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John Petersen

 
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  • Axion Power Concentrator 379: Nov. 5, 2014 [View instapost]
    RA> We're up to about a dozen local FedEx contractors who want to test the tractors and Jay thinks that list will grow quickly if the initial results are favorable. Since FedEx has approved our plan to rotate the tractors through their local contractors, the only remaining hurdLe is getting apportioned plates so we can cross more than one state line on a run. While I suspect that we'll try to keep one tractor on hand at the shop while the other is out working, the busy season is fast approaching and it won't surprise me to see both hard at work from time to time.

    The shop team is already working on tractor number three and units four, five and six are in our shop waiting their turn. We have the process refined enough that the conversions should each take three or four weeks. While our timeline may slip a bit as we integrate the Eaton transmission and a stouter Marathon drive motor (200 hp vs 150) things are proceeding at a healthy clip.
    Nov 11, 2014. 08:21 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power: Out Of The PIPE And Into The Light - Part II [View article]
    You can't have a bankruptcy without debt and Axion doesn't have any. Nevertheless it's good to see that you know nothing about the companies you choose to criticize.,
    Feb 2, 2014. 04:05 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 269: September 20: 10Q Filing For Q2; Two Axion Forbes Articles; John Petersen On PIPE Mechanics & Incentives [View instapost]
    Tom just forcefully reiterated his statement about expecting significant orders before the next Conference Call.
    Sep 26, 2013. 10:34 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Had To Repay Its DOE Loan [View article]
    I have never been wrong about Tesla. Read the articles for yourself and show me the errors; any errors.

    The market's response to Tesla's ugly business realities continues to confound me, but predicting the actions of a psychotic market is beyond the capability of my murky crystal ball. Thats why I rely on brute analysis of indisputable fact.
    Sep 1, 2013. 07:31 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 252: July 17: Axion Power Receives Additional Purchase Order From EPower Engine Systems To Supply PbC® Batteries And Battery Management Systems For (10) Class 8 Heavy-Duty Trucks [View instapost]
    If you download the entire sustainability report you'll find this gem on page 30:

    "NS 999 LEADS THE CHARGE

    Norfolk Southern began developing a battery-powered locomotive in 2007, part of a larger initiative to explore alternative-powered engines to save on fuel costs, lower emissions, and reduce reliance on foreign oil sources.

    Generating the amount of battery power needed to run a locomotive is much more challenging than that needed to run an automobile, and current battery technologies pose limitations for rail-industry applications. Essentially, we are pioneering the field of battery-powered locomotives.

    In fall 2009, working with industry partners and scientists at Penn State University, we unveiled NS 999, a prototype electric four-axle switcher locomotive. The eco-friendly unit, built on a reused 1969 EMD GP38 body, was powered by a bank of 1,080 lead-acid batteries and equipped with a unique regenerative braking system designed to recharge the batteries during operation.

    Since then, we have reworked the battery management system to address technical challenges that arose during trial field operations. In 2013, we plan to roll out the next generation NS 999, outfitted with a bank of more technologically advanced hybrid lead-carbon batteries developed by industry partner Axion Power International.

    In addition to NS 999, we are continuing work on a prototype battery-powered road locomotive that would move freight over long distances.

    We are optimistic that our latest efforts will provide a foundation for development of affordable battery-powered locomotives.

    “We’re really excited about it,” said Gibson Barbee, our senior engineer of energy, who has been involved with NS 999 from the start. “It’s all about perseverance, to continue working and moving forward.”

    There's a "Download Report" link in the bottom right corner of the entry screen for everybody who wants to get a copy of Page 30 suitable for framing.
    Jul 18, 2013. 10:18 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plug-in Vehicles and Their Dirty Little Secret [View article]
    The rooftop solar system has a virtue for generating green electricity. That virtue does not, however, transfer to the device that uses the virtuous electricity. Once the electrons leave the solar panel it does not matter whether they power an EV or a light bulb and neither use makes them any more virtuous.

