A glorified lab prototype is never HERE and pretending otherwise is insanity. Until it is manufactured at commercial scale and proven its PERFORMANCE, ABUSE TOLERANCE, CYCLE LIFE and COST it is not and cannot be spoken of as a product, unless of course the speaker is a bald faced liar.
    Mar 3 09:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons Why Electric Drive Is Stranded On The Bleeding Edge Of Transportation Technology [View article]
    When the pack is at or near full charge, the BMS keeps the thermal management system operating 24/7. Once the pack gets down around 50% thermal management is apparently less critical.

    I don't know that I'm terribly comforted by the fact that thermal management of a battery pack in a parked car is essential until the pack is at least 50% completed.
    Mar 3 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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