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John Petersen  

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    If the 10-K is filed by the close of business today it will be timely. My experience with company's that file extensions is spotty at best. Sometimes the issues are simple and things go off without a hitch. When issues are particularly complex, which they may be in this case, 15 days isn't much wiggle room. At this point I don't see any way to accurately predict when the 10-K will be filed. The only short term impact of a failure to file in a timely manner will be the addition of a D to the symbol and the loss of the ability to use Form S-3 until filings have been timely for a year.
    Apr 15, 2015. 10:14 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Truckers Are Slow To Embrace CNG Fuel Systems [View article]
    I'm very surprised that you were able to find all those optimistic representations about ePower from January 2013 when I didn't accept ePower as a client until July of 2013.

    The Instablog I wrote when I accepted ePower as a client is here:

    http://bit.ly/1lsOhkZ

    Quoting alleged comments and alleged dates without providing links is fundamentally dishonest and clear proof of malicious intent.
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    It's absolutely amazing that I could have made all those representations about ePower in January 2013 when I didn't accept ePower as a client until the summer of 2013.

    The Instablog I wrote when I accepted ePower as a client is here:

    http://bit.ly/1lsOhkZ

    Quoting alleged comments and alleged dates without providing links is fundamentally dishonest.
    Apr 15, 2015. 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Truckers Are Slow To Embrace CNG Fuel Systems [View article]
    Asking the same question twice in the same comment stream will not get you a different response.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 14, 2015. 08:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Truckers Are Slow To Embrace CNG Fuel Systems [View article]
    Once a question has been asked and answered several times, obsequious repetition becomes offensive. ePower is taking its drivetrain directly to the customer instead of following the OEM path Axion was forced to take. We'll have to satisfy individual decision makers rather than committees and boards of timid engineers who always want "just one more round of tests."

    We have not performed the kind of concrete block testing you advocate because we believe our customers won't believe anything but the results they get with their cargos on their routes and their drivers. Our marketing strategy has been carefully honed to avoid wasted time, effort and money, and focus instead on getting tractors into the hands of truckers who can then make their own decisions based on their own experience rather than our studies, tests and forecasts.
    Apr 14, 2015. 08:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Truckers Are Slow To Embrace CNG Fuel Systems [View article]
    Once again you're deliberately twisting my words to reach tortured conclusions.

    The heart of the ePower drivetrain is the patented control electronics module and the PbC battery pack. If a customer wants to spring for a brand new engine and transmission, a retrofit will cost him $100,000. If the customer will be satisfied with remanufactured components, the cost will be closer to $70,000. Either way the customer will end up with a drivetrain that saves about 7,000 gallons of fuel per year. The engine and transmission are not the fuel saving devices here, the fuel savings comes from our patented series hybrid architecture.

    We believe the majority of our customers will choose the remanufactured option, but we'll be happy to sell whatever they want to buy.

    We expect to launch our demonstration trials with FedEx Ground later this month and think the results from those trials will be more credible than any data we could generate in house. At this point its up to the drivetrain to prove its merits and I'm more than happy to wait for the results.
    Apr 14, 2015. 07:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Truckers Are Slow To Embrace CNG Fuel Systems [View article]
    Axion's a heartbreaker because their technology development choices were highly successful and their capital markets choices went from inept to catastrophic.

    I always tell clients that becoming a public company means they'll have TWO products instead of one – a physical product they'll have to effectively market and support to generate revenue and a financial product they'll have to effectively market and support to retain access to capital on reasonable terms. The failure to devote adequate time, resources and attention to either is a grave tactical mistake.
    Apr 14, 2015. 06:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    With due respect Rick, I did not know about the insidious nature of the Killer Bs when I wrote that article. Set your wayback machine and look at the facts.

    On September 22nd Axion had just filled a registration statement for a $12 million deal with one plain vanilla warrant.

    http://1.usa.gov/YZG58B

    The offering was downsized and a plain vanilla B warrant was added in early October

    http://1.usa.gov/1usXdiO

    The nasty B Warrant terms didn't surface till a week or so before the offering date.

    I'm guilty of a lack of prescience, but the filing I read and wrote about was far more advantageous to Axion than the deal that ultimately closed.

    I'm really tired of "smart" people who criticize and condemn without considering the calendar.
    Apr 14, 2015. 06:06 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    I write disclosure documents for my clients and advise them during the capital raising process.

    My clients run their own businesses and succeed or fail on their own merits.