    By the way, the last time I checked solar panels are not much good for night time charging.
    Jan 6, 2011. 06:25 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lithium-Ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles: Upgrading the Storm Watch to Storm Warning [View article]
    anonymiser, the conclusions that it can't be done in a reasonable period of time or with a reasonable expectation of success come from organizations with far greater expertise than me. I don't believe anything is impossible with enough money and enough creativity. I do, however, believe that paying a premium price for a stock in the expectation that the creativity will be forthcoming is a fool's game. I've been representing development stage companies for far too long to ignore the reality that the gulf between an idea and a commercial product is immense, and most companies never traverse it.
    Jan 4, 2010. 05:21 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence [View article]
    Mrfnd, the scarce commodity is the batteries. One GM Volt uses the same batteries that could be used to power 10 Prius class hybrids. One Nissan uses the same batteries that could be used to power 15 Prius class hybrids. So for every EV you build, you are going to keep 10 to 15 Prius class hybrids off the road.
    Aug 26, 2009. 11:14 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 379: Nov. 5, 2014 [View instapost]
    Now that everybody is done obsessing over the potential adverse impact of the B Warrants if everything goes to hell in a handbag, it's probably worthwhile to remember that the primary reason people invest money is to make money. The structure of the recent offering gives the new investors a huge potential for multi-bag returns if things go well. They may have demanded some down-side protection but the real prize is the up-side.

    The B Warrants are a bail-out device that can potentially shift the risk of loss from warrant holders to the other stockholders, but the profit potential for the unit investors comes from a stock price that's north of $3.80 per share, preferably far north.

    I understand that everybody feels like they've been put through a meat grinder after almost five years with the price chart from hell, but our little company has developed one hell of a battery and I think everybody but the trolls will agree that Axion's current market capitalization is a joke.

    The stock is up 8.5% today and trading at book value, which is amazing when you figure that half of that book value is cash!

    While Axion may be able to cut operating costs enough to get a year of runway from its available resources, my experience with similar deals tells me that DDG views the B Warrants as his next source of cash. While it's hard to get holders of long-dated warrants to exercise early, the holders of short-dated warrants can be easily moved by modest early exercise discounts, or for that matter other incentives such as fractional warrants at a higher price.

    I fully expect Friday's conference call to be a breath of fresh air as DDG lays out his vision for Axion's future and his plan for moving the company forward. He has already shown a willingness to lift the black canvas and show the world what Axion has accomplished. Hopefully he'll be willing to shed more light on the complexity of the sales cycle, including the wide variety of reasons that unforeseen delays can knock current expectations into a cocked hat.

    The shoes I stand in make me more sympathetic with delays than many who see them as red-flags that warn of failure. It takes an incurable optimist to assume responsibility for running a company that's trying to do something very new and very different. That character trait rarely gives adequate consideration to Murphy Law. I frequently tell clients that my standard rule is "It takes twice as long and costs twice as much, but only if everything goes well." That doesn't make me any better at forecasting timing or budgets.

    Axion has a great stockholder base and this Concentrator offers the best view of what the base is thinking that I've ever seen. What DDG needs to do is give the base an unvarnished appraisal of the opportunities and challenges. If he can do that I think the base will rally around him and the future will look very different from the past.
    Nov 10, 2014. 12:19 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 377 Oct. 30 '14: Axion Up-List Completed; S-1 10/22 Revision;NS-999 In Testing; Axion Nasdaq SPO Page Up; EPower & Axion Present At The Battery Show [View instapost]
    I've been quiet for a few days because I'm trying to figure out how all the pieces of this crazy market puzzle fit together.

    I'm also tired of the drama and fed up with feeling like a lightning rod. Arguing with friends violates my "life is too short" rule.

