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John Petersen

 
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  • Notes And More From The Axion Shareholders' Conference: Concentrator Two Beginning July 31, 2011  [View instapost]
    The government is not fond of running late and a post-August 15th date would surprise me a lot. It's going to take a few days for everybody to calm down after the debt ceiling drama, but after that one never knows.
    Aug 2 05:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    Subsidizing the consumption of their rich buddies at the expense of the masses did not work out so well for the last individual owners of Versailles.
    Aug 2 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    I typically don't venture out of the battery industry because that's where my expertise lies. I wrote this article because I'm tired of fools telling me how the existing power infrastructure could allow for the painless conversion of 73% of the light vehicle fleet to EVs.

    It's a foolish argument. It ignores the last mile. It assumes that others will voluntarily pay the cost of your toys. In case you haven't heard we got this recession thing going on and Americans are getting poorer not richer. Championing a cause that costs everybody more and gives everybody less may make you feel good, but the other 99% of the population don't agree with your views of how they should live.
    Aug 2 04:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    If you want to pay the price of rebuilding the grid from the ground up so that you can burn coal instead of gasoline in transportation please be my guest. Just make sure you pay the full costs of your foolish choice and don't try to unload them on me, my children or my grandchildren.
    Aug 2 04:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    Until you can intelligently address the last mile problem you can't honestly believe EVs will ever be more than an oddity. Talking with an owner won't change the current carrying capacity of his circuit or mine. It would be a waste of time.

    Since you obviously hear what you want to hear and disregard the rest, take a little free advice. Be sure to be the first EV buyer on your block so that the buyer of the second or third EV can deal with the angry neighbors when he takes the grid down in the neighborhood if he's lucky, the city if he's not so fortunate and the region if he's subject to Murphy's law.
    Aug 2 04:46 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    Will Rogers said "There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."

    I peed on the electric fence for myself when I was young and foolish. You seem determined to do the same. I only worry about the few who can learn from the experience of others and don't feel compelled to make the same mistakes.

    I wish you the best of luck with your investing, which is the only thing I care about.
    Aug 2 04:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    Doesn't that complicate the whole going to work thing a bit since the sun only shines during working hours?
    Aug 2 04:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    I'm amazed at the number of supposedly rational adults who refuse to accept the proposition that the only thing that matters is the last mile.

    Heck, that was always the problem with internet service. How could it possibly be different with electric service which requires an infinitely more robust last mile.
    Aug 2 04:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    You might even get by with a two-cycle motor.
    Aug 2 04:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    Somebody needs to make them at least question their assumptions that have nothing to do with reality.
    Aug 2 03:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    Demand in other parts of the grid are irrelevant. The only thing that matters is the current carrying capacity of the last mile where an EV will be plugged in.

    Liars love averages.

    It's dishonest to talk averages when the issue is what's going to happen when the current carrying capacity of the transmission and distribution facilities in my neighborhood are exceeded.
    Aug 2 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    Look at the graph and pay attention. When plugged in an EV load is equal to the peak summertime load of the average house. You keep thinking in terms of averages and they don't matter when you're looking at electric delivery capacity. The only thing that matters is the maximum current carrying capacity of the distribution network and if you overload that capacity you're going dark.

    I've not claimed that it's static. I have claimed that it has not been built or designed to accommodate portable loads or extreme variability in loads. A neighborhood is easy to plan. Add a couple plug-ins and the plans go to hell in a hand basket.

    When hopium dealers call me a blowhard I take it as a compliment because it means the message is getting through despite the concerted campaign of disinformation, half truths and outright fabrications.
    Aug 2 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and the Excess Grid Capacity Myth [View article]
    There may be a high excess capacity in the grid as a whole but unless there is a lot of excess capacity in the local service the grid is irrelevant. Take another look at the graph, understand what the anticipated peak loads are for a service area, understand what the anticipate minimum loads are for a service area and then do the math.

    It is ugly!
    Aug 2 02:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Notes And More From The Axion Shareholders' Conference: Concentrator Two Beginning July 31, 2011  [View instapost]
    It's not another delay - it's just the exact text of the letter the DOE sent out announcing the last one;-) Double check the date – JUNE 27th.
    Aug 2 11:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aggressive New CAFE Standards: Economic Impact Will Be Immense [View article]
    As a former oil and gas guy I'm very excited about new technologies that make it possible to produce natural gas and light oil from shale formations we considered uneconomic when I was in the business. Since I live about 20 miles from one of Switzerland's older nuclear plants it's clear that nuclear isn't high on my list of worries. America was a titan when it produced its own energy. Then came the 70s when fear of possible oil spills and accidents convinced people that shifting the risks to others and continuing consumption unabated was a sound plan. The long-term impact has been disastrous. I favor every solution that lets America stand on her own two feet without wasting its future.
    Aug 2 11:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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