    On rare occasions where I accept a management role I accept responsibility for business performance during my tenure, but that responsibility ends when the job ends.
    Apr 14, 2015. 05:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Truckers Are Slow To Embrace CNG Fuel Systems [View article]
    As I've repeatedly explained, our drivetrain is constantly evolving as we work to increase hauling capacity, boost fuel economy and improve on road performance. Test drives to track progress on these crucial metrics are not long-distance affairs. The typical cycle involves a 100 to 200 mile test drive followed by days or weeks in the shop. Since we only have one chance to make a good first impression, we see no benefit in rushing the process.

    The first time you asked was a question. The second time you asked while assuming many inaccurate facts was disingenuous.

    All our published materials discuss plans to build a 10-unit demonstration fleet and rotate those tractors through the hands of potential customers on a monthly cycle with the expectation that each potential customer will log 10,000 and 15,000 miles in our tractor to find out how the drivetrain performs in his business.

    The purpose of the demonstration fleet is threefold.
    • First it will introduce our drivetrain to ~120 different truckers and several hundred drivers over the course of a year.
    • Second it will give us performance data from ~120 fleets who used our tractors to haul their cargos on different routes with different drivers.
    • Third, it should give rise to small volume orders from potential customers who like the drivetrain and want to conduct more exhaustive evaluations.

    After a year of demonstration trials, we'll have reams of credible fuel economy data, over a million miles of system reliability data and the ability to document performance claims that potential customers will respect. It's not going to happen overnight.

    The unfortunate reality is that we can test till we're blue in the face and fleet operators won't care. The only data they'll find convincing is data that they generate, or their competitors generate.

    The trucking industry overhauls somewhere between 250,000 and 400,000 tractors per year. It will take three to five years to collect enough data to move beyond the "innovators" segment of our target market, but that segment alone represents an addressable revenue opportunity of $500 million a year, which is certainly more than we'll be able to say grace over.
    Apr 14, 2015. 05:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    While not directly relevant, the round-trip efficiency of NiMCl batteries like GE's Durathon is typically in the 70% range because of the amount of energy required to maintain battery temperature. Good insulation can only go so far.
    Apr 14, 2015. 05:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    Success for a securities lawyer is measured by clients who raise the money they need to finance their business and don't run into problems with regulators or investors. I rarely accept a management role if given a choice and I always respect the lawyer's duty to protect his client's confidential information. I can and do provide references in appropriate cases, but I don't gossip about current or former clients on the Internet.
    Apr 14, 2015. 05:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 395: Apr. 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    Q1 isn't due till May 14th.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Truckers Are Slow To Embrace CNG Fuel Systems [View article]
    When a company like ePower is refining the on road performance of a prototype vehicle, 5,000 miles a year is a lot of driving.

    We got our first Gen3 prototype on the road in January 14 and a second Gen3 prototype in September 14. Both tractors were equipped with engines and transmissions that we bought in the aftermarket. We haven't "switched" to or from anything, although our drivetrain continues to evolve as we try to boost our hauling capacity from the 55,000 pounds we demonstrated last August to the 72,000 pounds we're testing today. The two most recent evolutionary changes were the integration of an Eaton transmission and an upgraded drive motor that's rated at 200 hp instead of 150 hp. All of our work since early 2013 has been done in vehicles that were equipped with PbC batteries and we're very happy with the battery's performance.

    FWIW, this article is about fuel surcharges in the trucking industry. Aside from the fact that ePower meeting brought the subject matter to my attention, it's business and progress is irrelevant to the discussion. ePower is a private company that's only responsible to its stockholders and I have no intention of submitting to disingenuous cross-examination from an anonymous Internet poster who's obviously pursuing some sort of personal vendetta.
    Apr 14, 2015. 02:03 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Truckers Are Slow To Embrace CNG Fuel Systems [View article]
    Most of the fleet owners we've spoken with are very forward thinking and actively searching for better ways to deliver the freight. They're also very cautious because they've heard so many fairy tales over the years. The response we've gotten in most cases goes something like this – "Your tests, claims and spreadsheets are all well and good, but the only thing that matters to me is results I get hauling my cargos on my routes using my drivers. Get me a tractor to test for a couple weeks and then I'll tell you how it performs."

    UPS is moving toward CNG because they own their own tractors. A different dynamic prevails at FedEx where they own the trailers and provide the fuel but thousands of independent contractors own the tractors. I have no axe to grind with CNG, but I'm fascinated by the way established ways of doing business are impeding uptake.
    Apr 14, 2015. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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