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John Petersen

 
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  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    I understand that there many who prefer the ostrich strategy when it comes to investing and are uncomfortable with facts and opinions from credible sources that run contrary to their beliefs, but there are many Seeking Alpha readers who don't think ignorance is bliss.

    When I was just a boy Paul Simon taught us that "A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."

    I wish you the best of luck with your investing.
    Jul 15 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    The stimulus efforts were an end result of an extravagant, carefully orchestrated and masterfully implemented PR effort by a small but very vocal group of economically challenged ideologues. Frankly I have no idea how bad the backlash will be or who will be crushed.

    I went through a similar exercise with biofuels in 2006 and 2007. Since I rarely forget million dollar losses, I know that I don't want to be a stockholder when it happens.
    Jul 15 12:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    The current global lithium-ion battery market is on the order of $10 billion. The new factories will add $20 to $30 billion of new capacity starting next year and most of those batteries won't be suitable for use in portable electronics.

    Lux has forecast an immense oversupply for the next decade. You can believe what you want about the future market and its importance for "national security" or whatever ideology you prefer, but when an outfit with the stature of Lux effectively says "run away and hide" I think a person who cares about his portfolio value should pay attention.
    Jul 15 12:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    ... or something completely different. There are some intriguing ideas being developed by private companies, but it doesn't do any good to talk about them here until they become investments.
    Jul 15 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    We can agree that lithium-ion batteries are a superior choice when size and weight are mission critical and money is no object. Beyond that you've spent far too much time listening to fairy tales about rapid technological advances and falling prices.

    Batteries are wonderful efficiency devices that can prevent wasted fuel from cars idling at stop lights and braking energy that would otherwise be lost to heat and friction. They are not and will never be rational substitutes for a fuel tank.

    If you want energy security, look to compressed natural gas and a Prius-class hybrid drivetrain. I know all about Buffett's investment in BYD. In fact I got criticized roundly by readers like you when I had the temerity to suggest it was overvalued at $11.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Now that the price has fallen to $2.86 my critics have grown mysteriously silent.
    Jul 15 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    No.
    Jul 15 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Identifying Saviors and Saboteurs in Alternative Energy [View article]
    I've already voted my shares in favor of all proposals.

    Both of the director nominees are good hands and Dr. Schmidt is one of the best carbon nanotechnology minds on the planet.

    Axion's authorized capitalization currently stands at 125 million shares. There are 85.5 million shares outstanding, 12.9 million shares reserved for issuance upon exercise of warrants at an average price of $1.17, and 3.6 million shares reserved for issuance upon exercise of stock options at an average price of $1.97. By the time you turn the crank, the maximum number of shares Axion could sell without going back to the stockholders in a special meeting is 23 million. Seeking an additional share authorization in connection with the annual meeting is the only sensible thing for the board to do and its an ordinary course of business item.

    Axion has just received an order of effectiveness for its shelf registration statement for a planned offering of $18 to $28 million. That's the amount of money the board currently believes the company will need. Any excess authorization will be held in reserve until it's needed - just as the 23 million shares have been held in reserve since May 2010 when they were authorized.
    Jul 15 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    I wouldn't underestimate the size of the off-grid storage market by referring to it as a niche. The number of places in the world where wind or solar coupled with storage can make an immense difference in the quality of life for people who've never had access to simple things like lighting and refrigeration.

    For grid-based applications, Vinod Khosla made it clear “You can bring on energy from peaker plants or bring on storage. You know exactly what your competition is." That makes any storage other than pumped hydro a difficult proposition.

    Once you get off grid or behind the meter with a user who demands five to nine nines of power quality, it's another world entirely.
    Jul 15 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    The worst thing about hatchet-job blogs is that they scare away both investors and people like me who are reluctant to take a firm stand when the reliability of a company's SEC reports is called into question. Those kinds of allegations and accusations cut right to the heart of the reporting system and it would foolish for anybody to take a firm position based on anything other than first hand knowledge.

    Until the hatchet articles started flying, ABAT was a favorite because its management seemed to have very tight cost control and an ability to put a product out the door at a good margin. At one point I remember observing that they were too cheap to be cool.

    My sense is that the allegations of impropriety are a tempest in a teapot, but I can't say that I know they're a tempest in a teapot. If ABAT emerges from this mess with a clean slate, people will look at the current price as the deal of the decade. It just takes a lot of steel to make that leap of faith for $1 of downside and $5 to $10 of upside.
    Jul 15 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    I believe the current generation of electric vehicles will die a slow and agonizing death from the congenital birth defects that have doomed every generation of EVs to the scrap heap of history. If an investment depends on the success of vehicle electrification, I think I'd rather go fishing and I hate fishing.
    Jul 15 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    Because it's far more fun to be a voice of reason in a world where PR hype and irrational optimism are destroying portfolios of honest investors who don't know any better. Readers who paid attention have avoided huge losses on companies I criticized and booked big gains on companies I recommended. That's what investment blog sites like Seeking Alpha are for - educating investors who want to understand and are willing to put forth some effort.
    Jul 15 09:23 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Identifying Saviors and Saboteurs in Alternative Energy [View article]
    It's entirely possible to build factories with more capacity than the market will demand in the next decade.

    It's also entirely possible to build factories that need more raw materials than the world's mines can provide.

    I'll make an oblique reference to the porn industry and leave it at that.
    Jul 15 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Storage: A Turbulent Q2 Foretells Major Changes [View article]
    Face it man, you're a hopium addict and the first step in recovery is acknowledging the problem.
    Jul 15 09:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    Lux doesn't focus on resource issues like I do. In fact, they seem to be a lot like you in that respect and simply assume the raw materials will be available in sufficient quantities and at reasonable prices.

    Lux assumes the resources will be available and does market research to establish that there will be a glut of capacity.

    I take Lux one step further and say even if Lux is dead wrong about its demand estimates, the world will not be able to provide enough raw materials to keep all those factories humming along at capacity.

    As near as I can tell your favorite technology is doubly doomed.
    Jul 15 09:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    Paul Simon said it best, "Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."

    I believe the scenario described by Lux is far more probable than the one you describe. You are free to believe whatever you want to believe.

    I wish you the best of luck with your investing.
    Jul 15 09:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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