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John Petersen  

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 399: June 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    ePower has built and demonstrated an engine dominant series hybrid Class 8 drivetrain that can haul weights of up to 74,000 pounds for hundreds of miles in challenging terrain with 40% better fuel economy than conventional mechanical gear. The fact that the drivetrain proved its merit despite the battery problems I've written about is extraordinary. Our work isn't done yet, but if Axion can't solve our problem somebody else will.

    It takes years to develop a commercial product AFTER you have a proof of principal prototype in hand. It takes even longer if your development spending is subject to rigid financial constraints. We're talking about machines here, not chip sets and software.

    Wrightspeed sold its first delivery truck after 4 years of work and $23 million in R&D spending. ePower has taken longer, but it hopes to book it's first sales this year with a cumulative investment of less than $4 million. Since ePower's target market is an order of magnitude larger than Wrightspeed's, it strikes me as money well and carefully spent. There are no guarantees, but the risk/reward potential is phenomenal.
    Jun 14, 2015. 03:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 398: May 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    I don't know whether a longer runway would have made a difference or not. I am sure the Bs were pitched to management as a ready source of short-term cash - a way to bring in $6 million now and another $6 million later. The thing that horrified me is the 1/x conversion calculation with no mechanism to limit the carnage if the price cratered.

    Until recently this forum was a great place to gauge the mood of the market and it was clear last fall that the market was scared and on edge.
    Jun 14, 2015. 03:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 398: May 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    The Cashless exercise provision kicked in 9 months after closing in the 10/22 filing. It was reduced to 4 months at the 11th hour and disclosed after the fact. Unfortunately the only people with a right to complain were the purchasers in the offering, and none of them were damaged by the change.
    Jun 14, 2015. 01:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 399: June 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    ePower had a four year development track record before I got involved. If Jay Bowman had not succeeded where others failed I would not have been interested.
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 398: May 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    A few weeks ago Axion announced an amendment to the B Warrant conversion formula that put a ceiling on the number of additional common shares issuable upon conversion of the remaining "Killer Bs."

    The short and sweet summary is that with the ceiling, a maximum 24.7 million additional shares will be issued to take out the remaining Bs. That means Axion will have a maximum of 120 million fully diluted common shares when all remaining B Warrants have been exercised.

    The more detailed calculations are here:

    http://bit.ly/1FU3uGM

    As near as I can tell the holders of B Warrants were selling the underlying shares into the market as quickly as possible. Since there haven't been any Schedule 13D filings, we have no earthly idea who was doing all the buying.
    Jun 14, 2015. 10:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 398: May 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    (1) Jack Shindle has been our primary Axion contact for a couple years. He was in Florence last week and will be back after the stockholders meeting.

    (2) NS was apparently able to get the performance they needed with air cooling. We're working on a better forced air system since we don't believe our customers will accept the cost or complexity of liquid cooling. Given the way the PbC is designed and manufactured, we think it highly unlikely that Axion will develop an entirely new PbC architecture for us.

    (3) We have bench tested several alternatives including NiMH, LiFePO4 and supercapacitors, both individually and in combination. We have road tested a small NiMH pack that we built used Toyota batteries, Based on the results of that road testing we've ordered an advanced NiMH pack that should be delivered in late July.

    Since we value the price and simplicity of the PbC, we're hopeful that better forced air cooling will mitigate the temperature issues for ePower like it did for NS. We're increasingly confident that NiMH can also serve our needs, albeit at a higher price point. In the final analysis we will take the path that gets us back on the road fastest because first adopters are typically less price sensitive than the broader market.

    When I blogged about Axion I was reading the tea leaves based on available public information, my history with management and my experience with similar small public companies. Things did not progress the way I thought they would. When I write about ePower, it's based on direct first hand knowledge and while timelines have slipped and performance targets have been raised, ePower hasn't missed a single step.

    To make it perfectly clear, I don't believe any potential ePower investors pay attention to this forum. AFAIK, RA is the only ePower stockholder who even bothers because the signal to noise ratio is so dreadful.
    Jun 14, 2015. 09:12 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 399: June 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    I always get a kick out of the "no degree" comments because by that metric Gates, Wozniak, Jobs and Zuckerberg fell notably short of the ideal.
    Jun 13, 2015. 10:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 399: June 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    The purchase order won't become "administrative" until the techies have done their job and found cost-effective solutions.
    Jun 13, 2015. 03:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 399: June 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    Rick> I'm curious, but not to the point that I'd be willing to enter into an NDA to get the information. I understand why Axion keeps so much of its technical information secret, but like you I think the creative class might be better served if inventors could buy PbCs on eBay.
    Jun 13, 2015. 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 399: June 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    Since AFAIK Axion has never discussed an "improved version" and Edmund found the ported package patent on his own, I think concluding that this is "a PR exercise in disguise" requires an enormous leap of no-faith.

    I know the second set of batteries Axion delivered to ePower were significantly better for our application than the first, but I couldn't tell you what the changes were if you held a gun to my head.
    Jun 13, 2015. 01:03 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 399: June 8, 2015 [View instapost]
    Those are interesting questions Rick, but they ignore the related warranty obligations that could make our future business very costly. Both companies have a problem and they're trying to find a solution. Give it a rest and let the two technical teams do their jobs.
    Jun 13, 2015. 11:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 398: May 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    Snide baseless comments like this are almost enough to make hope that Axion's efforts are unsuccessful so that I can walk away from this cesspool and not look back.
    Jun 13, 2015. 11:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 398: May 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    I checked my e-mails before giving you the dates. There were updates in December, March and May.

    Left to his own devices, Jay prefers a monthly schedule, but his ability to send something out depends in large part on how the active projects are progressing. Now that we're working with Axion on cooling issues, testing battery alternatives and finishing the integration of the V1 electronic control system for the Eaton transmission, I'd expect the pace to pick up a bit.
    Jun 13, 2015. 06:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 398: May 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    ePower sent out investor updates on December 4, 2014, March 8, 2015 and May 2, 2015. Today is June 12th.

    It also sent out an Operational and Financial Overview for 2014 and Q1-15 on April 16, 2015.

    Jay and I would both like to distribute updates more often because it keeps our stockholders engaged, but ePower's updates are usually written to describe important events and accomplishments. This year the steps have been bigger, but they've been further apart.

    On balance, I think our stockholder communications record is pretty solid. I've never seen another privately held company do the job as well as Jay has for years.
    Jun 12, 2015. 05:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 398: May 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    Name a few.
    Jun 11, 2015. 05:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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