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John Petersen

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  • Identifying Saviors and Saboteurs in Alternative Energy [View article]
    That's a fascinating calculation as far as it goes, but it also leads to a couple of very wrong conclusions. According to ENRC's spring roadshow, an average 1,500 kg vehicle uses about 30 kg of copper and automobile production already accounts for a whopping 13.3% of total copper global production. You tell us the Tesla's motor requires another 8 kg but forget the copper content of the battery cells (12 kg), the pack that ties them all together (?%) and the control electronics (?%).

    As it happens copper is one of the most useful industrial metals out there and the alternative uses are mind-boggling. Lead, on the other hand is used almost exclusively for batteries and those batteries are almost universally recycled, which lithium-ion batteries will never be.

    If you're going to make numerical comparisons, be complete.
    Jul 16 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Identifying Saviors and Saboteurs in Alternative Energy [View article]
    FWIW, the link's in the second line of the article.
    Jul 16 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    What I'm looking for are companies that are working to improve the basic CF production process. It's been around for a long time but hasn't had the optimization work of many other composite technologies. My only personal experience with CF is a mountain bike I bought in the late 90s that doesn't even have a mechanical pivot for the rear suspension and uses the natural flex of the CF to smooth the ride. The darned thing is feather light, tough as nails and has no problem carrying a "Clydesdale Class" rider like me in some pretty extreme terrain.

    At Geneva this year several of the high end retrofit companies displayed 100% CF bodywork for Mercedes, BMW and a number of more exotic sports cars. The material is far stronger than fiberglass or composites and it's extremely light. The toughest issue seems to be recoil in the event of a collision. BMW's currently working on a 100% CF electric and most of the other automakers are looking hard at trying to make CF cheap enough to replace steel and recover the added cost from fuel savings. It's a tall order, but nowhere near as tall as a cost effective EV.

    If you do a Google search for automakers + carbon + fiber you'll see that the buzz is rapidly escalating as automakers realize that electrification simply isn't going to get the job done and the only real option is cheaper lightweight materials. So while I smell opportunity, I haven't figured out how to play that opportunity yet.
    Jul 16 02:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    Thanks for the heads-up on Zoltek. I'll check them out.
    Jul 16 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    You could be such a useful commenter if you'd just respond to the substance of these articles instead of acting like a paid attack dog for the lithium-ion battery industry. Oh, I forgot, you are a paid PR hack for the lithium-ion battery industry. It's A123 isn't it?

    www.youtube.com/watch?...
    Jul 16 12:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    I've found that criticizing an ideologue's favorite stock is only slightly more offensive than telling him his wife is fat, his kids are ugly and his dog is stupid.

    You can spot them a mile away. They ignore the message and evade the substance at all costs and focus on trying to attack the messenger.
    Jul 16 12:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    Lie is such an ugly word, particularly when the facts are so easy to confirm. I guess this is one of those times when its easier to attack the messenger than it is to deal with the message. I understand that many readers are proponents of the ostrich strategy when it comes to investing. I write for the benefit of those that aren't.

    The Lux Research report is a verifiable fact and there have been several news reports about it over the last several days. The Sandia report is a public document and I've also included a link to it. When I put the two pieces together I see a very good fit that leads me to conclusions I find inescapable. You are free to reach other conclusions.

    I wish you the best of luck with your investing in any event.
    Jul 16 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    I have way too much fun laughing at pompous ideologues to bother with reporting abusive comments. There have been a few cases in the past where I have referred comment streams to Seeking Alpha's editors when I considered them truly offensive, but you need a thick skin to tell unpopular truths and nothing you've added to the conversation fazes me in the least.
    Jul 16 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    I predicted nothing. Lux Research made a forecast and I reported it.

    I happen to agree that lithium-ion batteries are remarkable products in many respects, they're just not economic for the heavy work that ideologues claim they can do. Using lithium-ion batteries to power a car is like using 5,000 hamsters or a couple hundred white bunnies to pull a stage-coach. A similar comparison can be made for grid based applications where the value proposition is even more laughable.

    The Lux forecast is not a death knell for the batteries, which will most certainly find their way into the applications where they work best, but it is a death knell for the manufacturers who have overbuilt capacity planning on automotive and electric grid applications that can't ever materialize because they're hopelessly uneconomic.
    Jul 16 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    You must be the new kid on the block who doesn't bother to backtrack links and get to know an author before offering comment.

    I've never been bullish on the lithium-ion battery sector and have a three-year track record of telling investors that the sector is wildly misunderstood and overhyped.
    Jul 16 12:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    Sandia National Laboratories quantified the opportunities and their economic value. All I did was reorder the government data and put it into a more meaningful form for investors who want to understand the business proposition. It may be the epitome of arrogance for the government to provide reasonable qualitative data, but I tend to think even a bad study is better than being left to an overactive imagination.

    I certainly think that relying on third party data is the responsible thing to do.
    Jul 16 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    The green jobs aspect of lithium-ion battery manufacturing is seriously overrated. Batteries are extremely materials intensive and the bulk of materials, components and manufacturing equipment for lithium-ion battery manufacturing come from foreign suppliers. The domestic labor content of a properly manufactured cell will typically be less than 10% of its cost. I did a calculation last year after a White House puff piece and the capital cost per job was on the order of $500,000 by the time you included both Federal and private money.
    Jul 16 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    You're obviously not reading the same reports I am which have all of the automakers scrambling to source carbon fiber that will be cheap enough for automotive use. Unlike lithium-ion battery manufacturing that's had about a century to mature, CF has been one of those processes that's languished and has significant room for improvement and optimization.

    There were dozens of ultra high end CF cars in Geneva this year. The issue is not and has never been fracture resistance with CF, it's that the material is too elastic and doesn't fracture or crumble easy enough. As I said, I wish I could find a couple of carbon fiber pure plays.
    Jul 15 11:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    You're once again trying to come up with simplistic comparisons of apples and oranges and I've no desire to play your games.
    Jul 15 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    I had not heard about a 50 mpg Cruz, but I'm seeing similar things in Europe with rapidly increasing fuel efficiency in cars like the Jetta. It's amazing what the auto industry can and will do when consumers and governments demand change. I'm confident the pace of change will continue to accelerate, but equally confident the changes will be incremental. Since I've heard nothing about Tesla closing showrooms, I'll refrain from comment at this time.
    Jul 15 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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