    When the mob mentality dissipates and civility and rational analysis return to this forum, so will I. Until then I'll read and keep most of my thoughts to myself.
    Oct 30, 2014. 09:14 AM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 359 August 17 '14: 10-Q For Q2 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    I was invited to speak at The Battery Show last year and declined because we couldn't come to an agreement on expense reimbursement. When Jay was invited to speak this year, they were very happy to have me appear as ePower's public face. While I was initially interested in arranging for an outside parking space for the tractor, the organizers worked very hard to get us affordable space in the Exhibition Hall because we make the biggest HEV in the world. They ended up offering us a 20x30 space near the conference dining area. Since the footprint for the day cab is 9-1/2 x 24, we had plenty of extra space for a battery exhibit and invited Axion to send a representative and display.

    On July 29th one of scheduled speakers for our panel cancelled because he was called for jury duty. When the conference organizers asked the speakers if we had any suggestions for a suitable replacement, Axion seemed like a perfect fit. When the slot was offered to Axion, they promptly accepted but it was unclear who they were going to send as a speaker. I'm very glad they picked Mike Romeo because he's an impressive young man who knows the PbC inside out and this will be a technically oriented audience.
    Aug 19, 2014. 07:36 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 340 June 06 '14: Definitive Reverse Split Consent Solicitation; Q1 '1 CC Transcript & MP3 Available; Q1 '14 Filing Released;Axion Receives 4 Powercubes Order [View instapost]
    Last August NS put out a press release on a report if filed with the international not-for-profit CDP that outlines its strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and its environmental footprint.

    http://bit.ly/SABVQu

    Just for grins I registered with the CDP's website and pulled a copy of the NS Report for last year. Under the heading "Most substantial business decisions made during reporting year that were influenced by climate change driver aspects of our strategy" NS reported:

    "In 2012, Norfolk Southern proceeded to enhance the battery management system to address technical challenges that arose during trial field operations. Norfolk Southern began developing a battery-powered locomotive in 2007, part of a larger initiative to explore alternative-powered engines to save on fuel costs, lower emissions, and reduce reliance on foreign oil sources. In 2013, we plan to roll out the next generation NS 999, outfitted with a bank of more technologically advanced hybrid lead-carbon batteries developed by industry partner Axion Power International.

    Generating the amount of battery power needed to run a locomotive is much more challenging than that needed to run an automobile, and current battery technologies pose limitations for rail industry applications. Essentially, we are pioneering the field of battery-powered locomotives. We are optimistic that our latest efforts will provide a foundation for development of affordable battery-powered locomotives."
    Jun 11, 2014. 08:12 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    Toyota has been the undisputed leader in electric drive technology since it launched the Prius 15 years ago. Like most big companies they're pretty secretive about their technology development efforts, but they do a great job and it's never wise to discount Toyota's technological prowess.

    Everybody in the world is trying to make the gigafactory obsolete before it's built and I'd give long odds that somebody will succeed. Even the DOE wants to take lithium-ion battery costs down to $300 per kWh by 2015 and $150 per kWh by 2020. The problem is that lithium-ion batteries are a very mature technology and don't offer many opportunities for significant future performance enhancements or cost reductions. If big gains were possible, Sony, Panasonic, LG Chem and Samsung would have already found them.

    There are any number of future-tech ideas in development including silicon anodes, lithium-sulfur, solid-state and lithium-air, but they'll all require very different materials, manufacturing equipment and manufacturing methods. They most certainly won't be manufactured in a Tesla gigafactory.
    Apr 8, 2014. 07:11 AM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 291: Dec. 22 '13: Q3 '13 Results; Sale Of PowerCube™ ESS; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    Latest from Jay:

    Hi Every One
    We have a running truck producing 125KW, still some minor bugs to work out but nothing serious. Hope you and your families all have a great holiday, I am looking forward to an exciting New Year. Thank you all for your help and support.
    Dec 24, 2013. 02:06 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 276: Oct. 17 '13: Axion & Norfolk Southern At ASME Rail Conference; John Petersen Joins EPower [View instapost]
    This is the 200th Concentrator since the APH took over from Mayascribe and I want to express my deepest thanks for all the hard work. You've done a yeoman's job APH, even if you are a little lenient when it comes to the delete comment function.
    Oct 16, 2013. 05:32 PM | 26 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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