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John Petersen

 
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  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    The B Warrantholders are only guaranteed a return of principal if there are legions of eager buyers waiting to soak up the shares issuable in a cashless exercise.

    Without huge buying demand the price will simply fall more rapidly.

    If there were only a handful of B Warrantholders and they were willing to act in concert despite the legal risks, they might be able to cobble together some sort of takeover strategy, but I don't see how anybody profits from a cashless exercise.
    Nov 16, 2014. 07:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    When I created the 2006 vintage chart you're obsessing over, the goal was to highlight the cost per kWh of storing electricity in a variety of battery chemistries. It used data that was accurate in 2006 and much has changed as the PbC technology matured. The one thing that hasn't changed is the PbC's market leading low cost of storing electricity for future use.

    ePower has a wide variety of application requirements, but a specific energy density or range of energy densities isn't one of them. A higher energy density battery might save us a few pounds on the tractor, but we'd have to sacrifice power and simplicity in the process. In other words we're happy to sacrifice a little energy for rapid cycling, high power and problem free performance.
    Nov 15, 2014. 09:34 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    The SEC frowns on blatant market manipulation. In fact, people go to jail for it. It's a great strategy if you look good in orange.
    Nov 15, 2014. 07:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    Very few projects have an energy density requirement.

    Once you move beyond portable electronics and cars with plugs, energy density is simply not that important. It's certainly not the be all and end all for electrical engineers who design projects and clearly understand the distinction between hype and value.
    Nov 15, 2014. 07:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    Energy density is of utmost importance in a very small number of applications. It's mission critical for portable electronics that need to carry as much energy as possible for long charge life. It's mission critical for cars with plugs that need to carry as much energy as possible for long driving range.

    For most other applications energy density is a secondary or even tertiary consideration, particularly in applications where cost matters.

    Project managers evaluate storage devices by their ability to do the work required in a specific application. Neophytes focus on energy density because it's an easy concept for them to grasp. Professionals look at the work requirements of the application and pick the device that best fits their needs.
    Nov 15, 2014. 07:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 379: Nov. 5, 2014 [View instapost]
    Globally heavy trucking consumes 35% of ground transportation fuel. If ePower works in the States it will work everywhere else too. Let that one sink in for a while.
    Nov 15, 2014. 06:54 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    While I won't agree with the character assassination that's all too common in this forum, I think it was time for a change at the tiller. We have a new CEO who seems to have better communication skills and a more open style than Tom. I think that's a good thing for Axion.

    It's time to get rid of the soundproof black canvas and take the PbC to the world. Based on what I've seen so far I think that's exactly what DDG plans to do.
    Nov 15, 2014. 06:29 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    It probably would have been better to say:

    "Energy density is important when size and weight are mission critical application parameters and money is no object. When money, power and rapid cycling are the most important application parameters, the PbC is a solid contender."

    I agree that 'irrelevant' was an overstatement.
    Nov 15, 2014. 06:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    I think I've made it abundantly clear that I don't share the widely held view that Tom was ever disingenuous with stockholders. The more I come to understand the battery business the more I hate the unending product validation, testing and supply chain security processes that OEMs must implement.

    In 20/20 hindsight Axion would have probably done better on the revenue front if we had stuck with the original plan of starting with small users and working our way up the first tier. But it's hard to resist the superstar who says "Stick with me kid and I'll have you farting through silk."

    The most instructive example I can imagine is ePower's non-relationship with Cummins. They've spent 15 months doing their homework and conducting an exhaustive application engineering review. During that time period they've given us tons of free engineering support and they've been incredibly helpful, but we haven't bought a product from Cummins yet and we won't be able to buy products from Cummins until they decide to accept ePower as a customer. We're buying our Cummins products second-hand because we can't buy them directly from the manufacturer yet.

    If a first tier company like Cummins can spend 15 months deciding whether they're willing to sell their products to an outfit like ePower, how much time do you think they'd spend deciding whether they wanted to buy an entirely new class of products from a company like Axion?

    We were all hopelessly naive when BMW made the trek to New Castle in the summer of 2009, came back with good first-round testing results in late 2009 and did the joint ELBC presentation with Axion in September 2010.

    The only thing I know for sure is that trying to do business with the first tier is like trying to have sex with a gorilla. You're not done until she says you're done or she kills you for failure to perform.

    I'm not convinced that things are quite as bleak as they seemed during the conference call. A brand new CEO has one opportunity to hit the expectations reset button and he'd a damned fool if he doesn't take the chance when it's sitting in his lap. Were I wearing DDG's hat I'd have done exactly the same thing.

    DDG said that Coatesville had been in the works for two years, but research by Axionistas has shown that the project was the victim of serial problems and issues at the end user level – problems and issues that had nothing to do with either Axion or the developer. I don't believe Tom was making up stories about there being several projects in the pipeline, although it's pretty obvious that the pipeline is severely constipated because the ultimate customers do not share our sense of urgency.
    Nov 15, 2014. 06:12 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power, A Deep Alpha Opportunity With A Clear Timeline [View article]
    Actually, I think he wants football players to compete in womens' gymnastics because those cute little girls are incredibly energetic.
    Nov 15, 2014. 05:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    We know that of the four PIPErs took a small position in the recent offering because it filed a Schedule 13G which reports the ownership of 482,000 shares, A warrants and B warrants.

    We have no earthly idea whether any of the other PIPErs participated, but the absence of additional SEC filings is solid evidence that they didn't buy large blocks.
    Nov 15, 2014. 04:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 379: Nov. 5, 2014 [View instapost]
    We're going to do our level best and see if we can develop something the trucking industry will buy. The odds are not in our favor, but success could change the world and an individual doesn't get many chances to change the world.
    Nov 15, 2014. 04:10 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    Members of The Eulenspiegel Society?

    http://bit.ly/1H2f31v
    Nov 15, 2014. 03:36 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    Tom served for 10 years as the president of National Elevator Industry Inc., a trade association that represents elevator manufacturers and contractors in their labor negotiations and manages the industry's pension funds.
    Nov 15, 2014. 03:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    Since there are some debates that can never reach a conclusion, I'll abstain from further participation than this one. I think you're all suffering from battered stockholders syndrome, but that's just one man's view.
    Nov 15, 2014. 03:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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